The conventional wisdom is that consumer spending is what drives the U.S. economy. And consumer spending arises out of consumer confidence. Unfortunately, the signals along the road to economic recovery are mixed, what with the rising GDP growth and the dismal unemployment numbers. Its enough to leave investors scratching their heads. What barometers of consumer confidence will the coming week bring?

The TIPP Economic Optimism Index for November is scheduled for Tuesday, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November is due out Friday.

Consumer borrowing fell for the eighth straight month in September. This record-setting streak is due largely to tightening by lenders, unemployment and the conservative preference to pay down debt rather than spend. This widespread fit of fiscal responsibility, economists fret, could prevent a recovery from taking root, since consumer spending is responsible for 70% of the U.S. economy. This conventional thinking, of course, overlooks the fact that an eventual increase in spending that isn't fueled by consumer spending will yield a recovery that's more likely to last.

According to the Federal Reserve, borrowing fell at an annual rate of $14.8 billion in September -- it's biggest drop since July and much larger than the $10 billion predicted by economists. The behavior is exactly what you'd find in people worried about losing their jobs or focused on rebuilding safety funds and investment portfolios. Those who want to borrow are finding banks won't be complicit this time, as they clamp down on lending practices.

There's a chill in the air and a slight up-tick in confidence. Holiday discounts are coming a bit earlier, too. For retailers, this has been a great combination, leading to the second consecutive month in which retail sales increased.

This follows more than a year of drops. Consumers aren't going crazy, but they are loosening their wallets a little bit. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy, and the coming holiday season is where the action is -- for the retail sector and, consequently, for everyone else.

Last week offered mixed messages about whether an economic recovery is indeed underway. The unemployment figures were not as bad as feared, but July sales numbers were nothing to write home about, despite the wild popularity of the so-called cash-for-clunkers program.

The question is, where has consumer confidence (and consumer spending) been? Retail is a good place to look, and as it turns out, this week several shopping mall and strip mall favorites will be reporting earnings for the most recent quarter.

We saw the first signs of the "Obama effect" with the hype of her inauguration gown. The designer of that stunning dress was Jason Wu.

I can imagine that many women looking to wear a stunning dress to their own special occasion might head to Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) -- which carries Wu's collection.

In this recession, department stores need all the help they can get, and selling a hot designer is a great leg up on the competition.

We all know the impact that celebrities have on businesses. One of the most obvious instances of this phenomenon comes from the Oprah Winfrey Show. For example, when a title makes it into her book club, millions of loyal followers immediately take action, and sales follow.

These days, Michelle Obama is giving Oprah a run for her money. The First Lady is being closely watched by millions, and she too has a loyal following. She also appears to have a fashion sense that resonates with consumers around the globe. We all saw the number of stories and speculation about her gown during the inauguration.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) reported dismal Q1 numbers as same-store sales plunged.
• Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) dismal Q2 results were in line with analysts' expectations.
• Bankrate Inc. (NASDAQ: RATE) reported lower earnings and revenue for Q1 and offered no guidance.
• Blockbuster Inc. (NYSE: BBI) earnings, revenue, and same-store sales all fell in the first quarter.
• Dr Pepper Snapple Group (NYSE: DPS) Q1 earnings declined but still topped analysts' expectations.

Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN - option chain) shares are rising today after the company reported earnings last night, posting a first-quarter profit of $81 million, or 37 cents per share.

Excluding one-time items, JWN earned 31 cents per share, topping analysts' forecasts of 26 cents per share. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on JWN.

