The mall itself, which is scheduled to reopen in the fall of 2009, is seeing a major renovation from an enclosed shopping center to a three-level, 550,000-square-foot open-air retail plaza linking to the Third Street Promenade.
Leading fashion specialty retailer Nordstrom has signed a letter of intent to open a three-level, 122,000-square-foot store in the fall of 2010. "The extraordinary appeal of Nordstrom is a great match for this exceptional market, and for what we believe will be a one-of-a-kind retail project two blocks from the beach in downtown Santa Monica," Randy Brant, executive vice president, real estate, for Macerich stated.
Some of the country's largest retail chains had good June sales, benefitting from consumers looking for a place to spend their tax rebates, but this was not the case for higher-priced department stores. Retailers offering big discounts were among the privileges ones as consumers chose to stay away from high prices.
Consumers spent on the basics, looking for bargains, boosting sales at some companies like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), but resulting in losses for the others like Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) and American Eagle (NYSE: AEO). This confirmed that retailers will face further weak demand even during the back-to-school shopping season, and more deep discounts will be needed.
As June is considered a key month for sales, merchants were hoping for a "stimulus" effect from tax rebates, despite worries tied to soaring gasoline and food costs. However, only companies offering cheaper gas like Wal-Mart, Costco (NASDAQ: COST) and BJ's Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ) saw their dreams accomplished. Thus, Wal-Mart came with June sales growth of 4.3%, Costco reported a 9% increase in June same-store sales, while BJ's Wholesale saw a growth of 16.5%.
After hitting a one-year high of $53.47 in August, the stock hit a one-year low of $28.00 in January. This morning, JWN opened at $29.75. So far today the stock has hit a low of $27.69 and a high of $30.15. As of 12:10, JWN is trading at $28.90, down 2.34 (-7.5%). The chart for JWN looks neutral but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bear-call credit spread above the $35 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in five weeks as long as JWN is below $35 at August expiration. Nordstrom would have to rise by more than 20% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
JWN has been above $35 as recently as early June but has shown resistance around $32.50 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on 8/14) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance JWN might find at its 50-day moving average, which is currently around $34 and falling.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in JWN.
On Thursday, Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) and Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS) both reported smaller-than-expected first-quarter profit declines as consumers continued to pull back their spending.
Luxury retailer Nordstrom said its profit fell 24% from the same quarter of last year to $119 million, or 54 cents per share. Revenue fell 4% from a year ago to $1.88 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had predicted Nordstrom would earn 49 cents per share on sales of $1.9 billion.
The company said same-store sales fell 6.5% for the quarter, below the expected 3% to 5% drop. The retailer said it expects same-store sales to fall 5% to 7% in the quarter, and 4% to 6% in the year.
For the current quarter, Nordstrom forecast a profit of 65 to 70 cents per share; analysts' forecast earnings of 69 cents per share. For the full year, Nordstrom cut its earnings outlook to $2.65 to $2.89 per share, from an earlier forecast for $2.75 to $2.90 per share. Analysts predict earnings of $2.76 per share.
By mid day Friday, shares of Nordstrom had gained $1.35, or 3.5%, from the open on Thursday. Shares have fallen 28.7% in the past year.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The Department store sector, SanDisk and CNET Networks were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Goldman downgraded the department store sector to Neutral from Attractive after raising its 2008 oil forecast to $149 from $115, as it believes higher gas prices will impact consumer discretionary spend and sentiment. Goldman downgraded JC Penney (NYSE: JCP) and Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) to Neutral and also removed Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) from its Conviction Buy List.
JMP Securities downgraded SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) to Underperform from Market Perform based on increased competition in NAND, a potential decline in royalty income, valuation, and lack of catalysts from flash-based solid state drives.
CNET Networks (NASDAQ: CNET) was cut to Neutral from Buy at Banc of America following the tender offer from CBS (NYSE: CBS).
The earnings season continues to roll on, and next week's results offer a peek at the state of fashion retailing, as a variety of companies -- from the discount to the upscale, from the hip to the pedestrian -- are scheduled to report earnings.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect earnings growth, compared to the same period in the previous year, from Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN) to be 22.7% to 22 cents per share, from Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) to be 9.3% to 75 cents per share, and from TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) to be 7.5% to 40 cents per share.
Analysts expect earnings declines from the previous year from JC Penney (NYSE: JCP) by 52.9% to 49 cents per share, from Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) by 34.4% to 42 cents per share, and from Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) by 18.3% to 49 cents per share.
In the case of Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), analysts expect earnings to remain flat, year over year, at 65 cents per share.
And then there's Macy's (NYSE: M), which is expected to swing to a loss of 2 cents per share, compared to a profit of 16 cents a year ago.
The sample size may be too small to define any significant trends, but the numbers do suggest that analysts expect profit declines to be deeper than profit growth, and that consumers may be more likely, given the current state of the economy, to buy clothes at Wal-Mart or TJ Maxx than at Nordstrom or Abercrombie.
The coming results will reveal if those expectations are correct.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: ComScore, Duke Realty, Nordstrom and Sun Healthcare were among today's noteworthy upgrades:
ComScore (NASDAQ: SCOR) was upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer to reflect the strong Q1 report and strong customer additions.
