"We sense a turn for the better coming in the oil sector," says Peter Way who tracks 'big money' investors for his Block Trader Oil & Gas Report. Here's his look at the "big block" traders.
"When we use the hedging analysis employed in our stock price forecasts, there are significant differences between some adjacent futures expirations. Here's the current picture:
"Front month (November) hedging suggests likely near-term higher prices. But the December contracts are likely to continue the past 3-month price decline – briefly.
"After that we could see crude rise over a few months into the $115-125 area or even higher, providing a bullish backdrop for most energy stocks. We sense a turn for the better coming in this sector.
"Several issues are selling at attractive prices now. Among major integrated producers, the standout prospect among the big oils is Petrochina (NYSE: PTR).
Baird upgraded Adtran (NASDAQ: ADTN) to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation, new product cycles, and confidence in 2H08 results.
Morgan Stanley upgraded shares of Repsol (NYSE: REP) to Overweight from Equal Weight as they believe the potential sale to Sacyr Vallehermoso SA could lead to a restructuring.
Stanford lifted National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) to Buy from Hold citing valuation. In addition, the firm, which set a target of $70, thinks most of the drop in commodity prices is now over.
Ryanair (NASDAQ: RYAAY) was raised to Hold from Sell at Societe Generale.
Ann Taylor (NYSE: ANN) was upgraded at Piper to Neutral from Sell.
Argus downgraded shares of Constellation Energy (NYSE: CEG) to Hold from Buy post-close given the volatility in the stock as they can no longer recommend CEG until concerns over its capital and liquidity are resolved. Shares were also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup.
Collins Stewart downgraded Lloyds TSB Group (NYSE: LYG) to Hold from Buy following the acquisition of HBOS (OTC: HBOOY) as they expect short-term weakness in the stock.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the oil stocks' decline yesterday was exacerbated by a hedge fund's collapse.
"I think the collapse in the commodity stocks shows a worldwide recession."
"The decline in oil and oil service stocks, far more severe than the decline in the commodity, bodes for $80 oil and gas."
"Without a hurricane hitting rigs, the companies involved in the servicing and maintaining rigs will have severe earnings declines, at least according to their stocks."
These are three perfectly acceptable analyses of the action in the Oil Services HOLDRs (AMEX: OIH) (Cramer's Take) and in the oils in general yesterday in light of Gustav's failure to do any real damage and a continued expectation that economies around the world are slowing.
It's just that they are false takeaways. The single most material issue for the stocks -- not the companies -- was the collapse of Ospraie Management, which blew up and got blown out and took a ton of stocks down with it. The fact that this market is thin, that lots of players clearly knew this blowup was coming, and that the fund was no doubt leveraged up the wazoo (as all desperate managers tend to be) exacerbated the declines perhaps two- or threefold.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says there's a big disconnect between the trade, orchestrated by the funds, and the real-world demand.
How can anyone actually own oil or natural gas through this relentless assault on price? I know when it was going up, the talk was that all of these new funds were indexing trillions to commodities and it was just going to stay there, and that's why there was a new level of oil demand.
Can those same accounts come in every day and take this relentless pasting no matter what the news? And do they believe the news, that they are losing money today because some storm went to Daytona and not to New Orleans?
Yesterday, I had Jim Hackett, the CEO of Anadarko Pete (NYSE: APC) (Cramer's Take) on "Mad Money at the Half," and he was flabbergasted at the activity in the futures pit and how unrealistic it has become. He's focused on natural gas, where he says the demand at $8 by industry -- the glass makers and chemical companies and steel and aluminum users -- is voracious. But the futures themselves just keep going down, regardless of the demand.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says don't blame the currency, it's all about supply and demand.
The dollar.
How often do we hear that this currency as the culprit of the m.o. of everything that the "sophisticated" types think is happening. It is almost conspiratorial:
the Fed raises rates;
commodity prices come in because they are a hedge against the weak dollar;
oil fluctuates in price because of the dollar;
the dollar controls stocks and bonds.
I am not an unsophisticated player. I recognize that the dollar has some importance when investing in strong currency countries and when the translation to the dollar occurs, a la the amazing results in a company like a Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) (Cramer's Take) or a Schering-Plough (NYSE: SGP) (Cramer's Take) or a H.J. Heinz (NYSE: HNZ) (Cramer's Take).
