Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN - option chain) shares are up big today after the company announced its experimental bone drug, denosumab, was superior to Novartis' (NYSE: NVS) Zometa in preventing complications related to the spread of cancer to bones in a Phase 3 trial. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on AMGN.

AMGN opened this morning at $60.25. So far today the stock has hit a low of $59.85 and a high of $60.95. As of 11:05, AMGN is trading at $60.46 up $8.23 (15.8%). The chart for AMGN looks neutral and S&P gives AMGN a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), a pharmaceutical entity whose colleagues include Merck (NYSE: MRK), Novartis (NYSE: NVS), and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), will be reporting first-quarter earnings Tuesday. As one has come to expect, the market believes that the company will be experiencing a decline in bottom-line income. The call is for 49 cents per share versus 61 cents per share in the year-ago period.

That's a drop of 20%. That might not sound so hot, but the good news is that Pfizer has a solid recent track record when it comes to beating earnings expectations. So shareholders might be justified in feeling confident about that aspect of the game.

Novartis (NYSE: NVS - option chain) shares have moved higher today after after a writer at the Financial Times said in an article that the company exemplifies "the resilience of the European pharmaceuticals sector in turbulent times." The article notes that Novartis is a favorite among pharmaceutical-sector analysts, and that the company's cost cuts have boosted its bottom-line despite the economic downturn. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on NVS.

NVS opened this morning at $49.34. So far today the stock has hit a low of $48.67 and a high of $49.46. As of 12:20, NVS is trading at $49.26, up $1.06 (2.2%). The chart for NVS looks neutral and S&P gives NVS a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a February bull-put credit spread below the $40 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in just six weeks as long as NVS is above $40 at February expiration. Novartis would have to fall by more than 18% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

NVS hasn't been below $41 at all in the past year and has shown support around $44 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in NVS.

There is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right time to get back into the stock market. Maybe that time will be after the Dow Jones Industrial Average tests 7000, or even 6000. Maybe it will be after quarterly reports start turning positive. I'm sure many people will not do anything until the housing market turns around. Then there are those that have sworn off the stock market or at least individual stocks entirely.

These and a multitude of other issues may be keeping you from investing for now and no one could blame you, but if it is your intention to get back in when the coast is clear then you should be making some preparations by putting together your watch list.

Here are some of the stocks on my watch list. I usually have about 20 stocks that I am interested in. Some of them I own already and I am interested in acquiring more. Some have appeared in my Chasing Value column, and some or all might appear there again.

Annaly Capital Management (NYSE: NLY) is one of the stocks mentioned in Fortune Magazines "Ten Promising Stocks for 2009" and is currently paying almost a 15% yield at Fridays closing price of $14.92. The company borrows money at short term rates and only invests in long-term Federally backed mortgages. They have avoided subprime loans and derivatives entirely.

Boardwalk Partners (NYSE: BWP) is expanding and was highlighted today as another high yield value stock Chasing Value: High yield thru Boardwalk's pipes that you can acquire for less than the price the general partners paid in October.

Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) can claim Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) as it's largest shareholder and you can buy shares for less than 'my pal Warren' did.

Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG) is one of my top holdings and favorite companies. I have owned it for years and only selling some shares at $192. I recently started building a new position in a new portfolio in the past few months and I am interested in buying more. It closed at 134.38 on Friday.

I am the Global Editor at MoneyShow.com and each week I interview an investing expert. This week, I spoke with Allan Nichols, editor of Morningstar InternationalInvestor, who identifies the pitfalls and opportunities in global market today.

Q. Allan, how can investors protect themselves should the financial crisis in the US result in prolonged bear markets around the world?

A. Studies have shown the majority of returns from the stock market have been concentrated over a relatively few days, so it is important to have some exposure. My experience, though, has shown bear markets last longer than you think. Asset allocation is particularly important and I would increase cash from my bond allocation rather than from my stocks. Now is the time to buy really high-quality stocks at attractive prices, those that have sustainable advantages, or what Morningstar calls "moats."

Morningstar borrowed the concept of a moat from Warren Buffett. Just as a moat around a castle protected the castle from invaders, a company's moat protects the firm from competition. Moats can be generated from being the low-cost producer; having intangible assets, such as patents or other unique intellectual property; and high switching costs that make it uneconomical to change to another product or service. All of these improve a firm's ability to compete as well as earn returns above its cost of capital.

