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Daily option update 12-26: Markets up in light trading

Posted Dec 26th 2006 5:15PM by Eric Buscemi (RSS feed)
Filed under: Apple Inc (AAPL), Altria Group (MO), , Lilly (Eli) (LLY)

U.S. stocks were slightly higher on light trading volume. The Dow was up 0.45%, the NASDAQ 100 up 0.35%, the S&P 500 up 0.35%, while 10-year bond rates decreased to 4.6030%. The CBOE VIX was up .02 to 11.38.

Telik Inc's (NASDAQ: TELK) January option implied volatility collapsed after disappointing data. Telik was recently down $11.47 to $4.79. TELK Phase 3 trails related to its cancer drug Telcyta (treatment for non-small cell lung cancer & ovarian cancer) "did not achieve statistically significant improvement in overall survival." JANY & STFL downgraded Telik to sell. Telik's January option implied volatility was at 85, according to Track Data, below a level of 215 from last week, suggesting decreasing risk.

Eli Lilly's (NYSE: LLY) January 55 calls were active on 6,163 contracts as Lilly rallies. Eli Lilly recently rallied .43 to $51.77, after a Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington, D.C. ruled its 2011 Zyprexa patent was valid. Lilly faced pressure last week on documents leaked to the NY Times indicating Zryprexa (schizophrenia treatment) had understated weight gain and diabetes risk. Lilly's Zyprexa accounts for approximately 25% of Lilly's sales & 50% of its EPS. Lilly's January option implied volatility of 19 was near its 26-week average of 19, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risks.

U.S. Bancorp's (NYSE: USB) calls active on company going ex-dividend on 12/27/06. USB goes ex-dividend on 12/27/06, paying a dividend of .40 cents. USB total intra-day call option volume was heavy on over 962,946 contracts, according to Track Data. Heavy call volume was attributable to traders hoping to take advantage of option exercises, call pricing discrepancies and low option transaction commission fees.

Liquid stocks with option implied volatility above 90, according to Track Data: AtheroGenics (NASDAQ: AGIX), Momenta Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: MNTA), Dendreon Corp (NASDAQ: DNDN), Escala Group (NASDAQ: ESCL), and Northfield Laboratories (NASDAQ: NFLD).

Option volume leaders today were Telik Inc, Altria Group (NYSE: MO), Clear Channel Communications (NYSE: CCU), and Apple Computer (NASDAQ: AAPL).

Options analysis provided by Paul Foster, options strategist for Theflyonthewall.com.

Daily option update 12-20: Higher bid expected for Redback

Posted Dec 21st 2006 8:48AM by Eric Buscemi (RSS feed)
Filed under: Google (GOOG), Apple Inc (AAPL), General Electric (GE), Pfizer (PFE)

U.S. stocks were mixed in trading yesterday. The Dow was down 0.01%, the NASDAQ 100 down 0.01%, the S&P 500 up 0.08%, and 10-year bond rates decreased to 4.5950%. The CBOE VIX was down .14 to 10.35. In the next twelve days, only six will be trading days.

Redback Networks Inc.'s (NASDAQ: RBAK) call activity suggests another bid above Ericsson's (NASDAQ: ERIC) $25 bid is expected. Redback agreed to sell itself to Ericsson for $25 per share in cash, but has been recently trading at $25.58. Redback January 25 calls have traded 587 times on transaction volume of 21,094 contracts according to Track Data. Redback January 25 calls are bid .85 cents, suggesting option market makers expect a higher hostile buyout bid.

Google Inc.'s (NASDAQ: GOOG) January option implied volatility of 24 suggests decreasing risk. Google is recently trading at $465.28, and with a January option implied volatility of 24 is at the low end of range according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price risk.

The Brink's Company's (NYSE:BCO) options have been busy on higher volatility as Brink's trades up to a new record. Brink's, a leader in security and risk management services, is recently up $1.62 to $64.49. Pirate Capital, an activist hedge fund with an 8.5% stake in the company, has been encouraging Brink's to immediately unlock long-term shareholder value. Brink's has a market cap of $3.1 billion with long term debt of $144 million, and reported 2005 revenues of $2.5 billion. Brink's call option volume of 2,797 contracts compares to put volume of 724 contracts. The January option implied volatility of 33 is above its 26-week average of 28 according to Track Data, suggesting increasing price risks.

Option volume leaders today were General Electric Company (NYSE:GE), Northfield Laboratories (NASDAQ:NFLD), Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) and Apple Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL).

Options analysis provided by Paul Foster, options strategist for Theflyonthewall.com.