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Inflation, Deflation and Stock Performance

"While traditionally many investors worry about the potential effects of runaway inflation on stock prices, lately others worry more about the potential effects of deflation, a falling price level," observes Mark Salzinger.

"There's certainly plenty of common sense behind worries that either deflation or significant inflation would be bad for equity prices, but does the history of stock prices agree?" asks the editor of No-Load Fund Investor.

"We believe that for the next year or two, likely low demand for loans and considerable slack in employment and capacity utilization greatly limit the possibility of rapidly increasing inflation. The odds of deflation are higher, but still not high.

Continue reading Inflation, Deflation and Stock Performance

Janus Flexible (JAFIX): A 'Sterling' Track Record

Janus Flexible Bond (JAFIX) is a so-called multi-sector bond fund whose consistently good year-to-year performance has resulted in a sterling long-term record," says fund expert Mark Salzinger.

The editor of the No-Load Fund Investor explains, "For all of 2008 and 2009, Flexible Bond produced a cumulative total return of 18.9%, vs. only 6.9% for the multi-sector funds tracked by Morningstar. Over the past five years, Flexible Income's annualized return of 6.6% places it among the top 7% of all the fixed-income funds we cover.

"Over the past two years, the fund was the 10th best performer of every fund we track. In 2008, when most funds with significant holdings of corporate bonds produced major losses, Flexible Bond produced a gain of 5.6%.

Continue reading Janus Flexible (JAFIX): A 'Sterling' Track Record

Baron iOpportunity (BIOPX): Fund Favorite in Technology

"Technology is an attractive sector in which to invest in the current environment; though the sector is diverse in terms of investment characteristics, it generally offers superior growth opportunities and financial strength as compared with the overall market," says fund expert Mark Salzinger.

The editor of No-Load Fund Investor explains, "Over time, we have become more impressed with Baron iOpportunity (BIOPX), a multi-cap, no-load fund focused on technology stocks. The fund gained 61.8% in 2009, vs. 43.9% for the NASDAQ Composite."

Continue reading Baron iOpportunity (BIOPX): Fund Favorite in Technology

Top Picks for 2010: Matthews Asia Dividend (MAPIX)

This post is part of a special report, Top Picks for 2010, the 27th annual survey in which TheStockAdvisors.com asks the nation's leading advisors for their single favorite stock for the new year. See all 80 stocks listed here.

"Though most investors do not associate Pacific-Rim investments with high-dividend yields, Matthews Asia Dividend (MAPIX) could change their perception," says Mark Salzinger.

In his No-Load Fund Investor, he looks to this fund, which he notes recently offered a dividend yield of approximately 4%.

Continue reading Top Picks for 2010: Matthews Asia Dividend (MAPIX)

Finding value at Price Small Cap Value Fund (PRSVX)

"We include Price Small Cap Value (PRSVX) in all five of our Master portfolios as well as our Best Buy model portfolios," says Mark Salzinger.

In his The No-Load Fund Investor, the fund expert suggests, "Overall, we consider this fund to be an excellent core holding for small-cap exposure." Here's his bullish overview.

"The fund lost just 28.6% in 2008, vs. anearly 37% loss for the average small-cap-value fund. In 2009, though, that has reversed a bit: Price Small Cap Value has gained 19.6% to its average peer's 22.7% gain. Two reasons for the sluggish performance this year are rooted in the fund's basic composition.

Continue reading Finding value at Price Small Cap Value Fund (PRSVX)

Parnassus: Favorite funds for socially responsible investors

"Being socially responsible means different things to different people; however, in the mutual-fund world, it refers to funds that combine progressive 'social' mandates with investment criteria," explains fund expert Mark Salzinger.

In The No-Load Fund Investor, he suggests, "We have no problem with the concept of socially responsible funds for an investor who wants his investments to reflect his values, provided that the funds have also provided good risk-adjusted returns." Here, he looks at two favorites.