Monday, July 14

• Novellus Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: NVLS) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 4:30 pm.
• Genentech Inc. (NYSE: DNA) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 4:45 pm.

Tuesday, July 15

• PDUFA date for Sciele Pharma, Inc. (SCRX)'s NDA for Aquelle for the treatment of head lice by asphyxiation.
• Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) to report Q3 earnings; conference call at 8:30 am.
• Senate Finance Committee: International Enforcement of Intellectual Property Rights meeting at 10:00 am with Sony Corp. (NYSE: SNE) and Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) appearing.

"The pipelines of most Big Pharmas are bone dry; last year, the FDA approved the lowest number of new drugs (19) since 1983," notes Louis Basenese, editor of The Oxford Club.

"But opportunity always lurks in the wreckage, and one Big Pharma, in particular, is being unfairly punished." Here's his bullish outlook on Novartis (NYSE: NVS).

"Unlike others in the sector, Novartis doesn't suffer from an empty pipeline. It's launched more drugs globally than any other firm in the past seven years. It has more than 100 projects in phase II (or later) trials. And it expects to file at least six new drug applications this year alone.

"Plus, its products cover all bases, from vaccines to specialized drugs to generics to eye-care products, even animal health items. And most are enjoying rapidly expanding sales.

"Moreover, the company maintains a fortress-like financial position that includes a $10.8 billion cash horde. Management keeps raising the dividend, for 11 years and counting. And it recently announced a massive $9 billion stock-repurchase plan, too. Hardly the hallmarks of a sickly stock.

Novartis (NYSE: NVS) shares are trading higher today after an analyst at BNP Paribas upgraded the stock to "Neutral" from "Underperform," saying that Novartis was the "surprise winner" at a recent oncology conference. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on NVS.

After hitting a one-year high of $59.17 in January, the stock hit a one-year low of $46.19 in April. NVS opened this morning at $53.23. So far today the stock has hit a low of $53.06 and a high of $53.83. As of 12:10, NVS is trading at $53.51, up $1.92 (3.7%). The chart for NVS looks neutral but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bull-put credit spread below the $45 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in four months as long as NVS is above $45 at October expiration. Novartis would have to fall by more than 15% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Novartis (NYSE: NVS) shares are trading higher today after the company announced that its high blood pressure drug Tecturna HCT works twice as well as the previous treatment. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on NVS.

After hitting a one-year high of $59.17 in January, the stock hit a one-year low of $46.19 in April. NVS opened this morning at $50.96. So far today the stock has hit a low of $50.74 and a high of $51.10. As of 12:10, NVS is trading at $50.95, up 0.82 (1.6%). The chart for NVS looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $45 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in just two months as long as NVS is above $45 at July expiration. Novartis would have to fall by more than 11% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

NVS hasn't been below $46 at all in the past year and has shown support around $50 recently. This trade could be risky if one of the company's drugs gets into trouble with the FDA, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find around $46, where it bottomed out about a month ago.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in NVS.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lincoln Educational, Sonus Networks and Novartis were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Lehman upgraded Lincoln Educational (NASDAQ: LINC) to Overweight from Equal Weight based on improving student enrollment growth and valuation.
  
• Merriman upgraded Sonus Networks (NASDAQ: SONS) to Buy from Neutral on the company's strong AT&T (NYSE: T) outlook and near-term upside potential from Japan. They believe shares can trade towards the $5-$6 range.
  
• Bernstein raised Novartis (NYSE: NVS) to Outperform from Market Perform as they believe the company's diversification position it well to withstand future generic expiries.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Goldman Sachs added Burger King (NYSE: BKC) to its Conviction Buy List.
  
• Credit Suisse upgraded Imperial Tobacco (NYSE: ITY) to Outperform from Neutral.
  
• FreightCar America (NASDAQ: RAIL) was upgraded at Jefferies to Buy from Hold.

This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.

Tylenol is probably the most recognizable brand name for the pain reliever acetaminophen. In addition to being a pain reliever, Tylenol also reduces fevers. It was created in 1955 as Tylenol Elixir for children, and was the first aspirin-free pain reliever. It was initially available only by prescription, but became available without a prescription in 1960.

