It's easy these days to get excited about video game stocks. But investors should beware: Not everything is what it seems.

Part of the recent enthusiasm around video game stocks comes from game maker Activision's (ATVI) announcement on Thursday that it was raising its guidance for its Q1 results, which will be released on May 6. The company expects earnings of 72 cents per share, up from its earlier forecast of 70 cents per share. Shares were up nearly 4% on the news and the stock is up about 19% for the year.

Nintendo is also the source of some intrigue as it pushes ahead with ambitious plans to bring video games to the classroom and to implement 3D video game technology. Plus, the company is rolling out a souped-up DSi video game console with a bigger screen.

If the Wii were still cool, Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) wouldn't have had to take a heavy hand to its full-year earnings forecast. The company's profit fell 52% year-over-year for the past quarter, due in large part to a decline in the game's popularity. Demand has slipped, with Sony (NYSE: SNE) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) gaining ground with the core market of zealous gamers. Also, it's seen its position eroded by Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone, which is picking up some momentum as a gaming platform.

Nintendo's Q3 operating profit dropped to JPY64 billion ($709 million), falling far short of the analyst estimate of JPY90 billion. For the year ending March 2010, the company has chopped its forecast to JPY370 billion, far lower than the analyst expectation of JPY442.8 billion.

After dominating the gaming industry for the past three years, Nintendo's Wii gave up its position in the top spot to Sony's PlayStation 3 last month. The company has also been hurt by an increase in the value of the yen, which has hurt all Japanese exporters. Yet, even by local standards, Nintendo isn't measuring up. Its stock price is down 28% this year, compared to a 14% increase in the Nikkei 225.

Nintendo's (OTC: NTDOY) ADRs are down well over 6% as I write this. The video-game giant posted quarterly earnings that weren't necessarily as fun as one of its Super Mario adventures.

This source says that Nintendo's quarterly operating income plunged more than 40%. The forecast for the year was likewise troubling. Nintendo believes its profit may drop 12%. This guidance was worse than expected. We've talked here before about Nintendo perhaps seeing a slowdown in the Wii fad. We've also discussed the issue of currency pressures. According to this article, the problems caused by the yen might be abating somewhat.

Investors in video-game stocks might end up with a case of a sour stomach after digesting the latest domestic sales figures from research firm NPD. According to Reuters, overall video-game revenues in March dropped 17% on a year-over-year basis. Indeed, it's not something that shareholders of Sony (NYSE: SNE), Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY), or Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) want to see.

Shareholders of Nintendo, however, will be glad to know that their company once again dominated the charts. The Wii sold over 600,000 consoles. Xbox 360 sold over 300,000 units, and PlayStation 3 moved over 200,000 systems. As for the PlayStation 3, well, it's frustrating statistics like these that are causing video-game execs to publicly call on Sony to do something!

Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY), which battles it out with Sony (NYSE: SNE) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) in the console wars, has two huge assets to its name: the Wii gaming system and the handheld Nintendo DS. Both of those products are powerhouses and have incredible brand equities. They drive earnings results. I think they're pretty neat, too. However, Nintendo may find itself having a little bit of trouble, at least in the short term, due to a currency issue.

According to this article, Nintendo saw its top line for its fiscal first half expand by 17%. The company's net profit rose over 9%. The Wii console sure is making toast of the PlayStation 3 and the Xbox 360. And both the Wii and DS should sell well during the holiday season. But, the article I cited mentioned a sobering fact: the yen has strengthened. Because of this, Nintendo's bottom line might not grow as much as previously expected. Of course, currencies are volatile instruments at times, and considering the financial chaos we're currently experiencing, who knows where the yen will be in the coming months. It seems clear, though, that there is currency risk here.

