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Analyst initiations: RIMM, QCOM, DVA, DPS, ASTI, VPHM, NILE

MOST NOTEWORTHY: DaVita, Dr. Pepper Snapple Group and Ascent Solar were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Suntrust expects DaVita's (NYSE: DVA) dominant market share to help in commercial contract negotiations and they view potential Medicare reimbursement changes as more of an opportunity than a risk. The firm started shares with a Buy rating and $62 target.
  • JP Morgan initiated Dr. Pepper Snapple (NYSE: DPS) with an Underweight rating and expects declining free cash flow in 2008, which they note would be the third straight year.
  • Ascent Solar (NASDAQ: ASTI) was assumed with a Hold rating and $14 target at Jefferies. The firm sees high development risk with the company just beginning to operate its pilot line and commencing initial planning for its first 30 MW commercial line.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Stanford initiated ViroPharma (NASDAQ: VPHM) with a Buy rating and $13 target.
  • Goldman assumed Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) with Buy ratings and targets of $163 and $55, respectively.
  • Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) was initiated at Thomas Weisel with an Underweight rating and $44 target.

Early analyst calls (CSX) (CHU)

Morgan Stanley downgraded China Unicom (NYSE:CHU) from "outperform" to "neutral", according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that UBS downgraded CSX (NYSE:CSX) from "buy" to "neutral"

Abercrombie (NYSE:ANF) cut to Market Perform at FBR, according to 24/7 Wall St. The financial website also reports that Blue Nile (NASDAQ:NILE) Started as Underweight at Thomas Weisel.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Analyst initiations: TCO AZN, NILE, AWK, HPY, ABH

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Taubman Centers, AstraZeneca and Blue Nile were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Friedman Billings believes Taubman Centers (NYSE: TCO) is very well positioned with its upscale regional malls and lifestyle centers to weather the current challenges in the current retail environment. Shares were assumed with an Outperform rating and $64 target.
  • JP Morgan initiated AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) with a Neutral rating. The firm expects investor confidence in the coming months to improve as expectations are AZN's pipeline is low.
  • Deutsche Bank finds Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) fairly valued given the challenging economic environment and rising commodity prices and initiated shares with a Hold rating and $48 target.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Analyst initiations: NVDA, ENTR and CLF

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Nvidia, Entropic Comm and Cleveland Cliffs were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Piper initiated Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) with a Neutral rating and $23 target and believes the rate at which the company gained market share over the past two years is unsustainable. The firm expects EPS deceleration over the next few years.
  • Piper believes Entropic Comm (NASDAQ: ENTR) is a key benefactor from the general adoption of high definition video consumer goods, as well as from growth in multi-room DVRs. The firm assumed shares with a Buy rating and $10 target.
  • Cleveland Cliffs (NYSE: CLF) was started with a Buy rating and $135 target at Deutsche Bank. The firm believes CLF is a leveraged play on bulk commodities' momentum.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Analyst downgrades: Morgan Stanley, Boardwalk Pipeline, Brasil Telecom

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Morgan Stanley, Boardwalk Pipeline and Brasil Telecom were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Oppenheimer downgraded Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) to Perform from Outperform based on limited upside to its revised earnings outlook.
  • RBC downgraded shares of Boardwalk Pipeline (NYSE: BWP) to Sector Perform from Outperform following the company's Q4 results, due to overruns and project delays.
  • Brasil Telecom (NYSE: BRP) was lowered to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan on corporate governance share concerns.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Option update: Blue Nile volatility at 126 as shares decline 27%

Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE), a leading online retailer of diamonds and jewelry, is recently down $14.64 (or over 27%) to $39.20 in pre-open trading.

NILE management indicated Q1 consumer spending on luxury goods is looking soft, and will likely impact future results.

RBCM has a target price of $55 on NILE. NILE over all option implied volatility of 126 it above its 26-week average of 65 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Pre-market movers: VG, AMAT, ETFC

Vonage (NYSE: VG) is up 4% on a narrowed loss in the most recent quarter.

Applied Material (NASDAQ: AMAT) is up over 5% on an upgrade from Citigroup.

E*Trade (NASDAQ: ETFC) is up over 2% on news of good January results.

Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) is off 24% on bad earnings.

First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) is up 20% on strong earnings.

Stocks may trade differently in the pre-market than they do in the regular session.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Blue Nile just sparkles with opportunity

There are stock pull-backs, and then there are stock pull-backs that signal 'opportunity.' Or should one say here just 'sparkles' with opportunity?

