Man, it stinks to be Sony (NYSE: SNE). According to Forbes, the media company has lost $3.3 billion on its PlayStation 3 console so far. Wow. When the mighty fall, they fall hard. The PlayStation 3 is a heck of a powerful system, but the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii has captivated players not only with its innovative nature, but with its affordable price. Right from the start, Nintendo decided to go with less costly components so that each console sold would generate a profit. Its retail price of $250 is a lot better than $500 to a consumer's wallet, especially when a cheaper system is also a lot of fun.
And talk about a hit to PlayStation's brand equity. Here's what most people think about the third PlayStation (from my experience at least): it doesn't have a lot of games available, there aren't many kid-friendly titles offered, I don't want to pay that much for a PlayStation system so I'll just wait for further price cuts. Boy, imagine if Sony has to cut the price even further. Sony already loses a bundle on each system.
Not only is Nintendo hurting Sony, but Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and its Xbox 360 is also out there causing damage. You can pick up a low-end version of the Xbox 360 without a hard drive for around $280. Too bad Sony decided to incorporate Blu-ray and hard drives into its business model for the PlayStation 3. Admittedly, I thought it was the right thing to do at the time as well, but I guess Sony and I have been proven wrong.
At least one of my stocks is doing pretty well in this terrible, depressing market environment. Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) hit a new 52-week high of $36.84 on Tuesday. It closed a little below that, but it was a great, high-volume day for the stock, one that saw the shares rise almost 5%.
Yes, with the Dow Jones index shedding 100 points, with every other stock in my portfolio in the red, including MFA (NYSE: MFA), which closed down to $6.66 -- the number of the beast, my friends -- Activision not only held its own, but it powered higher. Perhaps it's due to the new Guitar Hero game coming out for the DS. Perhaps there's a new wave of excitement over the merger now that investors are receiving their documents (I just got mine the other day, a big book full of wonderful information about the Activision/Vivendi agreement). No matter, though, it was Activision's day, since competitors Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) were down Tuesday, and THQ (NASDAQ: THQI) closed up only four measly pennies.
I love this price action, and I think it might be predicting a prosperous Q4 holiday season for the company, which will eventually be called Activision Blizzard after the merger. I'm also hoping the action indicates that the stock will be reasonably stable during the summer, which I think is going to be rough on the markets as oil and inflation headlines dominate the tape.
Take-Two Interactive's (NASDAQ: TTWO) Grand Theft Auto IV game stole the number-one position on the software sales chart for May, according to data from market research firm NPD. It sold over 1.3 million copies last month, and it has moved over 4 million since it hit the street. I figured Take-Two would be taking the top slot here, but the big question on my mind pertained to how Nintendo's (OTC: NTDOY) Wii system would do in May. After all, the fad has to wear out at some point, right? At some magical juncture, either Sony's (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 or Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 will displace the Wii and become the top-selling system of the month.
Well, that hasn't happened yet. The Wii sold the most, moving 675,000 systems. That was more than three times the amount of consoles sold by PlayStation 3. And as for the Xbox 360, that came in dead last, moving only 187,000 units. All told, total video-game sales, including hardware and games, increased 37% year-over-year. Yep, video games are still hot.
I'm going to predict that the Wii Fit will be the top-selling game package for the month of June. This thing is flying off the shelves in my area, even at $90 (apparently, high fuel costs aren't hurting Nintendo's clientele). Does that mean that Nintendo might make for a good short-term trade? Maybe, but I'd prefer buying it safely below $60 per share. As of this writing, it's trading well above $60 per share. I continue to hold Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) as my play on video games, and will be keeping Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) in the back of my mind as August approaches, since that will be when the new Madden game arrives in stores. Not sure if that's worthy of a trade yet.
Disclosure: I own Activision; positions can change at any time.
The Sony (NYSE: SNE) PS3 may not outsell the Nintendo Wii, but the big Japanese consumer electronics company may have found a way to make more money than its rival. It involves taking ads, delivered over the internet, into its game console.
According toThe Wall Street Journal, "Sony Corp. reached an agreement that will allow advertisements distributed over the Internet to be inserted into PlayStation 3 videogames, a boost for what could become a significant new revenue source for games companies." Some new video games like Madden NFL may get ads within their content as well.