So, where does this leave investors? Well, Nintendo's ADR's are priced, as of this writing, at $39.53. The 52-week low is $32 and the 52-week high is $78.50. Do I want to buy Nintendo now? No. With market fluctuations, a looming global recession, and this reported currency element, I think smart investors would wait for a pullback. I am bullish on Nintendo as a long-term play on video games. It has a great portfolio of intellectual properties. Now, however, may not be the time to start a position. If it goes back to the 52-week low, that could be the time to look, as it might offer a higher margin of safety.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) has had incredible success with its Nintendo DS hand-held gaming device. Sony's (NYSE: SNE) PSP just doesn't have the same heat. And now, the DS is getting an upgrade. It's to be called the Nintendo DSi. The new version is going to have a camera and an SD slot. You'll be able to play music on it. The system will debut in Japan on November 1. For a look at the specs, and a comparison chart that includes the Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone, check out this item at Joystiq.com. In terms of North American availability, it has been reported that it will be released in this territory sometime in 2009.

So, what does this mean for those who may own shares of Nintendo? Well, in case you haven't noticed, the price of the ADR's are sitting a little too close to a 52-week low. And quite honestly, I think they're going lower. The reason I think they're going lower is exactly the reason you think it is: the market for equities is awful. The financial crisis has become a global-sized blob, consuming everything in its path. It's a shame, too, because I think Nintendo has a decent shot at doing well with the Nintendo DSi. Even if it does, though, there's no way anyone could say "buy Nintendo now" ahead of the roll-out since the technicals on the stock, and for the market indexes at large, aren't too pretty.

Nintendo closed at $46.26 on Thursday. The 52-week low is $45.80. The shares are in bear mode for certain. I was really hoping to have an excuse to dive back in for a holiday trade. Now, that hope is deader than a mortgage-laden financial stock. Longer-term, I think Nintendo will do just fine as an investment vehicle. But, you'll be waiting a while, I'm afraid. And even if you want to buy for a long-term portfolio, like I say, you'd probably do well to remain patient for a lower entry price. How low do I think it's going? Below $40 looks to be a given, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Nintendo's ADR's dip under $30 at some point. Now that would be one heck of a compelling price, wouldn't it? All depends, of course, on what the macro situation is at the time...

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

You know, I keep hearing about this Spore game. It's set to be released by Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) to the Nintendo DS and to computer platforms later this week. There's been so much buzz surrounding it, and for good reason. Not only does it sound pretty neat and imaginative, but it was designed by Will Wright, the man who brought the world the Sim franchise. As I understand it, the player's goal is to guide a microbe through the process of evolution until it becomes a society blessed with enough intelligence so as to confer the capability of interstellar travel. Wild stuff, right? Remember, Wright is a genius, and the Sim games have certainly brought in a lot of dough for EA.

But how will the game be received? Is it too complex, too brainy for most gamers? Or, will Spore take the whole Sim concept into a new stratosphere of success? Are we witnessing the birth of a new, marketing-friendly super-franchise that will appeal to a broad demographic? Like I say, the buzz is strong. Yet, I didn't realize the title was coming out this week until I read this recent press release, which is using some celebrities to promote the game. Go figure, I guess.

I think Spore will be a hit, but I'm not sure it will be a big enough hit to move EA's stock back to its 52-week high, certainly. The publisher has such a deep portfolio of games, so this one title won't necessarily move the needle. But the celebration of Spore forced me to take another look at EA and wonder if the company's stock might be an interesting play ahead of the holiday season.

No, you're not surprised. Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) moved the most video-game consoles in the U.S. in July. According to this Bloomberg article, which cites monthly data supplied by market-research firm NPD, gamers purchased over 550,000 Wii systems. Sony's (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 was snapped up by almost 225,000 players, and Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 sold about 205,000 units.

There's no question about it now -- the Wii should dominate the holiday season. Momentum is behind the company's strategy of creating products that appeal to casual gamers. I'd be shocked if the fad all of a sudden burned itself out, although Douglas McIntyre did write recently about the possibility of Nintendo running out of steam at some point. The Wii Fit exercise system was the second best-selling software title in July. That property is definitely helping drive Nintendo's fortunes.