"Funds that call themselves socially responsible usually avoid stocks that don't meet progressive, or politically liberal, standards of environment impact, workplace environment, and diversity/tolerance and community involvement.

Continue reading Parnassus: Favorite funds for socially responsible investors

A favorite fund for small cap exposure to Asia

"Matthews Asia Small Companies Fund (MSMLX) was among the top-performing funds of the first half of 2009, with a return of more than 47%," says Mark Salzinger.

In his No-Load Fund Investor, he suggests, "Though volatile, it wouldn't surprise us in the least if Matthews Asia Small Cap turned out to be one of the top-performing funds we cover over the next decade." Here is the fund's expert's review.

"The fund has benefited so far this year from its focus on China and India, two of the year's best-performing stock markets. However, the fund's mandate to invest in developing Asia's small companies also has been a boon.

Continue reading A favorite fund for small cap exposure to Asia

Artisan (ARTRX): An 'opportunistic' best buy

"We are adding Artisan Opportunistic Growth (ARTRX), which we consider a 'new opportunity,' for long-term ivvestors, to our Best Buys portfolios," explains Mark Salzinger.

The mutual fund specialist and editor of The No-Load Fund Investor explains, "Launched lst September, the fund fits neatly into one of our key strategies for maximizing risk-adjusted returns: It's a new, small and flexible fund from experienced, highly successful managers.

"This new fund is managed by Andrew Stephens, James Hamel and Shayne John-the same trio of managers who guide Artisan Mid Cap to excellent long-term results.

Continue reading Artisan (ARTRX): An 'opportunistic' best buy

Favorite funds for investing in Latin America

Given President Obama's meeting last weekend with Latin American leaders, a look at Latin America-related mutual funds seemed particularly timely. As such we turn to fund expert Mark Salzinger.

The editor of No-Load Fund Investor explains, "The best way for mutual fund investors to add exposure to Brazilian stocks is through Fidelity Latin America (FLATX) or T. Rowe Price Latin America (PRLAX)." Here's his review of the two mutual funds.

"Both funds have solid records and new managers, but each has substantial experience and is backed by deep research teams.

Continue reading Favorite funds for investing in Latin America

Top Stock Picks '09: Matthews Asia Pacific Income (MAPIX)

This post is part of a special annual report -- Top Stock Picks '09 -- in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked 75 leading newsletter advisors to select their favorite investment for the new year.

"Matthews Asia Pacific Equity Income (MAPIX) is my top no-load fund pick for 2009," says leading mutual fund expert Mark Salzinger.

In his The No-Load Fund Investor, the advisor explains, "Though most investors do not associate Pacific-Rim investments with high-dividend yields, this $80-million fund could change their perception.

"Matthews Asia Pacific Equity Income was recently offering investors a dividend yield of approximately 5%.

"Managers Jesper Madsen and Andrew Foster seek to fill this fund with dividend-paying stocks of companies throughout the Asia-Pacific region, including Japan, China/Hong Kong, Taiwan and recently at least eight other Asian countries.

"Though dividends have not protected investors in American stocks from the carnage so far in 2008, they appear to have reduced losses for investors in Asian equities.

Continue reading Top Stock Picks '09: Matthews Asia Pacific Income (MAPIX)

Fund expert offers tip on TIPs

"Like other US Treasuries, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPs) have virtually no credit risk," explains fund expert Mark Salzinger.

The editor of The No-Load Fund Investor adds, "Unlike other US Treasuries beyond short-term bills, however, TIPs also have no inflation risk." Here, he looks at an EYF based on TIPs.

"Twice a year, TIPs' principal valuis are adjusted upward by the amount of the increase in the Consumer Price Index Urban (CPI-U), thus protecting their holders against increases in inflation.

"The total return of the bond equals its yield plus the change in principal value based on inflation, changes in real interest rates (published interest rates minus inflation) and supply-demand in the market for TIPs.