The announcement opens up the possibility of a game consumer revolt. After buying a game console for $500 and a video game for $60, who wants to watch ads? Probably no one.
The Sony arrangement may bring in some additional revenue, for now, but that could be undermined by unhappy customers.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
After preparing to see if Nintendo Ltd.'s (OTC: NTDOY) Wii Fit game would fly off the shelves once it was released yesterday in the U.S., there was no disappointment to be had. That is, the Wii Fit was sold out at 11 different stores in my area by noon on the day of release. You'd think this was holiday shopping time or something, yes?
The Wii Fit, which comes with a game disc and a unique exercise "board" with sensors and all kinds of feedback, is geared towards exercise routines more than playing games. But, the unit does both -- it's a game that's masquerading as an exercise game. Just like the Wii Sports game that ships for free with every Nintendo Wii gaming system sold, exercise is the key to Nintendo's strategy with the Wii, even though it sells standard fantasy games as well.
But, the sheer insanity of word-of-mouth marketing and media coverage showed itself yesterday, as I visited no less than 11 different retail stores, from Wal-Mart, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) to Best Buy, Inc. (NYSE: BBY) to Circuit City Stores, Inc. (NYSE: CC). There was not a Wii Fit to be found. In fact, two of the Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) locations told me that all Wii Fit stock had sold within 10 minutes of the store's opening that morning. It seems Nintendo may continue to dominate the current gaming systems for quite a while.
CNBC reports that the video game industry is making progress in its efforts to offer downloads of high-quality games over the internet. Nintendo has introduced WiiWare, which lets users download games for the Wii from independent publishers. Developers set the price -- far cheaper than the high-budget games put out by the big publishers -- and Nintendo takes a chunk of the revenue. CNBC adds that "Digital delivery of all forms of entertainment is widely considered to be a foregone conclusion. Only the timeframe is in question. Not only will publishers have to learn to adapt, but game retailers such as Gamestop (NASDAQ: GME) will have to figure out how to compete directly with companies that are also clients."
What happens if the downloading trend takes off as most experts assume it will? The story of Trans World Entertainment (NASDAQ: TWMC) could be a harbinger of things to come if Gamestop is unable to adapt. As the number-one operator of mall-based CD stores, Trans World has seen its sales and profitability plummet -- the shares have declined from over $13.00 in 2005 to the current price of $2.60. The market was very late in pricing in the disastrous effects that the MP3 would have on the brick-and-mortar industry.
Maybe Gamestop can adapt. But with a P/E ratio of over 30 for a company whose business model will have to change drastically over the course of the next decade, investors may want to keep in mind the collapse of Trans World Entertainment.
No matter how you slice it, whether you look at GAAP or non-GAAP statistics, Activision, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) kicked it during the quarter. And I mean really kicked it.
Net sales for Q4 set off at warp factor 11, rising 93% to $602.5 million. Earnings per diluted share on a reported basis came in at $0.14, reversing a year-ago loss of $0.05 per share. For the full fiscal year, Activision grew revenues by 92% -- again, sales growth in the 90's! -- to $2.9 billion. Earnings per diluted share were $1.10 in 2008 versus a measly $0.28 in 2007. Take that, Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) and THQ Inc. (NASDAQ: THQI)! Activision is truly taking advantage of consoles from Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE), and Nintendo Co. Ltd. (OTC: NTDOY). Titles such as Call of Duty 4, Guitar Hero, and Transformers drove the results -- like I always say, it's always about the quality of the slate. On an adjusted basis, earnings beat expectations by a whopping $0.12, according to Briefing.com.
I bet EA is really wishing its deal went through for Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (NASDAQ: TTWO) right about now! I believe Activision will continue to do well the rest of the year, and I love its fundamentals, but what about the stock? As of this writing, it's up about 3%. If you are looking to trade Activision, I'd probably wait until all the earnings excitement is over and be patient for pullbacks as the market may perceive that everything is priced in at the moment now that the news is out.
Disclosure: I own shares in Activision; positions can change at any time.