But the dollar and oil? Okay, I hear the intellectuals, but how about the empiricals: oil went from $119 to $148 while the dollar was steady against the Euro. Do the facts matter? What happens if they get in the way of the intellectuals' stories.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Shire Plc, J.C. Penney and VisionChina Media were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Goldman upgraded shares of Shire Plc (NASDAQ: SHPGY) to Buy from Neutral on expectations for share gains in the second half of 2008 following the launch of Vyvanse in adults. Goldman also added the stock to the Conviction Buy List.
Deutsche Bank raised J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) to Buy from Hold after channel checks indicated recent sales trends have improved. The firm finds the risk/reward compelling at current levels with a $46 target.
Oppenheimer upgraded shares of VisionChina Media (NASDAQ: VISN) to Outperform from Perform following the recent pullback, after channel checks indicated the company is seeing greater traction with larger advertising clients.
It has been a rocky year for Wall Street, but even amid the uncertain market conditions there are some companies that are playing with a lot of cash. In addition, they know how to wisely use their funds, which makes them strong enough to beat any challenge.
One important factor that determines the stability of a company is its corporate cash flow. CNNMoney is looking at stocks with both healthy cash flow and a surplus of cash, which helps them avoid tough situations where they may need to raise their capital (check out its slideshow of these five picks). Another element that CNNMoney takes into account when picking companies is their ability to reinvest cash in ways that assure them a nice profitability.
Let's look at some of the companies that CNNMoney likes:
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the Weyerhaeuser and Bristol-Myers stories slipped under the radar yesterday.
Did anyone even see that Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY) (Cramer's Take) made this great trade with International Paper (NYSE: IP) (Cramer's Take), getting out of the commodity container board business and pulling in $6 billion to reduce debt? To me, anytime you get out of a commodity business you lift your multiple, even if the rest is constrained by the housing-related lumber business.
Or how about the story that Bristol-Myers (NYSE: BMY) (Cramer's Take) might sell its baby-food business for a big chunk of change, another $6 billion.
Hmm, $12 billion in shuffles, both good for the shufflers, and no one really cares.
That's the problem with the endless focus on the financials, something I know I am falling prey to, too. Because of the focus, for example, I also missed that Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) (Cramer's Take) traded back to $68 and change after trading up to $75, a terrific opportunity.
"Value stocks are those whose prices are relatively low compared to their fundamental value, as measured by factors such as earnings and net worth," notes Mark Hulbert.
"Value stocks can be considered all-season stocks, as history shows that they can perform well in both up and down markets." Here, the editor of The Hulbert Financial Digest also offers a list of value stocks that recommended by the most advisors who have also beaten the broad market over the last decade on a risk-adjusted basis.
"Value stocks are to be distinguished from so-called growth stocks, which have relatively high price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios.
"Consider first how value stocks perform during bear markets. Believe it or not, they on average actually tend to make money. It's not only that they lose less money than the overall market, they actually gain.
"Take the 2000-2002 bear market, for example, during which the overall stock market declined by 48.6% (as measured by the dividend-adjusted version of the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index (97199001:Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index
"In contrast, according to data compiled by University of Chicago finance professor Eugene Fama and Dartmouth University finance professor Kenneth French, the average value stock over this time gained over 80%.
CNN/Money is good enough to put out the top performing stocks of 2007 list. Most of the companies are fairly familiar, but leading the pack for the S&P 500 is National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV), a stock almost no one has heard of.
The company has been in the right place at the right time. It makes equipment for the oil and gas exploration industry. With the global need for energy rising, NOV is a near-perfect investment.
The firm is not only growing due to a strong industry environment. It is also making what Wall Street thinks are some smart acquisitions. It announced it would buy oilfield service company Grant Prideco (NYSE: GRP) for $7.4 billion in cash and stock. Because the companies are in similar fields, chances are the duplicate costs can be taken out to improve operating margins.
In the September quarter, NOV net income doubled to $366 million, which beat analyst estimates. Backlog for its products also hit a record.
But, the success of National Oilwell Varco points out that in the market, it is better to be lucky than good. The odds that the company could have done so well if oil were at $30 a barrel are probably low. The demand for exploration would be substantially less. The need for drilling equipment would be modest.
National Oilwell Varco had a great year. If oil prices move down, Wall Street should not count on it again.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Barclays, Grant Prideco and Force Protection were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Goldman downgraded shares of Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS) to Sell from Neutral and added the stock to their Conviction Sell List citing credit concerns. They believe negative headlines on writedowns will continue to weigh on shares.
Collins Stewart downgraded shares of Force Protection (NASDAQ: FRPT) to Underperform from Buy after the company did not receive MRAP vehicles ordered last night. They believe shares are likely to trade at book value of $3.58 or lower in the short term and set a target price of $2.90.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Keefe Bruyette removed Navigators Group (NASDAQ: NAVG) from its Best Ideas List.
