Now this is a real surprise, the good kind.New home sales surged 11% in the past month, to a seasonally adjusted rate of 384,000, according to the Wall Street Journal(subscription required).

The Commerce Department reported that year over year, sales are still down 21.3%. The median price was $206,000 in June, down 12% from $234,000 in June 2008.

The economy is sending mixed signals right now.

Unemployment is up, and consumer sentiment is down. Plenty of companies are posting profits, but they're taking advantage of lower expectations and cost-cutting rather than revenue growth from an economic recovery. Rents are under pressure – both residential and commercial.

Given last week's news that new home sales have plunged and that new home prices continue to fall, what is Wall Street expecting from homebuilders Centex Corp. (NYSE: CTX), Pulte Homes Inc. (NYSE: PHM), and DR Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI) when they report quarterly results this week?

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters anticipate that Dallas-based Centex will report that it narrowed its net loss in its fiscal third quarter to $3.27 per share. In the same period of last year, the loss was $7.94 per share. Revenue in the third quarter is expected to total $895.3 million, down 53.0% from last year. For the full year, the loss is expected to reach $7.36 per share on revenue of $4.0 billion, which compares to a $21.69 per share loss on $8.3 billion in sales in 2008. Centex has posted bigger-than-expected losses in the past five quarters. So the consensus recommendation of analysts remains to hold CTX, though the long-range EPS growth forecast is 9.0%. The share price has fallen 20.0% just since the beginning of the year, and it is 70.7% lower than it was a year ago. Centex suspended its quarterly dividends back in October.

Sales of new homes fell by 37.8 percent from 2007 sales. Total sales in 2008 were 482,000 compared to 776,000 (the total sold in 2007), according to Mission Residential. The median new home price dropped by 9.3 on a a year-over-year basis.

These numbers may actually be skewed higher because the monthly sales data does not reflect cancellations, which means sales are probably lower and actual inventories higher. Because of these adjustments the actual supply on the market jumped to 12.9 months in December. Don't expect home builder stocks to recover any time soon.

U.S. new home sales fell 5.3% to a seasonally adjusted, annualized pace of 433,000 in October -- the lowest annualized level since 1991, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Wednesday (pdf).

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected October new home sales to register a 450,000 annualized rate.

Further, new home sales are down 40.1% compared to a year ago. In 2007, 776,000 new homes were sold, compared to 1.05 million in 2006. And the median sales price for a new house decreased to $218,000 in October, a drop of 7% in the past 12 months.

Sales fell in two regions -- declining 18% in the West and 6% in the South. Sales rose 22.6% in the Northeast and 6% in the Midwest.

One bright spot: inventories declined 8% in October to 381,000 units, a roughly 11-month supply at the current sales pace. Inventories have now declined 25.7% in the past year, the largest decline since the federal government started tracking data in 1963.

October data is mixed

Economist Peter Dawson called the October new home sales stats a smorgasbord of data, some positive, some negative.

"We did see a substantial decline in inventories, so that's a positive. The problem is, the rate of new home sales is now so low, due to the recession and credit crunch, that it's still going to take a long time to work off inventories, which are still very high at 11 months," Dawson said.

New home sales in the U.S. fell 2.5% to a seasonally adjusted, annualized pace of 512,000 in May, with sales in the Western U.S. plunging to a 26-year low, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Wednesday (pdf).

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected May new home sales to register a 515,000 annualized rate.

Sales are still down about 40% compared to a year ago. In 2007, 776,000 new homes were sold, compared to 1.05 million in 2006.

Meanwhile, inventories rose to a 10.9-month supply in May at the current sales pace, compared to a 10.6-month supply in April. A typical, healthy housing market has a three to four month supply of homes for sale.

Sales fell in three regions: 11.6% in the West, 7.9% in the Northeast, and 5.1% in the Midwest. Sales rose a scant 0.4% in the South. Further, the West's 114,000 annualized sales pace was that region's slowest sales pace in 26 years.

The nearly always-on-the-mark Bloomberg News columnist Caroline Baum reminds investors/traders -- and potential home buyers -- that one should not jump into summer by jumping into a home purchase (if you can avoid it).

Baum notes that one has to view April's 6.3% increase in existing home sales in the proper context: housing has been down so much and for so long that every incremental pop up looks like a housing sector recovery. It isn't.

New and existing home sales peaked in July 2005 and September 2005, respectively, but housing starts didn't until January 2006. The result? A massive inventory build.