In a column in Barron's (subscription required), analyst Todd Greenwald provides a bullish outlook for the video game industry, macroeconomic trends be damned:
We believe that this industry is virtually recession-proof and will be driven almost entirely by the release of new games, and continued hardware sales, rather than any macro-level consumer spending trends.
Last year's momentum has continued into the first half of 2008; year-to-date software sales are up 41% in the U.S., following 34% growth last year. Furthermore, this will likely accelerate in the coming months, driven by the releases of Grand Theft Auto IV, Nintendo's Mario Kart Wii and Wii Fit, and Konami's Metal Gear Solid 4.
I tend to agree with the notion that video games should be pretty recession-resistant -- they just aren't that expensive for the amount of time that so many young, male hardcore gamers spend with them. There's an argument to be made that a $50 video game actually provides a positive return on investment to the consumer because a night at home playing PlayStation in your underwear is cheaper than a night out on the town.
But one word of caution: Much of the growth, especially in more casual games like the Nintendo Wii, is being driven by a growing number of non-hardcore gamers. People who don't consider video games their main hobby may be more likely to give them up if things get tight.
Another problem to keep in mind: the Associated Press recently reported that teens are having a tough time procuring summer work in light of the struggling economy. That means less spending money for video games. But teen-oriented fashion retailers are more likely to be the victims of that.
This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.
The Nintendo Ltd. (OTC: NTDOY) Wii and Sony Corp. (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 were released within two weeks of each other, in November of 2006, as the latter two of the three "seventh generation" home video-game consoles, with the Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360, released a year earlier, being the third. Now, a year and a half later, let's review how the two gaming machines stand up to each other.
Out of the gate, the Wii was a hit. It broke sales records, led by its revolutionary controller and Wii Sports, a silly mini-game compilation that came packaged with the console. The focus of the system was more on its unique game play, which Nintendo hoped would draw casual gamers, than its intense graphics abilities. The gamble paid off, as the Wii surpassed the Xbox 360, which was released earlier, as the top-selling console in September 2007.
The PlayStation 3 had no such luck at the start. The console's strategy, like the Xbox 360's, revolved around graphics, which made the system more expensive -- $499 for the basic PS3 at launch was double the Wii's $249 launch price. Sony also decided to intertwine the fate of the console with that of the next generation DVD technology the company backed, the Blu-ray disc. However, the release of the PS3 slightly predated the high-definition craze, and so having a Blu-ray player was not an important enough selling point to help the console at launch. Another issue for the PS3 at launch was the lack of a cornerstone franchise for the system. Xbox had Halo, and Nintendo, with its deep video-game roots, had Zelda, Mario, and Metroid. Without a "must buy" game or franchise, Sony was left out, and its PlayStations stayed on the shelves.
Mother's Day has finally gotten out of hand and may now be more commercial than Christmas. Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) has decided to promote the Nintendo Wii Fit as a better thing to give mom than flowers. It is certainly more expensive.
According toReuters, "the Walmart.com homepage will be dominated by the Wii Fit -- a physical exercise program that uses a pressure-sensing board as a controller -- including a link to order the product now, ahead of its May 19 U.S. launch."
The world's largest retailer hopes the promotion will bring store and online traffic during a tough economic period. Even with a recession here or coming, video games are still selling well.
The question is, even with a good market for game consoles, is this something that mom wants on her big day? Flowers and clothing may have done well over the years because women actually like them.
But sonny boy can go online and get that Wii Fit for himself and call the florist at the last minute. It is Mother's Day.
The theory makes sense. As the economy softens, Sony (NYSE: SNE), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Nintendo will cut the prices of their game consoles to keep sales volumes up. The CEO of game publisher Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) has stated as much.
According toReuters, "With the rising costs of fuel and food and housing, it is more difficult to go out and buy a $399 console, and I think it's going to put pressure on the console manufacturers to reduce their prices," Bobby Kotick said.
The problem presents a delicate balance for the console makers. Nintendo's stock has soared because of the popularity of the Wii. Microsoft just began to make money in its device division in the first quarter of the year. After a number of quarters of losses, it looks like the PS3 may start to contribute to the Sony P&L.
Holding prices may keep margins high, but drop unit sales.
There are two factors that work in favor of the console producers. The first is that, as their manufacturing volume has gone up, component prices have come down. That means if retail prices are lowered, the companies can still make money.