"TIPs' yields are lower than those of regular Treasury sercurities of similar maturities. That's one of the disadvantages of TIPs.

"The other is that any increase in principal value due to the biannual inflation adjustment gets taxed every year as if it were received income.

Continue reading Fund expert offers tip on TIPs

Best bond fund bets: Core picks for income investors

"We've added two bond fund's to our buy list: PIMCO Total Return (PTTDX) and Loomis Sayles Bond (LSBRX)," says Mark Salzinger.

The editor of The No-Load Fund Investor explains, "We favor both funds for many of the same reasons: both have experienced, top-flight management supported by robust credit-research staffs." Here's his review.

"Both bond funds have performed strongly over the long-term and during recent market turbulence. And each has a relatively open mandate that allows their respective management teams the flexibility to scoop up attractive bonds from diverse sectors of the bond market in pursuit of both capital appreciation and income.

"PIMCO Total Return is the world's biggest bond fund, and second large mutual fund of any stripe, with $128 billion in assets. The fund's popularity is a product of the outstanding track record and enormous reputation of its manager, Bill Gross. Its 10-year annualized return of 6% puts the fund in the top 5% of all intermediate-term bond funds over that time.

Continue reading Best bond fund bets: Core picks for income investors

North of the border: Best funds to invest in Canada

"One of the best way to capture lower-risk commodity exposure is through funds that invest in Canada," says Mark Salzinger, noting "Much of Canada's economy is tied to natural resources."

In his The No-Load Fund Investor, the long-standing fund expert looks to two ways to invest north of the border: iShares MSCI Canada ETF (ASE: EWC) and Fidelity Canada (FICDX). Here is his review of both.

"Though its population is clustered primarily along its border with the US, Canada is vast: it is the second largest country in the world behind Russia. Unlike most developed countries, Canada is one of the few net exporters of energy.

"As such, the performance of the Canadian stock market has benefited enormously from rising commodity prices over the past several years. Over the past five years, the iShares MSCI Canada ETF has produced a total return of 316%, more than tripling the return of the S&P 500.

"Canada has room to grow its commodities production. Much of its far northern provinces remain untouched by mining or energy interests, and many of its highest potential resources are only now beginning to be exploited.

"Such attractive assets and the growing cash hoards of global natural resources companies have sparked numerous mergers and acquisitions between Canadian companies, further boosting stock prices.

Continue reading North of the border: Best funds to invest in Canada

Price New Asia: The 'first choice for emerging markets'

"T. Rowe Price should be the first fund family to consider if you want to increase your exposure to emerging market equities," says Mark Salzinger and Sheldon Jacobs.

The editor of The No-Load Fund Investor explains, "Price has a fine general emerging market stock fund, along with the broadest lineup of regional emerging market funds, all guided by experienced, successful managers."

Among the Price funds, they note, "Price New Asia (PRASX) is our current favorite among Price's emerging market stock funds, and we recommend it strongly now as a speculative play on our favorite emerging region."

China, they add, accounts for 28.2% of New Asia's assets.They note, "China is fiscally the strongest of all the emerging market countries. Its economy is growing in the 10% plus area, exports are booming across various manufacturing sectors, and foreign exchange reserves recently reached $1 trillion and are headed even higher."

Meanwhile, India accounts for 27.2% of the fund's assets, they note. Salzinger and Jacobs explain, "Though India's stocks are expensive by traditional valuation measures, it offers an entrepreneurial dynamism that is the envy of much of the rest of the world. Also, India's consumer class is booming, partially thanks to increased incomes from outsourcing to India from companies in the developed world."

South Korean stocks, at 12.7% of assets, make up the next largest weighting, while Taiwan accounts for 9.7% of assets. "In South Korean, valuations are relatively low and R&D spending is relatively high." Taiwan, they suggest, acts as a "back door avenue to growth in Mainland China."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com features the latest investment ideas and market commentary from the financial newsletter community.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 12, 2012: 10:16 AM

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