Morgan Stanley downgraded Petro-Canada (NYSE: PCZ) to Underweight from Equal Weight.
Jefferies downgraded Exelon (NYSE: EXC) to Hold from Buy.
It doesn't take a geologist or an oil sector engineer to figure out that oil / energy-based companies are in demand in this era of elevated energy prices. And when these companies need parts for maintenance, that's where National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) comes in.
National Oilwell designs, manufactures and markets components and systems used in oil and gas drilling/production. Here's a telling statistic regarding NOV's involvement: more than 90% of mobile offshore rigs and a majority of land rig use components manufactured by NOV. Those are Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)-type usage numbers.
In general, analysts see continued, strong EPS growth for NOV: the growth in offshore rig newbuild orders may decelerate in 2008, but overall orders should nevertheless remain strong in 2008. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for NOV are $3.72/$4.53.
Another positive: It's important to note that slowing newbuild orders will not spell the end of NOV's solid returns on equity. The reason? The world's stock of rigs is deteriorating, with the average rig exceeding its designed life expectancy. In other words, there are lots of older rigs in use, replacing or upgrading these rigs will generate substantial work for NOV, and these tasks are destined to remain high-margin activities.
The First Call mean rating for NOV is: Buy. [19 firms.] Mean 2008 target: $81.30. [high: $90, low: $63.] Stock Analysis: National Oilwell is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than one year should be rewarded from NOV's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $49.
The temperatures may still be mild in much of the country, but Mother Nature's not fooling the calendar... Thanksgiving is just a week from tomorrow. Then comes the holiday shopping season, and before you know it, we're in 2008.
It's been an interesting year for stocks so far, what with the private-equity bum rush that fizzled, a housing market that just won't snap back, and a little thing called "subprime." But nevertheless, both the Dow and the S&P have managed to hit new record highs. There have been plenty of bullish opportunities if you've been looking in the right places, and of course, there have been some absolute collapses as well.
Ahead of the Ides of November, I turned to the Quantitative Analysis group at Schaeffer's Investment Research, led by the fearless Joe Sunderman, for a list of the best, and worst, performers, year-to-date, in the S&P 500 Index. These rankings were pulled earlier today and do not include any dividend payouts.
Technician Michael Ashbaugh expects a "cooling off period" before stocks again test their all-time highs. Yet, he remains bullish, with a particular focus on the oil services sector. In his MarketWatch Technical Indicator he explains, "The Dow was recently trading 206 points from all-time highs while the S&P 500 was 26 points from all-time highs."
He suggests, "Looking ahead, that's where the tension rests. The U.S. markets are facing significant resistance at record highs, and are extended near-term after a massive two-day spike. That means a cooling off period is likely due before they make a legitimate run at record territory."
Regardless of any short-term pullback, he adds, "The market's recent decisive break atop the 50-day moving average is distinctly bullish. The U.S. markets also confirmed their uptrend with a 24-to-1 positive volume session last Tuesday, meaning the longer-term path of least resistance is higher."
Meanwhile, one of his favored sectors, based on their technical positions, is the oil services stocks. He explains, "The Oil Services Index remains among the strongest sectors. We have selected several names to highlight as they are well positioned technically. And, their relative strength makes them better bets longer-term."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com features the latest stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
NOV, a worldwide provider of equipment a components used in oil and gas drilling production operations, closed at record high of $136.94. WTI Crude oil futures are down 0.03% at $78.21 a barrel according to Bloomberg. NOV overall option implied volatility of 43 is above its 26-week average of 38 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risk.
Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) volatility at 30 into third quarter business outlook.
TXN closed at $35.72. ThinkEquity says that "TXN provided an in-line mid-quarter update." ThinkEquity goes on to say, "we view this as mildly disappointing given the strong environment for PCs, consumer, and high performance analog, and investor expectations for an in-line to slightly better outlook." TXN September option implied volatility of 30 is above its 26-week average of 27 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price fluctuations.
Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
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It has been a rocky year for Wall Street, but even amid the uncertain market conditions there are some companies that are playing with a lot of cash. In addition, they know how to wisely use their funds, which makes them strong enough to beat any challenge..jpg)
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the Weyerhaeuser and Bristol-Myers stories slipped under the radar yesterday.
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The temperatures may still be mild in much of the country, but Mother Nature's not fooling the calendar... Thanksgiving is just a week from tomorrow. Then comes the holiday shopping season, and before you know it, we're in 2008.
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