Duke Realty (NYSE: DRE) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia upgraded based on valuation.
Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Sun Healthcare (NASDAQ: SUNH) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Friedman Billings based on valuation and notes the Medicare rate cuts will be as drastic as feared.
OTHER UPGRADES:
MedAssets (NASDAQ: MDAS) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Piper, which thinks the company's acquisition of Accuro will strengthen its revenue cycle management offering, and the firm believes the tight credit markets make the company's MedAssets a compelling product in the short-term. In addition, Piper notes that the company has recently had success with large hospital systems.
Jones Apparel (NYSE: JNY) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill citing sales expectations for the l.e.i. brand at Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and margin improvements from leaner inventories.
Affiliated Computer (NYSE: ACS) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies based on valuation and expectations for better bookings.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the downside for these stocks is smaller, but they won't be his first line of defense.
You should not get oil ramping and retail ramping. You can't have early-cycle running and commodities running, even though I know that commodities are a "rest of world" story.
I believe that Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) (Cramer's Take) can run, but the others? I have to say that if oil isn't going down, these stocks will have a failed rally and retreat again, but not below their recent lows.
The early-cycle rally of the higher-end retailers is the most problematic, because it is the least backed by the estimates. Look how excited everyone was about Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) and now look how poorly it is trading. Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) (Cramer's Take) and Target (NYSE: TGT) (Cramer's Take) should get hammered again for a couple of points, because the numbers for March are going to be awful.
What's a tell-tale sign of a recession, and conversely, an indicator investors/readers should monitor to spot when the recovery has started? Retail sales -- particularly at department stores.
Most retailers will report March 2008 same-store sales this week, and Wall Street is bracing for the worst. In January 2008 and February 2008, same-store sales declined at nearly every major department store, including JC Penney (NYSE: JCP), Macy's (NYSE: M), Kohl's (NYSE: KSS), Dillard's (NYSE: DDS) and Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN).
Further, investors should watch Nordstrom's same-store sales carefully. The reason? Upscale retailer Nordstrom is a type of quick-reference, or an economic-barometer-in-a-snapshot, of the depth of a recession. If retail sales decline at broader-demographic retailers for several consecutive months, that points to a recession. But if sales decline at upscale retailer Nordstrom, that's a sign that even those with higher incomes and substantial assets are cutting back, which is a bad sign for the economy.
Nordtstrom's customers include professionals, executives and business owners -- including people who make hiring decisions. If they're cutting back, that may indicate they will not be hiring in the period ahead, which is never good news for the economy. Invariably, it means the recession's end is not near.
In Q4 2007, Nordstrom's sales fell 4.4% and earnings per share fell for the first time in more than five years to 92 cents per share. If Nordstrom's same-store sales decline again in March, that's a sign of continued belt-tightening by upper-middle and upper-income adults, and a sign that an economic recovery is not near.
The upscale retailer has embarked on an aggressive store expansion. The company will add 1.11 million square feet in 2008, more than twice that which was added in 2007. With that expansion in square footage has come an commensurate increase in short sales volume (those sold with the intention of betting on the stock price decreasing in JWN).
Analysts are fearing that while Nordstrom may have it going on in terms of hitting the fashion bulls-eye, such aggressive expansion may negatively affect the company. The same Bloomberg story quotes a Wall Street analyst who said that "slowdown in square-footage growth'' would make her more positive on the Nordstrom story.
Much as an astute investor in the stock market would use price pullbacks to add to positions he or she likes, Nordstrom is leveraging cut-backs in store expansions at competitors to land what it feels are prime locations for new stores.
With fears that the U.S. consumer will suffer more than he is presently, investors are nervous that store expansion may leave Nordstrom with a lot to sell and not a whole lot of buying going on.
Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Quiksilver, Omniture and Crown Holdings were today's noteworthy upgrades:
B. Riley upgraded shares of Quiksilver (NYSE: ZQK) to Buy from Neutral on valuation and to reflect the EPS catalyst and debt reduction associated with divesting Rossignol.
Friedman Billings upgraded shares of Omniture (NASDAQ: OMTR) to Outperform from Market Perform following the recent pullback, as they believe the company is in its best competitive position ever, which should drive increasing win rates and help restore pricing power.
Banc of America upgraded shares of Crown Holdings (NYSE: CCK) to Buy from Neutral to reflect the company's international exposure and believes metal packaging companies should be better able to manage input inflation.
If you are addicted to fashion, then I have good news that should brighten your shopping days. Macerich Co. (NYSE: MAC) announced Tuesday that retailer Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) will become the anchor at Santa Monica Place after the mall reopens. 
Some of the country's largest retail chains had good June sales, benefitting from consumers looking for a place to spend their tax rebates, but this was not the case for higher-priced department stores. Retailers offering big discounts were among the privileges ones as consumers chose to stay away from high prices.
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The earnings season continues to roll on, and next week's results offer a peek at the state of fashion retailing, as a variety of companies -- from the discount to the upscale, from the hip to the pedestrian -- are scheduled to report earnings.
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