The other factor is that all three companies get licensing fees from each video game that is sold to run on its platform. With new offerings like Grand Theft Auto IV on the market, those fees should soften the blow of lowering hardware prices.
Watch for the price of game consoles to be dropped -- and soon.
I'd like to own Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY), but there are a couple things that bother me about the current chapter of its amazing story. First, let me take a look at a report about the video-game juggernaut's earnings.
According to The New York Times, Nintendo's profit number was one for the record books. Sales soared to the sky, rocketing 73% to over $16 billion. Net profit also went ballistic -- in a good way -- by about 48%, coming in at $2.5 billion. Yeah, the Wii console was a big driver, but don't forget that little handheld wonder called the Nintendo DS -- people sometimes miss that part of the tale, and they shouldn't. The DS sold over 30 million units on a global basis during the fiscal year, while the Wii sold over 18 million units. Yep, Sony (NYSE: SNE) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) still have something to worry about, as the Wii has taken the shine away from the PlayStation 3 and the Xbox 360. The company's position in the current gaming cycle is strong, no question. And publishers like Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) and Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) all strive to be big supporters of Nintendo's systems.
Here are the problems, though, that I alluded to at the opening. First, as of this writing, the ADR's are, according to AOL Finance, priced at $71.14 (the ADR's don't change during the day on this quote system, as they update after the close; I'm seeing a current bid on my brokerage's quote system of $68.50, so the shares might possibly go lower tonight). This represents something of a recent run-up, so I'm not interested in chasing the stock at these levels (last time I was interested in Nintendo, there was a price drop). But, there could be a more pressing issue -- on an anecdotal level, in my area, the Wii's are currently plentiful. Has the system peaked? Hey, don't go by my anecdotal observations, but I'm just saying that, for me personally, buying Nintendo at this time is something I'd have to consider very, very carefully.
Disclosure: I own shares of Activision; positions can change at any time.
Sony (NYSE: SNE) is building a virtual community for video-game players who buy its PS3 video-game console. It has been delayed again, which may say something about why the Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii tend to thrash it in the sales department.
According toThe Wall Street Journal, "The service will let users create avatar characters, decorate homes and interact with other users in a virtual world." It was supposed to come out in 2007, and now it may be out late this year. Microsoft has had an interactive aspect to the Xbox for more than two years. It allows game-players to compete against each other over broadband connections. The Microsoft product also facilitates online chat and downloads of video games and movies.
Sony (NYSE: SNE) is still in the game, and it wants competitors Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Nintendo (OTC BB: NTDOY) to know about it. The latest move by the company might not be extraordinary or anything like that, but it nevertheless shows a console maker that believes its product is worth something to living rooms across America (and the world, for that matter).
According to the following article from The Wall Street Journal(subscription required), Sony is injecting some new bells and whistles into the PlayStation 3 unit. Via a system update called Blu-ray Disc Profile 2.0, Sony users will be able to do neat things like transfer images and song playlists to the company's handheld PSP system, invoke a resume-play feature for Blu-ray films even once the disc has been taken out of the system, and download streamed content. Yep, these are neat things, all right -- but will they make people suddenly say to themselves, "Oh man, I have to get a PlayStation 3 over a Nintendo Wii or a Microsoft Xbox 360 for sure now!!!"
Well, it's hard to say that someone would say that exactly, but Sony is doing the correct thing here by adding functionality. And there are some who will indeed care about this stuff, and enjoy it. So it's important to have two minds about this as shareholders -- it isn't mindblowing news, but it shows that Sony is out there promoting. Anything helps. Plus, I like how Sony is yet again highlighting the Blu-ray capability -- that is a big distinction between its unit and the Xbox 360/Wii platforms. Blu-ray, as we all know by now, is the winner of the new format war, and Sony should gloat about that fact at every conceivable juncture.
So, again, I'm not saying this particular update will by itself turn the tide or anything -- price cuts would be more effective -- but I think it will help the brand equity of the PlayStation 3. As for me, I'm not running out to buy Sony -- I'm still happy playing the video-game revolution via my Activision (Nasdaq: ATVI) shares.
Disclosure: I own shares of Activision; positions can change at any time.