Analyst Upgrades

• Goodrich (GR) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Ford (F) to neutral from underperform and CenterPoint Energy (CNP) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Dollar Financial (DLLR) and Edwards Lifesciences (EW) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Alterra Capital (ALTE) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) and P.F. Chang's (PFCB) to buy from neutral, as well as SunTrust (STI) to neutral from sell, at Janney Capital.
• Arch Capital (ACGL), Axis Capital (AXS), PartnerRe (PRE), Everest Re (RE) and Transatlantic (TRH) to buy from hold, as well as W. R. Berkley (WRB) to hold from sell, at Citigroup.
• Optimer Pharm (OPTR) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.

NASDAQ OMX (NDAQ), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) offered $42.50 per share to acquire NYSE Euronext (NYX). April and June call option implied volatility is at 22; below its 26-week average of 32 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Pier 1 Imports (PIR) April put option implied volatility is at 58, June is at 54; near its 26-week average of 56 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement into the expected release of Q4 results on April 7.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Monday could have been far worse. Japan led things south with news that the nuclear reactors were not shut down and could pose serious risks ahead. This sent Japan's NIKKEI 225 down more than 6% and back under the dreaded 10,000 mark. US markets held up better than expected, while news that Saudi troops were being asked to enter into protect Bahrain's infrastructure sent oil back up. US markets came back from larger losses late in the session.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow Jones 11,993.16 -51.24 (-0.43%)
S&P 500 1,296.39 -7.89 (-0.60%)
Nasdaq 2,700.97 -14.64 (-0.54%)

Top analyst upgrades and downgrades
Top Japanese fund, ETF, and ADR movers

NYSE Euronext (NYX), which competes with Nasdaq OMX (NDAQ) and CME Group (CME), is the world's leading stock exchange in cash trading, both in terms of volume and value. NYSE provides the trading platform and services for trade execution of stocks listed on its exchanges -- NYSE, NYSE Arca, NYSE Amex -- as well as for orders that are routed to other market centers for execution. It charges transaction fees for executing these trades.

Due to the global economic downturn, NYSE Euronext's EBITDA margin from its cash equity trades in its U.S. exchanges tumbled from around 38% in 2006 to -4.2% in 2009. The margin recovered a bit in 2010, and we expect it to increase slightly in the short term and stabilize thereafter, owing to fierce pricing competition among stock exchanges to gain more volumes. NYSE Euronext could however benefit from economies of scale from its merger with Deutsche Boerse (DBOEY), which can push its margin higher.

Analyst Upgrades

• Polo Ralph Lauren (RL) to neutral from underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL) to outperform from market perform at Leerink.
• Petrobras (PBR) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Silvercorp Metals (SVM) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• PROS (PRO) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Power Integrations (POWI) and Monolithic Power (MPWR) to buy from neutral at Roth Capital.
• Diodes (DIOD) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Whole Foods (WFMI) to hold from sell at Hapoalim.
• Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Sappi (SPP) to outperform from neutral at Macquarie.
• Alpha Natural (ANR) to buy from hold at BB&T.
• Watts Water (WTS) to buy from hold at Brean Murray.

NYSE Euronext (NYX) and Deutsche Boerse confirmed that they are engaged in advanced discussions regarding a potential business combination. February call option implied volatility is at 41, March is at 32, June at 27; compared to its 26-week average of 30, according to Track Data, suggesting larger near-term price movement.

Allstate (ALL) overall option implied volatility is at 24, according to Track Data, above its 26-week average of 27 into its release of Q4 EPS tonight, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Today the market tried to make it eight days in a row for a positive close, but didn't quite pull it off. The markets had been soft much of the day but the flatline was something hard to predict until literally until right at the closing bell. Many overseas markets were lower on the day.

Here were today's closing bell levels:

Dow Jones 12,239.89 +6.74 (0.06%)
S&P 500 1,320.88 -3.69 (-0.28%)
Nasdaq 2,789.07 -7.98 (-0.29%)

Analyst Upgrades

• First Solar (FSLR) to conviction buy from buy at Goldman.
• NYSE Euronext (NYX) to outperform from market Perform at Wells Fargo.
• GSI Commerce (GSIC) and Cabela's (CAB) to overweight from neutral, as well as NovaMed (NOVA) to neutral from underweight, at Piper Jaffray.

Analyst Downgrades

• St. Jude Medical (STJ) to market perform from outperform at Wells Fargo.
• OmniVision (OVTI) to neutral from outperform at RW Baird.
• J & J Snack Foods (JJSF) to neutral from buy at Janney Capital.

Analyst Upgrades

• NYSE Euronex (NYX) to conviction buy from neutral at Goldman.
• General Dynamics (GD) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Deere (DE), Parker-Hannifin (PH) and ExlService (EXLS) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Aflac (AFL) to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
• Wynn Resorts (WYNN) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• Amdocs (DOX) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Juniper (JNPR) to buy from hold at ThinkEquity.
• Rudolph Tech (RTEC) and KLA-Tencor (KLAC) to perform from underperform at Oppenheimer.
• Hershey (HSY) and Pinnacle Entertainment (PNK) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Spirit AeroSystems (SPR) to equal weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley.
• Micron (MU) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.

The future investment stars are already with us. The NYSE Financial Future Challenge, operated by the NYSE Foundation, By Kids for Kids, K12 Inc. and the United Investors Association, is in full swing, with five finalists just identified. To reach this level, the participants had to develop a new product, idea or process that would "excite, educate and motivate their peers" to become interested in the financial marketplace. The eventual winner lurks within this subset and will receive a $2,500 prize -- a great way to get that portfolio started. And, he or she will be feted at a closing bell ceremony at the NYSE (NYX) on January 11, 2010.

The finalists presented a variety of ideas which are sure to generate some buzz. Kelsey Foss, a 12-year-old from Mountainville, NY, proposed a new television show, "Stock Market Tycoon Idol," which would harness the popularity of reality TV while amping up the content. The program would involve the journeys of 10 kids as they seek to make money or lose it, with the possibility of becoming virtual millionaires along the way. The show would be set at a mock NYSE studio on Wall Street, and exports would be brought out to mentor the contestants. The reality TV reach would help engage a younger audience.

The IPO market has been pretty slow for the past two years due to the effects of a subprime mortgage crisis that turned into a credit crisis that turned into a worldwide financial crisis and recession. Nonetheless, two companies made their debuts Thursday -- one on the NYSE (NYSE: NYX), the other on the NASDAQ -- and they nailed it. Hyatt Hotels (NYSE: H) gave its investors a 12% gain on its first Big Board trading day, and Ancestry.com (NASDAQ: ACOM) switched those digits, jumping 21% in its first day of trading.

Hyatt Hotels overcame two major concerns. The worldwide travel market slump has been tough on hotel companies, and Hyatt has been subject to the same forces as everyone else. Also, investors may have been worried about infighting among the founder's heirs (the Pritzker family), but the double-digit price increase suggests that investors don't foresee Bancroft-style squabbles screwing investors -- or, if you don't like Dow Jones, now a part of News Corp (NASDAQ: NWS), Playboy (NYSE: PLA) makes the same point.