The product is made and marketed by McNeil Consumer Healthcare, a brand owned by Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ). Tylenol falls within the Consumer segment of J&J, which had sales of $14.5 billion in 2007. Over-the-counter pharmaceuticals represented $5.1 billion in sales, or 35% of the segment's sales.

Excedrin is a pain reliever that combines acetaminophen, aspirin, and caffeine. (Caffeine is known to enhance the effectiveness of aspirin and acetaminophen.) It's a product of Novartis (NYSE: NVS), a Switzerland-based company that bought the Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) consumer medicine business in 2005. Novartis produces a variety of consumer health care products, with 2007 revenue of $39.8 billion.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Google, Ross Stores and Novartis were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) to Buy from Hold to reflect the company's "impressive" improvements in monetization in Q1, no signs of weakness from the economic downturn and upside potential from display, video and mobile.
  
• Lehman upgraded Ross Stores (NASDAQ: ROST) to Overweight from Equal Weight and believes the company's 2008 guidance of 8-9% sales growth and up to 20% bps in margin expansion will prove conservative.
  
• Morgan Stanley upped Novartis (NYSE: NVS) to Overweight from Underweight on valuation and expectations for positive news flow from the company's vaccine division.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• JP Morgan upgraded Bladex to Neutral from Underweight.
• William Blair raised Watsco (NYSE: WSO) to Outperform from Market Perform.
  
• SunTrust (NYSE: STI) was upgraded at Baird to Neutral from Underperform.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Apple, Novartis and Infineon were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Morgan Keegan downgraded Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to Underperform from Market Perform citing increased evidence of broad-based weakness in consumer technology spending in the U.S. and Europe. Additionally, the firm expects challenges in the company's education vertical due to state and local budget issues, which could lead to decelerating growth over the next 2-3 quarters.
  
• Bear Stearns downgraded Novartis(NYSE: NVS) to Peer Perform from Outperform following the acquisition of Alcon (NYSE: ACL), as they find the deal expensive.
  
• Credit Suisse cut Infineon (NYSE: IFX) to Neutral from Outperform to reflect weakness in the U.S. dollar.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Goldman downgraded Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and Zions Bancorp (ZION) to Neutral from Buy.
• Keefe Bruyette cut Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) to Underperform from Market Perform.
  
• Baird downgraded Flowserve (NYSE: FLS) to Neutral from Outperform.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The Brokers and Asset Managers sector, Pacific Sunwear and Metabasis Therapeutics were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Goldman upgraded the Brokers and Asset Management sector to Attractive from Neutral as they believe an inflection point has been reached for stocks with minimal credit exposure, or where exposure is marked to market. Goldman expects the problem to shift to regional banks and specialty finance from brokers. As such, Goldman upgraded American Express (NYSE: AXP), Metlife (NYSE: MET), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), Franklin Resources (NYSE: BEN), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS) and NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) to Buy from Neutral.
  
• Wachovia upgraded Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ: PSUN) to Outperform from Market Perform based on valuation, merchandising improvements, operating efficiencies, favorable product mix, and reductions in underperforming categories.
  
• Rodman & Renshaw raised Metabasis (NASDAQ: MBRX) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation given the potential for MB07803.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• HSBC raised Novartis (NYSE: NVS) to Neutral from Underweight.
  
• UBS (NYSE: UBS) was upgraded at Morgan Stanley to Equal Weight from Underweight.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Seagate, Nortel Networks and Ann Taylor were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Thomas Weisel downgraded Seagate (NYSE: STX) to Market Weight from Overweight as they believe the company's growth will be more muted given high existing market share and overall industry growth.
  
• Baird downgraded Nortel (NYSE: NT) to Neutral from Outperform citing checks that indicate deteriorating US Enterprise sales in the last few weeks of Q1. The firm now expects companies to guide flat QoQ instead of up and to make cautious 2H08 comments.
  
• Ann Taylor (NYSE: ANN) was cut to Neutral from Buy at Piper to reflect concerns over the LOFT division as well as consumer spending.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Citigroup lowered TJX Cos (NYSE: TJX) to Hold from Buy.
  
• WestLB downgraded to Hold from Add Novartis (NYSE: NVS).
  
• Hartford Financial (NYSE: HIG) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS.