Revenues increased 18%, approaching $3 billion. Earnings per share from continuing operations skyrocketed 40% to $0.94. As management pointed out, distributors are exploiting railways to the advantage of their supply chains. This is cool for shareholders of CSX, who obviously are hoping their company can successfully navigate the tough economic landscape that we're all trying to find maps for. And if oil prices continue to fall, then CSX may find it easier to manage its operations.
And there's another positive. According to this source, CSX beat analyst expectations by a penny. Unfortunately, according to that same source, management believes that it will hit the lower end of the spectrum in terms of its previous guidance. CSX is looking to earn between $3.65 and $3.75 per share for the fiscal year.
Taking everything together, I'm not sure I'd want to enter CSX at this time. It is well off the 52-week high, but it's not exactly near the 52-week low, either. Even though the energy picture might be moderating for the company, and even though its business does offer a compelling transportation service, I think a macro slowdown might send shares back toward the low. And according to this source, freight volume declined by over 2%. Problems in the automotive industry are negatively affecting CSX. Heck, problems in many industries will be with us for a while. CSX will see its operations pressured. And, again, that tells me that I'd have to see a big drop in the stock to find it attractive at this point.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Norfolk Southern, OfficeMax and PetroQuest Energy were today's noteworthy upgrades:
JP Morgan upgraded Norfolk Southern (NYSE:NSC) to Overweight from Neutral based on leverage to export coal and the tighter truckload market.
Credit Suisse upgraded OfficeMax (NYSE:OMX) to Outperform from Neutral citing the company's clean balance sheet, positive cash flow, and limited downside.
UBS upgraded PetroQuest Energy (NYSE:PQ) to Buy from Neutral citing valuation and production catalysts. The company's target was raised to $30 from $25.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Piper Jaffray (NYSE:PJC) was upgraded to Market Weight from Underweight at Thomas Weisel.
Corning(NYSE:GLW) was upgraded at Merrill to Buy from Neutral.
HSBC lifted BP Plc (NYSE:BP) to Overweight from Neutral.
Calgon Carbon (NYSE:CCC) was raised to Hold from Sell at Morgan Joseph.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Taleo, Hatteras Financial and Harmonic were today's noteworthy initiations:
Baird initiated Taleo (NASDAQ:TLEO) with a Neutral citing uncertainty regarding the integration plan and financial guidance regarding the Vurv acquisition.
Wachovia believes Hatteras Financial (NYSE:HTS) is well-positioned to capitalize on opportunities in the Agency RMBS sector given the steep yield curve & slow mortgage payments, low expense structure, and Agency-only strategy. Shares were initiated with an Outperform rating.
Brean Murray expects Harmonic (NASDAQ:HLIT) to benefit from an increased competitive environment among cable, telco, and satellite operators and their need for encoding and video stream processing equipment. Shares were assumed with a Buy rating and $13 target.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Jesup & Lamont initiated GP Strategies (NYSE:GPX) with a Buy rating and $12.50 target.
Norfolk Southern (NYSE:NSC) was initiated at BMO Capital with a Market Perform rating.
UBS assumed Genesis Energy (AMEX:GEL) with a Neutral rating and $22 target.
Readers of this space know that one of the preferred sectors is the railroad sector. The once near-rust-belt level sector has experienced a revival at the start of the globalization age, and compelling economic trends document the commerce-based underpinnings of this revival.
Most transportation officials agree that the U.S. transportation infrastructure -- highways, roads, bridges, mass transit systems -- is in need of a major upgrade in order to meet the nation's vehicle transportation needs of the 21st century.
The nation's public officials will begin to address the above concern in the years ahead, as public funds become available, but until they do, and due to crude oil's sustained high price, an opportunity has emerged for another transportation form: you guessed it, the railroads. And Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) is a railroad worth an evaluation.
Norfolk Southern provides rail transportation in the eastern United States, operating a 21,000-mile rail network in the eastern United States and Canada. It's an elaborate intermodal and coal service network that also has a large freight business.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says lots of companies now thrive with crude up here.
Oil's not a tax on everything -- it's a tax on the consumer. That's what I come down to when I see the charts this weekend and ponder what's happening in so much of industrial America.
Company after company that I examine -- the new techs, as I call them -- actually benefit from higher oil prices. Or they can pass them on with ease, because of the worldwide demand being so strong.