In other software statistics, Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) was number one with NCAA Football '09. Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) came in third with its version of Guitar Hero for the Nintendo DS handheld unit. EA should come out on top again next month since the new iteration of its Madden franchise came out earlier this week. There was a lot of excitement over that game, as there traditionally is every summer.

At least one of my stocks is doing pretty well in this terrible, depressing market environment. Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) hit a new 52-week high of $36.84 on Tuesday. It closed a little below that, but it was a great, high-volume day for the stock, one that saw the shares rise almost 5%.

Yes, with the Dow Jones index shedding 100 points, with every other stock in my portfolio in the red, including MFA (NYSE: MFA), which closed down to $6.66 -- the number of the beast, my friends -- Activision not only held its own, but it powered higher. Perhaps it's due to the new Guitar Hero game coming out for the DS. Perhaps there's a new wave of excitement over the merger now that investors are receiving their documents (I just got mine the other day, a big book full of wonderful information about the Activision/Vivendi agreement). No matter, though, it was Activision's day, since competitors Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) were down Tuesday, and THQ (NASDAQ: THQI) closed up only four measly pennies.

I love this price action, and I think it might be predicting a prosperous Q4 holiday season for the company, which will eventually be called Activision Blizzard after the merger. I'm also hoping the action indicates that the stock will be reasonably stable during the summer, which I think is going to be rough on the markets as oil and inflation headlines dominate the tape.

I'm not a huge fan of Blockbuster (NYSE: BBI), but I do concede that I think the movie renter is on to something with its latest move. According to this brief AP piece, Blockbuster wants to leverage the current video game console cycle to add value for its shareholders. Management intends to increase its presence in this sector by adding more hardware, software and accessories dedicated to consoles from Sony (NYSE: SNE), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) to its locations.

This would be wise. I think all retailers should have a comprehensive and well-defined strategy when it comes to video games -- why let GameStop (NYSE: GME) have all the fun? Blockbuster should really go all out on this form of leisure entertainment and aggressively pursue this potential area of growth. Kids -- and teenagers and adults, for that matter -- love to try before they buy when it comes to game software.

Management has to realize, however, that it's not enough to just expand its video game sections; oh no. Indeed, some heavy branding and promotional initiatives are definitely required to convince consumers that Blockbuster is a go-to place for rental/buying needs related to PlayStation 3, Xbox 360, Wii and the Nintendo DS. I haven't thought of Blockbuster as a place to rent video games for a long time now (I also haven't thought about Blockbuster in general, since there aren't any close to me anymore).

So, yes, Blockbuster should do what it can to hitch onto the hot video game growth curve. This is a much, much better idea than buying Circuit City (NYSE: CC), I can tell you that. (For more on that debacle, check out Zac Bissonnette's recent post on the subject.)

Disclosure: I don't own shares in any of the companies mentioned here; positions can change at any time.

I'd like to own Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY), but there are a couple things that bother me about the current chapter of its amazing story. First, let me take a look at a report about the video-game juggernaut's earnings.

According to The New York Times, Nintendo's profit number was one for the record books. Sales soared to the sky, rocketing 73% to over $16 billion. Net profit also went ballistic -- in a good way -- by about 48%, coming in at $2.5 billion. Yeah, the Wii console was a big driver, but don't forget that little handheld wonder called the Nintendo DS -- people sometimes miss that part of the tale, and they shouldn't. The DS sold over 30 million units on a global basis during the fiscal year, while the Wii sold over 18 million units. Yep, Sony (NYSE: SNE) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) still have something to worry about, as the Wii has taken the shine away from the PlayStation 3 and the Xbox 360. The company's position in the current gaming cycle is strong, no question. And publishers like Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) and Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) all strive to be big supporters of Nintendo's systems.