Online diamond company Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) is the largest online retailer of certified diamonds and fine jewelry, and part of the reason it attained that status is the company's philosophy: Blue Nile believes choosing the right engagement ring doesn't have to be complicated.

The company's web site is a pillar on which the NILE foundation stands: its structured so that the typical person can navigate carat / cut / clarity / color characteristics of diamonds and ring characteristics with relative ease. A 30-day return policy puts the potential purchaser at ease.


Continue reading Blue Nile just sparkles with opportunity

Analyst upgrades: Celera Genomics, Plantronics, Nymex

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Celera Genomics, Plantronics and Nymex were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • JMP Securities upgraded Celera Group, Applera Corp. (NYSE: CRA) to Outperform from Market Perform, as they believe an announcement on the company's evaluation of its tracking stock could come as early as 1Q08, a split of Celera/Applied Biosystems could occur by FY08, and a new finding in a peer-review journal that predicts risk of coronary heart disease and statin benefit within the next six weeks.
  • Baird raised Plantronics (NYSE: PLT) to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation, strength in the Center and Office segment, and negative sentiment on Mobile revenues unwarranted.
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of NYMEX (NYSE: NMX) to Buy from Hold and raised their target to $160 from $145 to reflect stabilized floor volumes, increased trading of commodities and acquisition potential consensus estimates that are too low. Deutsche named NMX their top exchange idea for 2008.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Analyst downgrades: UQM, NILE, NPSP, MEE and HIG

MOST NOTEWORTHY: UQM Technologies, Blue Nile, NPS Pharmaceuticals, Massey Energy and Hartford Financial were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Merriman downgraded shares of UQM Technologies Inc (AMEX: UQM) to Neutral from Buy after Phoenix Motorcars delayed its electric vehicle manufacturing ramp, as they view the company's Phoenix Motorcars relationship as the primary driver for near-term growth.
  • Citigroup downgraded shares of Blue Nile Inc (NASDAQ: NILE) to Sell from Hold on valuation as they believe near-term risks outweigh rewards. They see risk to Q3 revenue estimates and their analysis suggests an in-line quarter at best.
  • NPS Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: NPSP) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Oppenheimer and to Hold from Buy at Jefferies. Oppenheimer lowered shares following disappointing Gattex data; Jefferies believes the P3 GATTEX results in short bowel syndrome make the chances of successful low-dose approval unpredictable.
  • Friedman Billings downgraded Massey Energy Company (NYSE: MEE) to Underperform from Market Perform based on valuation, 2008/2009 outlook, spinoff of Patriot Coal appears to be a better investment option, and another blow to mountaintop mining and permit issues.
  • JP Morgan removed The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE: HIG) from their Focus List; however, they believe the company's fundamental outlook remains positive and expects strong Q3 results.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Analyst initiations: EMC, NILE, GYI and SONS

MOST NOTEWORTHY: EMC Corp, Blue Nile, Getty Images and Sonus Networks were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC) was initiated with a Buy rating and $24 target at Banc of America as they believe the company's core business is undervalued and should benefit from penetration of new market segments. Deutsche Bank views shares of the stock as fully valued at current levels, starting shares off with a Hold rating and $20 target. Jefferies believes the divergence in valuation of core EMC and majority-held VMWare Inc (NYSE: VMW) creates an attractive entry point. The firm started EMC shares with a Buy rating and $25 target.
  • CIBC finds shares of Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) fairly valued and sees challenges as competition increases. The firm started shares with a Sector Performer rating.
  • CIBC also initiated shares of Getty Images Inc (NYSE: GYI) with a Sector Performer rating, as the firm believes the company's earnings visibility is limited while the business model is in transition.
  • Coverage of Sonus Networks Inc (NASDAQ: SONS) was resumed with an Overweight rating and $8 target at Thomas Weisel. Their checks indicate the company is experiencing increased order activity in 2H07, and they expect an improved Q3 followed by a very strong Q4.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

The price of gold: Will it ruin the jeweler's Christmas?

As the price of gold climbs, I wondered how this might impact jewelers such as Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF), Signet Group plc (ADR) (NYSE: SIG), Blue Nile, Inc. (NASDAQ: NILE) and even Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A), which has large holdings in the industry. To explore this question, I talked with Amanda Gizi, Spokesperson for the Jewelry Information Center, which represents the fine jewelry and watch industries.

How will the increase in gold prices impact jewelers this Christmas season?

