When I was in high school, every cool kid had a half-a-dozen pairs of The Gap Inc. (NYSE:GPS) jeans. We'd go shopping in their stores around Christmas season and see four or five of our classmates behind the register, and another 20 or 30 among the customers. In college, Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF) became my new aspirational casual retailer of choice, and I could pick their iconic striped sweaters and slim cargo pants out of any crowd.

But now? Gap and Abercrombie, we are so over you!

Amey Stone and I were IM-ing, trying to figure out why this was. We had lots of ideas, firstly, as Amey said, "maybe it's those half-naked men standing in the doorway that are scaring off mothers with young children." This makes sense on a lot of levels. When I was a college kid, the half-naked men were the perfect sex symbol. But the target audience for these clothes has gotten both younger (12- and 13-year-old girls instead of college kids), and older (moms like Amey and me who used to be hot for the half-naked). If the younger set are shopping, in today's increasingly protective culture, they're doing it with mom -- and mom isn't about to bring her 12-year-old into a store that clearly sells sex alongside the sweaters.

As for the older set, we moms with two or three very young children? The last thing we want to see is a half-naked man, even if he's exceptionally cute. Let's be frank. Our libidos are 1/10th of their normal selves thanks to the hormones involved in child-rearing. We'll stick with the J. Crews and the safe boutiques, with the cute little frog umbrellas and not the clothes that make our eight-year-olds look like they're trying out for America's Next Top Swimsuit Model.

Everyone is focused on the results of the Fed meeting which will be released Wednesday. My forecast, along with that of most others, is that the Fed will leave rates unchanged. I also believe that Fed language will emphasize a continuing focus on core inflation, leaving open the possibility of a rate increase but nothing more. This will be, in effect, a continuation of the status quo. No news, just more noise.

However, the real action may be where no one seems to be looking -- the polls for the upcoming Congressional election. Everyone in the mainstream media is forecasting a massive defeat for the Republicans, possibly in both houses of Congress similar to what happened to the Democrats in 1994.

Gridlock in history has been considered to be good for the equity markets because it restrains the extremes of both parties. In 1994, the Republican takeover of Congress forced Bill Clinton to the center and began the prosperity of the 1990's. However, this time things may be different.

A massive Democratic majority in the House along with a smaller one in the Senate could create the worst of both worlds. Democrats firmly in control would attempt huge social spending to reward their base and prepare for the 2008 elections. Republicans would respond with spending bills and tax cuts to satisfy their constituencies. Unlike earlier Republican Heads of State, President Bush's focus has been on winning elections instead of balancing the budget. Fiscal responsibility would become a secondary priority for both parties adding to inflationary pressures and possibly causing the Fed to adopt a more hawkish tone.

Much of this depends upon whether the Republican base stays home on Election Day. If it does, the above scenario becomes likely. However, this is by no means certain. Editorials by John Podhoretz and Dick Morris cite data from Pollster Mark Rasmussen that shows that the Republican base may be more scared of the Democratic leadership than disgusted by a Republican Congress. If this is true, Republican losses may be less than anticipated.

A Republican loss of the House while retaining control of the Senate would result in the gridlock scenario favorable for the equity markets. Even if one party gains control of both branches of Congress, it will be by very slim majorities. No one would be able to accomplish much with the extremes of both parties being restrained from fiscal spending to pacify their respective bases. This would allow the slowing economic scenario desired by the Fed to unfold, with no need to raise rates.

As Election Day approaches, it may be the voters who determine what the Fed will do.

Doug Roberts is the Founder and Chief Investment Strategist for FollowtheFed.com, an independent research firm focusing on investment strategies using the Federal Reserve's impact on the stock prices. He previously held executive positions at Morgan Stanley Group and Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.