A record housing recession

Single-family starts are down 63% from their January 2006 peak, easily 'topping' peak-to-trough declines of 38% in 1973-75, and 57% in 1984-1991, and approaching the 65% slide in the housing recession of 1977-1981, Baum says.

U.S. new home sales unexpectedly rose 3.2% (PDF) to a seasonally adjusted, annualized pace of 526,000 in April 2008 -- the first rise in new home sales in six months, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Tuesday.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected April 2008 new home sales to register a 522,000 annualized rate.

Nevertheless, sales are still down about 42% in the last 12 months.

Meanwhile, inventories dipped to a 10.6-month supply in April 2008 at the current sales pace, compared to an 11-month supply in March 2008 and a 9.8-month supply in February 2008.

Also, the median sales price increased 9.1% in April 2008 to $246,100.

Sales rose in three regions: Northeast, up 42%; West, up 8.3%; and the Midwest, up 5.8%. Sales fell 2.4% in the South.

Economic Analysis: Sales did nudge-up slightly in April 2008, but the key stats remains the large, 10.6-month supply of unsold new homes and the 42% decline in new home sales compared to a year ago. A normal, healthy market has a 3-4 month supply of new homes for sale, and that fact, combined with the large decline in year-over-year sales, suggests a market with scant demand. Investors / traders should also ignore the one-month rise in the median sales price: a trend takes at least 3-4 months to form, and the higher one-month median price jump could simply reflect a large number of lower-priced homes taken off the market, or not sold.

U.S. new home sales fell to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized pace of 526,000 in March 2008 - - a 17-year low, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Thursday. (pdf)

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected March 2008 new home sales to register a 580,000 annualized rate.

Sales have now declined for five consecutive months, and are down 36.6% in the last 12 months.

Meanwhile, inventories surged to an 11-month supply at the March 2008 sales rate, up from a 9.8-month supply in February. Inventories are at their highest level since 1981. A healthy housing market typically has a 3-4 month supply.

Also, February 2008 sales were revised down slightly, to 575,000 from the earlier released 590,000.

In addition, the median sales price of new houses sold in March 2008 was $227,600; the average sales price was $292,200. The median sales price has now decreased 13.3% in the past 12 months.

Sales fell in every U.S. region: declining 19.4% in the Northeast, 12.9% in the West, 12.5% in the Midwest, and 4.6% in the South.

Sales of new homes fell 2.8% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 588,000 in January 2008, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Wednesday (pdf). Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a seasonally adjusted rate of 600,000.

Meanwhile, the December 2007 seasonally-adjusted total was revised to 605,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2008 fell 4.3% to $216,000; the average sales price rose 0.7% to $276,600.

In addition, the seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January 2008 was 482,000 -- representing a 9.9-month supply at current the current sales rate.

Economist Steve Affinito told BloggingStocks Wednesday the January 2008 new home sales data is in-line with earlier data on existing home sales, indicating that the housing slump is far from over.

Purchases of new homes fell 4.7% in December 2007 to a 12-year low, the U.S. Commerce Department reported Monday, in a statement (pdf).

Sales fell to an annual rate of 604,000 homes -- the fewest since February 1995. Economists had expected a 645,000 annual rate.

Difficult 'comps'

In 2007, sales dropped 26% to 774,000, compared to 1.05 million in 2006. However, economists cautioned that the 2007 new home sale drop should be evaluated with a qualification in mind: the new home market registered 4 consecutive years of above-trend growth, which creates "difficult camparisons" -- hard statistics to beat, year-over-year.

In addition, the seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of December was 495,000. The statistic represents a supply of 9.6 months at the current sales rate.

Several major pieces of economic news were released this morning, and all were good. Personal Spending rose more than expected, the fastest growth in two years. The Chicago PMI report rose more than expected as well. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment report seemed to hold its own. In addition, the core inflation number came in within the Fed's target range.

This is a major contrast to the numbers earlier in the week. Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence reports were terrible, and both Existing and New Home Sales indicated that there appears to be no end in sight for the housing slump. The only good number was Second-Quarter GDP. However, this was prior to the turmoil created in the markets by the credit crisis.

Then, why did the stock market rally on the bad news and is going down today on these positive economic reports? It's the liquidity. The stock market is driven by money and credit. As there is greater availability and lower cost, the market performs better. Who is the ultimate gatekeeper for this? You guessed it: the Federal Reserve.