JWN opened this morning at $21.64. So far today the stock has hit a low of $21.41 and a high of $23.05. As of 11:40, JWN is trading at $22.68 up 1.73 (8.3%). The chart for JWN looks bearish and S&P gives JWN a negative 2 STARS (out of 5) sell ranking.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) reported solid Q2 numbers despite competition from store brands.
• DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. (NYSE: DWA) missed Q4 expectations, sending shares lower.
• First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) said Q4 profit more than doubled due to strong demand.
• Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ: GRMN) posted a lower-than-expected profit on soft sales and lower margins.
• Heidrick & Struggles International Inc. (NASDAQ: HSII) earnings and revenue declined in Q4.
• Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) earnings beat low expectations even as revenue continued to decline.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected the parade of earnings declines to continue into the final week of February, with Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc. (NYSE: MSO), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD), Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN), Macy's Inc. (NYSE: M), DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. (NYSE: DWA), Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE: LTD), Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT), Royal Bank Of Canada (NYSE: RY), Del Monte Foods Co. (NASDAQ: DLM), Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS), Washington Post Co. (NYSE: WPO), Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB), RadioShack Corp. (NYSE: RSH), and H.J. Heinz Co. (NYSE: HNZ) all expected to post lower earnings for the most recent quarter. Office Depot Inc. (NYSE: ODP), Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS), and Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: CTB) are expect to have swung to a loss.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) reported lower quarterly profits and cut its full-year outlook.
• Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) beat Q4 earnings expectations but revenues tumbled.
• Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) reported a big loss in Q3, like many other private equity firms.
• Crocs Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX) posted a deeper-than-estimated Q3 net loss due to restructuring costs.
• Cypress Semiconductor Corp. (NYSE: CY) warned that it expects to swing to a net loss in Q4.
• Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) fell to a three-year-low despite expected growth in profits and revenues.
• Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) lowered its revenue forecast for Q4, which was bad news for PC makers.
• Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS) beat low earnings expectations by a penny as same-store sales declined.
• Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (NYSE: LGF) narrowed its net loss in Q2 but fell short of estimates.
• Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) said its Q3 profit tumbled as its same-store-sales declined.
• Orbitz Wordlwide Inc. (NYSE: OWW) reported a wider net loss, which led to a analyst's downgrade.
• Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) raised its forecasts after finalizing the sale of Folgers brand.
• Sirius XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) halved its Q3 net loss and revenues and subscriber numbers rose.
• TJX Companies Inc. (NYSE: TJX) reported a Q3 earnings decline and offered a cautious outlook.
• Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE: TYC) posted better-than-expected profits but warned of softness ahead.
• Walmart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) beat analyst estimates for Q3 and warned of a profit squeeze.

Update Nov. 26, 2008: See all 2008 Black Friday deals.

Hip retailer Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) is expected to post earnings 22.9% higher than a year ago, to $0.35 per share, on revenue of $475.9 million (+26.4%). The Philadelphia-based company already said that same-store sales in the quarter were 10% higher. Urban Outfitters has beat expectations in recent quarters, by 11.5% in the previous quarter, and analysts on average recommend buying URBN. Shares fell to a 52-week low of $16.61 per share on Friday, and are down 29.5% from a year ago. Other companies expected to report more modest earnings growth in the coming week include watch and accessory maker Fossil Inc. (NASDAQ: FOSL), retail giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and TJX Companies Inc. (NYSE: TJX), parent of such discount retail chains as T.J. Maxx and Marshalls. These three companies have tended to top analysts estimates in recent quarters, and Fossil and TJX ended the week near their 52-week lows.

While Los Angeles-based American Apparel Inc. (AMEX: APP) had a strong second quarter, the casual wear maker is expected to report $0.13 per share earnings for the third quarter, the same as in the year-ago period. And analysts anticipate that Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS) will report that profits fell 16.4% to $0.51 per share on revenue of $3.9 billion (+1.9%). Though same-store sales for October fell 9%, the Menomonee Falls, Wis.-based company reaffirmed its third-quarter forecast. Kohl's has offered positive surprises in recent quarters, topping estimates by 5.6% in the previous quarter. The consensus recommendation remains to buy KSS. Shares have been climbing after reaching a 52-week low in late October, but are still down 32.8% from a year ago.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) posted solid Q2 results despite touch economic conditions.
• Apollo Management LP swung to a net loss on a write down and litigation, but is on track for an IPO.
• Cree Inc. (NASDAQ: CREE) beat analysts' expectations and raised its revenue guidance.
• Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. (NYSE: DPS) beat earnings estimates and raised its full-year guidance.
• 4Kids Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: KDE) widened its Q2 net loss more than analysts had anticipated.
• Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS) topped Q2 expectations and raised its full-year guidance.
• Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (NYSE: LGF) unexpectedly swung to a Q1 profit as revenues soared.
• Macy's Inc. (NYSE: M) beat Q2 expectations despite lower sales, and warned of weakness ahead.
• Napster Inc. (NASDAQ: NAPS) Q1 net loss matched the previous quarter and the year-ago loss.
• Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) beat Q2 expectations despite a drop in earnings and lowered its guidance.
• Sirius XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) CEO predicted post-merger earnings next year.
• Thomson Reuters Corp. (NYSE: TRI) Q2 profit fell while revenue soared, but still missed estimates.
• UBS (NYSE: UBS) dismal Q2 results were accompanied by speculation of breaking up the bank.
• Wachovia (NYSE: WB) revised its Q2 loss to include auction rate securities settlements.

Also, Jim Cramer warns against bearishness on the financials and also suggests that the collapse of commodities will buoy earings.

For more highlights from this week, see: Wal-Mart, JCPenney, MBIA, Deere, Applied Materials and others

Upcoming quarterly reports include Lowe's (NYSE: LOW), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), Target (NYSE: TGT), La-Z-Boy (NYSE: LZB), Saks (NYSE: SKS), BJ's Wholesale (NYSE: BJ), Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD), Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), Burger King (NYSE: BKC), Gap (NYSE: GPS), Heinz (NYSE: HNZ), and Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.