Take all of the companies involved with making a Boeing (NYSE: BA) (Cramer's Take): Boeing itself, Alcoa (NYSE: AA) (Cramer's Take), Honeywell (NYSE: HON) (Cramer's Take) and Precision Castparts (NYSE: PCP) (Cramer's Take) being good examples. Each of these is necessary because the new Dreamliner burns lots less fuel, and with fuel the biggest airline cost, it stands to reason that higher energy prices make the plane more desirable even at a higher price point.
When a major, metropolitan U.S. newspaper discovers a investment trend or a hot sector, count on increased share demand for companies in the sector. When that paper is one of the top three dailies, in this case The Washington Post, count on even more demand.
Railroad giant Norfolk Southern Corporation (NYSE: NSC) was up 10% in just the last week, based in large measure on super 4Q and FY2007 earnings released a week ago, January 22. Fourth quarter operating revenue increased 6% to $2.5 billion, and net income increased 4% to $399 million. What makes these numbers even more impressive is that Norfolk Southern posted revenue increases at the same time it faced significantly higher fuel costs and a measurable reduction in shipments by volume. Coal shipments dropped 2% by volume, while general merchandise shipments dropped a hefty 10% by volume.
The story is the same for FY2007 results. Revenue increased while shipments by volume decreased. And the railroad still made money. The stock closed at $45.07 on January 21, but closed at $52.00 on January 28. Very nice capital appreciation for a week. The company increased its dividend payout by 12% to $0.29 per share, a 32% increase over the last year, and the 102nd consecutive quarter of dividend payout. Clearly, Norfolk Southern is a stock for the very long haul.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Semiconductor stocks, Norfolk Southern and Textron were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Banc of America downgraded semiconductor stocks as they believe the cyclical recovery that began in early 2007 has "run its course." Banc of America reduced its estimates for sales of integrated circuits in 2008 and lowered their 2008 semiconductor sales growth to 7% from 11%. The firm downgraded Advanced Micro (NYSE: AMD) to Sell from Neutral as they believe the company's Barcelona product will not stem market share losses in servers and desktops vs. Intel (NASDAQ: INTC). They also believe AMD's cost structure will be pressured by higher depreciation and higher material costs in 2008.
JP Morgan downgraded Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) to Neutral from Overweight citing continued weakness in volumes vs. easy Q4 comps, lack of visibility into an upturn and lack of catalysts.
Citigroup lowered its rating on Textron (NYSE: TXT) to Hold from Buy on valuation, as they see a less compelling risk/reward following the 2007 rally.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Fossil (NASDAQ: FOSL) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Piper.
Readers of this space know that the preference here is for large cap companies, with demonstrated business models, and favorable long-term factors, that have the resources to ride-out short-term economic downturns, including recessions.
And in this category a railroad stock represent a prudent addition to a portfolio, for investors who can tolerate moderate risk.
Pick a railroad. Virtually any railroad. Odds are, you will do fine, long-term, as the nation continues to re-discover the valuable asset - - the national treasury, really - - of its railroads. (More on that latter topic, in a future blog.)
Here are the railroad plays, ranked by risk, with the top stock, BNI, being the lowest risk. A stop/loss, if one were to buy the stock, is also listed:
Most transportation officials agree that the United States' transportation infrastructure - - highways, roads, bridges, mass transit systems - - is in need of a major upgrade in order to meet the nation's transportation needs of the 21st century.
The nation's public officials will begin to address the above concern in the years ahead, as public funds become available, but until they do, and due to crude oil's sustained high price, an opportunity has emerged for another transportation form: you guessed it, the railroads. And Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC) is a railroad worth a review.
Norfolk Southern provides rail transportation in the eastern U.S. and Canada, operating a 21,000-mile rail network. It's an elaborate intermodal and coal service network that also has a large freight business.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Pharmacopeia, Zumiez, Norfolk Southern and OccuLogix were today's noteworthy upgrades:
CIBC upgraded Pharmacopeia (NASDAQ: PCOP) to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer, as they believe its lead cardiovascular drug DARA has the potential to become an important new therapy for hypertension and diabetic nephropathy.
Think Equity upgraded shares of Zumiez (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) to Buy from Accumulate to reflect the company's strong same store sales growth.
Caris upgraded shares of OccuLogix (NASDAQ: OCCX) to Above Average from Average, as they believe weakness in the stock creates a buying opportunity. The firm believes the stock has dropped due to concerns about the company's cash position, but thinks the current stock price underestimates the revenue potential of the company's assets.
