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Option update 6-1-07: Dow Jones implied volatility collapses suggesting less risk

Dow Jones(NYSE:DJ) volatility collapses on expectations of a deal. Dow Jones is recently up $7.76 to $61.12 on speculation Rupert Murdoch's News Corp(NYSE: NWS) will raise his $60 cash bid made on 5/1/07. Dow Jones controlling shareholders, the Bancroft family, agreed to meet with Murdoch. General Electric Company (NYSE:GE)has been speculated as submitting a stock for stock bid for Dow Jones. GE's stock for stock bid could be attractive to the Bancroft family because of GE's low beta of 0.85 compared to News Corp's beta of 1.54 if Murdoch would add a stock component to his bid. Dow Jones June option implied volatility has collapsed to 45 from 70 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing risk.

New York Times(NYSE:NYT) implied volatility suggests non-directional Risk. NYT is recently up .71 to $25.82. NYT over all option implied volatility of 24 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price risk.

Option volume leaders today are: Dendreon (NASDAQ-DNDN), Apple, Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL), Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) and Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO).

Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

The difference between YouTube and the boob tube

Several television networks are talking about creating a joint venture to compete with Google Inc.'s (NASDAQ:GOOG) YouTube. These networks would include Viacom Inc. (NYSE:VIA), News Corp's (NYSE:NWS) Fox, General Electric Co.'s (NYSE:GE) NBC, and CBS Corp. (NYSE:CBS). Currently, such a venture exists only in theory, and, in my opinion, this is where it should stay for a variety of reasons:

First, joint ventures between two companies have had problems because of conflicting interests. Taking four companies that are intense competitors, is just looking for problems.

Second, even though the combined groups' web presence may be larger than YouTube's current viewership, the viral nature of YouTube's viewership has a long way to go. Many of AOL's competitors made this same mistake in the 1990's. They assumed AOL was peaking just as growth was starting to accelerate.

Third, Google is now behind YouTube. Google is a perfect fit in terms of culture and marketing. Notice the Video Search function on Google. It is a perfect fit for YouTube.

Fourth, the YouTube audience may not be the same as the television web audience. I mean, is the person who hits Bill O'Reilly's web site the same one who watches YouTube?

Fifth, YouTube has a huge budget to spend with the backing of Google and can match any joint venture's spending dollar for dollar.

Finally, in order for the joint venture to be successful, YouTube and Google need to make a mistake. They have not made one yet. Until that happens, a lot of money can be lost by the joint venture.

Some joint ventures are better in concept than reality. This is one of them.

Doug Roberts is the Founder and Chief Investment Strategist for FollowtheFed.com, an independent research firm focusing on investment strategies using the Federal Reserve's impact on the stock prices.

Top Ten business stories: Week ending Nov. 24

Here are what I consider to be the top business headlines for the week ending November 24:

10. The Other White Metal: The cost of platinum has hit a record high on rumors that traders will soon be allowed to speculate on the precious metal. On Thursday, prices touched $1,402.50 per ounce before falling back to $1,390. The previous record of $1,340 was set in May. Platinum is a key component for catalytic converters in car engines. World demand is outpacing supply -- forcing prices up by 50% this year.

9. OJ OD: Public outrage forces Rupert Murdoch, CEO of News Corporation (NYSE:NWS) to cancel a TV interview and controversial book by O.J. Simpson. The deal with Mr. Murdoch's broadcasting and publishing companies was worth $3.5 million. In the book entitled, "If I Did It," Simpson describes how he would have killed his ex-wife, Nicole, and her friend, Ronald Goldman. Simpson was ultimately acquitted of murdering his ex-wife and her friend, but was later found liable for the deaths in a civil trial and ordered to pay $33.5 million in damages -- which has never been collected.

Continue reading Top Ten business stories: Week ending Nov. 24

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Last updated: February 13, 2012: 04:33 PM

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