According to Gizi, most of the stock for the upcoming season has already been purchased, and while the price of gold might fluctuate, jewelers are not prone to adjust prices with every blip of the market.

How does this market differ from 1980, when jewelry sales suffered greatly under $900 gold?

Gizi pointed out that, given inflation, the current $700+ gold is not nearly as expensive as $900 gold was in 1980 dollars. Using the Bureau of Labor Statistic's inflation calculator, I found that gold would have to reach $2,270.94 in today's market to equal the value at its 1980 peak.

How would you assess the conjecture of CLSA Chief Strategist Christopher Wood, as reported by BloggingStock's Weld Royal, that gold could reach $3,400 in the next three years?

Gizi considered this unrealistic, given the market's history.

She went on to tell me that despite its sharp price increase, platinum continues to be a popular jewelry choice, especially in bridal selections, and other metals such as palladium and tungsten carbide are increasingly found in men's jewelry.

In gemstones, she told me fancies (gems in colors other than their common form, such as pink sapphires, blue diamonds, etc.) are very hot on the market now.

Her take on the industry? $700 gold isn't going to scare the merchants, and they don't expect it to scare away the customers, either.

My take? The cost of the gold in a piece of fine jewelry, at best, represents no more than 5-10% of the sale price, so the price of gold will have to increase a great deal before it severely impacts the jewelry trade. Don't sell your Tiffany and Co. out of gold fear.

Analyst downgrades: Process control sector, RHD, VG, CCE and RIG

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The process control sector, R.H. Donnelley, Vonage, Coca-Cola Enterprises and Transocean were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Baird reduced estimates across the board in the process control sector due to lower expectations for North American industrial and residential construction. The firm downgraded Roper Industries (NYSE: ROP), Regal-Beloit Corp (NYSE: RBC) and Baldor Electric (NYSE: BEZ) to Neutral from Outperform and AO Smith Corporation (NYSE: AOS) to Underperform from Neutral.
  • Goldman downgraded shares of R.H. Donnelley Corporation (NYSE: RHD) to Neutral from Buy after the company updated its 2007 guidance to reflect deteriorating trends in local advertising.
  • Vonage Holdings Corp (NYSE: VG) was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Soleil due to liquidity concerns.
  • Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank on valuation and mixed near-term trends.
  • Transocean Inc (NYSE: RIG) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Gabelli. Even though the deepwater market continues to be strong, the firm is concerned regarding the continuing weakness in the jackup market as well as the limited upside potential due to the company's ships being in use through 2009.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Blue Nile (NILE): Build-your-own diamond rings

So you need to buy some diamond jewelry, but don't know anything about the market? That's all right. There's a place online that explains shape, cut, color, clarity, carat weight, certification and setting ... and then let's you design your piece right there on the site. It's the largest online diamond retailer in the world.

Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) sells diamond, platinum, gold, pearl, and sterling silver jewelry on web sites based in the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada. Products include settings, wedding bands, earrings, necklaces, pendants, bracelets, and watches. The Blue Nile web sites showcase in-depth educational materials and online tools that place consumers in control of the jewelry shopping process. Prices are significantly below traditional retail. Tiffany (NYSE: TIF) is a major competitor.

The company pleased investors last week, when it reported Q2 EPS of 23 cents and revenues of $72.1 million. Analysts had been expecting 18 cents and $67.1 million. Management also guided Q3 EPS to 13-15 cents (13 cent consensus), Q3 revenues to $66-$67.5 million ($62.7M consensus), FY07 EPS to 94-99 cents (90 cent consensus) and FY07 revenues to $312-$318 million ($306M consensus). The news popped the shares out of a late-July/early August "cup" into the mid-August "handle" of a Cup & Handle formation. The price is now showing signs of completing the pattern with a bullish rise from the right-hand side of the "handle."

Brokers recommend the shares with three "strong buys," one "buy," eight "holds" and two "sells." Analysts see a 27% growth rate through the next year. The NILE Sales Growth rate (26.67%), EPS Growth rate (27.78%), Return on Assets (16.81%), Return on Investment (30.68%), Return on Equity (31.12%) and Revenue per Employee ($1.77M) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. The stock is one of those used to calculate the S&P 600 SmallCap Index. Over the past 52 weeks, it has traded between $33.05 and $98.50. A stop-loss of $73.75 looks good here.

Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com.

Market highlights for next week: Sprint Nextel (S), Cisco (CSCO) to report

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Last updated: October 07, 2008: 08:23 PM

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