OTHER UPGRADES:
BRE Properties (NYSE: BRE) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Given investors anxiousness about the economy and hearing more gloom and doom than I think is warranted, I thought I would get back to basics with "my pal" Warren, and add to the series I started several months ago. I decided to write the series after receiving encouragement from friends and associates that read With Warren Buffett by my side ....
Today, I am writing about the concept of Durable Competitive Advantage, which is the ability to get ahead and stay ahead with a high level of certainty. It is also referred to as Sustainable Competitive Advantage.
To achieve a Durable Competitive Advantage, several factors have to be present. One is a big moat (Buffett expression) surrounding the enterprise. This usually means businesses that sell commodities where price is the primary factor in determining opportunity, have no moat as price takers. Their profit margins are not easily defendable. Another factor is barrier to entry. How easy would it be for someone to enter the same business and compete? The T-shirt business is a good example, of something without a Durable Competitive Advantage. Anyone could enter this business in one day, and they do. So unless the business has some unique concept, it does not have the promise of relatively predictable and sustainable profit margins in the future.
It's a big deal whenever Warren Buffett so much as sneezes, and this morning was no different. Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK.A) decision to boost its stake in Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) made the expected splash, and up went Burlington's stock 3%.
Back in April, Berkshire disclosed an 11% stake in Burlington, and then in May it announced investments in two other railroads: Norfolk Southern Corp (NYSE: NSC) and Union Pacific Corp (NYSE: UNP). Buffett clearly sees value in riding the railroads.
Then today came Berkshire's disclose that it had raised its stake from August 3 through August 7 to 11.5% from 11% -- which, while not exactly earth shaking, is a strong indicator that Buffett sees the recent price weakness enveloping the market as a buying opportunity. Usually when the "oracle" Mr. Buffett sees something, it is worth paying attention.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: MGM Mirage (MGM), Motorola (MOT), Navteq (NVT), ExxonMobil (XOM) and Intel (INTC) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Lehman upgraded shares of MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) to Overweight from Equal-Weight on valuation as they believe the market is currently undervaluing the company's growth prospects.
Motorola (NYSE: MOT) was raised to Market Perform from Underperform at JMP Securities on valuation.
Following the acquisition of competitor Tele Atlas by TomTom, CIBC believes Navteq (NYSE: NVT) is well positioned to gain share, upgrading the stock to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer, and believes Garmin (GRMN) should consider buying the company for its exclusive map content.
AG Edwards believes the recent pullback in ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) has created a buying opportunity, upgrading shares to Buy from Hold.
Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) was added to American Technology's Focus List following its recent sell-off...
Think iron pellets. If you do, you won't be alone. Lots of options folk think they've caught a takeover candidate, and have been picking up bullish options all over. Is it steel industry consolidation fever? Most probably. Rio Tinto plc ADS (NYSE: RTP) and Brazil's CVRD have been named as predators. Speculation about the company's future actually began late last summer for a company with a market cap of just $3B, which happens to be the largest producer of iron ore pellets in all of North America, and a key part of producing steel. The stock has been heading up for about seven months now. Makes sense. NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORPORATION (NYSE: NSC)
Higher and higher goes the stock for a few reasons: Railroad stocks look to be buyout candidates, and some analysts are focused on the Southern, the fourth largest railroad in the U.S. The other reason? Mr. Warren Buffett also owns 6.4M shares worth over $300M. Good enough?
There's speculation that the Inns are in buyout mode. The stock recently hit a 52-week high, and has been going up for about six weeks. Some who follow the company think it's definitely worth more than the $20 a share range.
CSX (NYSE: CSX), a transportation company whose competitors include Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI), Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC), and Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP), reported earnings for the third quarter on Tuesday. The results weren't bad, driven in part by a drop in energy costs and an effort to keep costs under control. .gif){kind=logo}
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When a major, metropolitan U.S. newspaper discovers a investment trend or a hot sector, count on increased share demand for companies in the sector. When that paper is one of the top three dailies, in this case The Washington Post, count on even more demand.
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Stock picks and pans for troubled times: RIMM, ED, ISRG, GLW, LEA, SLB, GOOG ...
Is Berkshire Hathaway better than S&P Index?
Closing Bell: Torch Passing on a Friday Rally