Here are the problems, though, that I alluded to at the opening. First, as of this writing, the ADR's are, according to AOL Finance, priced at $71.14 (the ADR's don't change during the day on this quote system, as they update after the close; I'm seeing a current bid on my brokerage's quote system of $68.50, so the shares might possibly go lower tonight). This represents something of a recent run-up, so I'm not interested in chasing the stock at these levels (last time I was interested in Nintendo, there was a price drop). But, there could be a more pressing issue -- on an anecdotal level, in my area, the Wii's are currently plentiful. Has the system peaked? Hey, don't go by my anecdotal observations, but I'm just saying that, for me personally, buying Nintendo at this time is something I'd have to consider very, very carefully.

Disclosure: I own shares of Activision; positions can change at any time.

If I had a dime for every time a person asked me "Is Rock Band ever coming out for the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii?" I'd have more money than Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and Viacom (NYSE: VIA) combined. Seriously. Now, though, Wii fans can see the light at the end of the tunnel because Rock Band debuts on the popular platform on June 22 of this year. I don't think any gamer on the planet expected the title to not come out for the Wii.

Not only is this great news for Wii users, but it's also excellent information for shareholders of EA and Viacom. As Richard Driver pointed out, the game is a valuable asset for Viacom. EA benefits because Rock Band is the publisher's answer to Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI)'s Guitar Hero franchise. In fact, Nintendo really stands to benefit this summer from both Guitar Hero and Rock Band because a version of the former will be coming out for the Nintendo DS handheld. There's definitely going to be a rock rumble happening when the dog days are upon us, although I'd expect that Rock Band for the Wii will have a much bigger impact. That doesn't seem too hard to predict considering that music games of these types work better on consoles, in my opinion.

This is going to be one hell of a test for Activision, EA, Viacom and the Wii. Will users adopt Rock Band in droves? Will the Guitar Hero franchise be threatened? In theory, the Wii is a console for casual gamers who just like to play some tennis or a few of the extremely fun midway diversions that can be found in the awesome title Carnival Games -- will they go for something more expensive and more involved? My prediction -- Rock Band will be a hit, but it won't sell a ton of units until the holiday shopping season is upon us. Can't wait to see what happens come June. Till then, rock on, my friends!

Disclosure: I own shares of Activision; positions can change at any time.

I used to own some of the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) ADRs that trade over-the-counter. I bought them last summer ahead of the holiday season at around $62 a share and sold the position last month for about $67 a share, intent on raising some cash in one of my accounts for better buying opportunities. I should have sold when the shares hit their 52-week high of approximately $78, but I didn't -- kills me, but I've moved on (I think).

But with the recent sharp drop in the shares, should investors be taking a look at Nintendo? I know I've been keeping an eye on the price action. Nintendo is definitely a major player this time around in the console cycle; Sony (NYSE: SNE) used to be king of the gamers, but now the sales/cultural buzz is definitely in the Mario-maker's court. Not only is the Wii a major catalyst, but you have to respect the incredible popularity of the DS handheld system.

My gut is telling me that Nintendo hasn't yet bottomed out. Identifying a bottom is a fool's game, of course, but I'd like to see Nintendo develop a more stable base before I buy in again. For now, I own Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) and Take-Two (NASDAQ: TTWO) as plays on the videogame growth story, but I am interested yet again in Nintendo.

Disclosure: Steven Mallas owns Activision and Take-Two, and is mulling a purchase in Nintendo.

Last month news came out that Nintendo Co., Ltd (ADR) (OTC: NTDOY) exceeded Sony Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: SNE) in terms of market capitalization, with analysts citing the global popularity of the DS and Wii consoles for the boost.

Nintendo's global popularity comes in part because of its shift in strategy: make game systems and games for everyone. People are buying the Nintendo DS not just to play "Madden NFL" or "Need for Speed", but also to study, keep a budget and even learn languages and speech. The Wall Street Journal discusses today that the Nintendo DS is used to practice English at Otokoyama Higashi Junior High School in Japan.

Adults took interest in the DS when Nintendo released Brain Age, a quiz game designed to stimulate minds with daily quizzes to test reflexes, speed-arithmetic and memorization skills. Afterwards, an English dictation game that improved spelling and listening created the demand for a new type of DS software.