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Home builder stock #1: NVR (NVR)

nvr stock (NVR)NVR (NYSE: NVR) is probably the healthiest of all the major home builders. In fact, the company hasn't taken a single annual loss yet. The company reported a quarterly loss for the fourth quarter of 2008, but all of the other quarters have recorded a profit.

Even though NVR is a fairly small company (market value of nearly $4 billion), the stock carries a very high price. The shares are currently over $660 a piece, which is even higher than Google.

Continue reading Home builder stock #1: NVR (NVR)

Is it safe to buy home builders?

home builder stocksThe past few years haven't been what you might call a happy time for shares of home building stocks. Consider that the Homebuilders Exchange-Traded Fund (NYSE: XHB) plunged from $40 per share in early 2007 to just $8 per share earlier this year.

Since March, however, things have improved. There are signs that the housing market is getting back on its feet -- or at least, declining less slowly. Existing home sales recently registered their biggest gain in more than a decade. Seasonally-adjusted single-family building permits are up 27% since bottoming in March, while single-family housing starts have increased five straight months and are up 36% since March.

Continue reading Is it safe to buy home builders?

Comfort Zone Investing: Starting over

Most investors got slammed last year, down 50% or more in their investments. Didn't matter if they owned stocks or real estate, they got hammered. Many have to start over. And if they're near retirement, it's scary. Years of patient investing wiped out, gains that were made over a long time disappeared frighteningly fast.

But now it's time to begin fresh, to rebuild. What's the safest way to regain some or all of the losses without suffering another wipeout?

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Starting over

Building value: Contrary call on homebuilders

"The economic crisis began in the housing sector and will likely end there," says Stephen Leeb. In his top-notch The Complete Investor he takes a contrary look at two homebuilders.

"Though my view may sound contrarian to a fault, a close look at the housing market, especially given recent government actions, suggests a recovery will happen sooner rather than later and be stronger rather than weaker.

"When home prices decline, buyers pull back, afraid of buying too soon. This leads to further declines and further buyer reluctance. No surprise, then, that housing starts have fallen dramatically.

"Meanwhile, consumers, who had been borrowing money based on the value of their homes, found this source of credit drying up, which dealt a further blow to the economy.

"It is a vicious circle indeed. Ultimately, though, it will almost certainly end with more willing lenders and a stronger housing market as the huge amounts of money being flooded into the system start boosting balance sheets of potential lenders.

Continue reading Building value: Contrary call on homebuilders

NVR announces buyback -- stock soars

Moments ago, homebuilder NVR (AMEX: NVR) announced a $300 million share buyback plan. According to a news report, the buyback will be performed on the public market as well as through privately negotiated transactions. NVR, like every other homebuilder, has been getting killed in recent months due to the grim housing market.

I love seeing this, especially for a stock like NVR. Although I don't think homebuilders have bottomed for the short term, over the long term I believe most of them are tremendous values. Despite the housing slowdown, NVR still trades for just 15x next year's earnings and 6-7x earnings in a positive housing cycle. I think this buyback shows that management is committed to NVR and strongly believes in the company's long term potential.

Not only is this a logical move financially, but this move has appeased traders who have sent the stock quickly up about 40 points since the announcement. Traders love buybacks because they put a "floor" in a stock's price.

Analyst upgrades 11-30-06: Homebuilders sector upgraded

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sovereign Bancorp (SOV) and the Homebuilders sector topped the upgrade list today.

  • Citigroup upgraded Sovereign Bank Inc. (NYSE:SOV) to Hold from Sell with a $25 target, citing expectations for management to announce a larger cost-cutting program in January of 2007.
  • Bank of America upgraded the Homebuilders sector to Neutral from Cautious after their survey showed traffic improvements in 33 of 39 markets in November relative to October; They do not expect a smooth trend, instead, the firm expects to see choppiness in the market for the next 12-24 months.
    • In conjunction with the sector upgrade, Bank of America upgraded Standard Pacific (NYSE:SPF) to Buy from Neutral,
    • and Meritage Homes Corp. (NYSE:MTH), NVR Inc. (NYSE:NVR), Pulte Homes Inc. (NYSE:PHM), The Ryland Group Inc. (NYSE:RYL) and Toll Bros. Inc. (NYSE:TOL) to Neutral from Sell.

OTHER UPGRADES:

  • Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE:SNY) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC.
  • SAP AG (NYSE:SAP) was added to Merrill Lynch's Europe 1 list.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Symbol Lookup
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DJIA+65.9010,312.87
NASDAQ+19.832,170.91
S&P 500+8.851,101.86

Last updated: November 11, 2009: 10:09 AM

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