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EMI shareholders slow to sell out

Over a week ago, the European private equity firm Terra Firma extended the deadline for its offer to buy EMI Group PLC (LSE: EMI) from July 5 to July 12. It was the second extension the firm had made, and this morning a third extension was made until July 19. According to Billboard.com, by 1 p.m. yesterday, just 3.82% of EMI's shares had been sold to Terra Firma. A week ago, that figure was 3.56%.

Yesterday, the European Commission approved the buyout; the regulatory commission found no antitrust issues. At the same time, EMI stocks dropped from the boost they enjoyed last week, falling from 271 pence on Wednesday's closing to close at 268.75 yesterday afternoon. The stock has fared nicely today, but has not risen much more than one pence in trading.

This third extension from Terra Firma comes in the face of continued hopes from EMI shareholders that Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG) will make a counterbid. Billboard.com has also commented that "WMG is reported to have appointed Alan Mnuchin, of Wall Street investment group AGM Partners, to re-assess how to make another counterbid for EMI."

A merger between EMI and WMG might be beneficial for shareholders, but consumers of music from both companies may not be as happy. EMI dropped the use of Digital Rights Management technology in April, paving the way for higher quality downloads from online stores like Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s iTunes Store and a future Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) store. WMG has remained firm in its support for DRM use. A combination of the two may result in the reversal of DRM-free use of EMI's products.

Rio Tinto gets Alcan

Alcoa (NYSE: AA) made its best offer for Alcan (NYSE: AL) or so its seems. The U.S. company was willing to spend $28 billion to buy its Canadian rival.

The bid was bested today [subscription required] by Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP), another metals company. Its bid is $38 billion. That offer is unlikely to be topped. According to The Wall Street Journal, the combined company will have over $16 billion in cash flow. Assuming, of course, that the price of aluminum stays near historic highs.

The most stunning thing about the Rio Tinto bid is that Alcan was trading at $45 a share at the beginning of the year. Rio Tinto's offer is about $101 a share in cash.

If the forecasts for future earnings are off by much, Rio Tinto's shareholders could end up paying the freight.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

US Airways ups the ante for Delta

US Airways Group Inc. (NYSE: LCC) is trying to pull out all the stops in its attempted hostile takeover of Delta Air Lines Inc. by lifting its offer by $1 Billion.

In order for the offer to get lifted, US Airways wants the official committee to request Delta to open itself up for due diligence by US Airways, to have a bankruptcy judge to postpone a hearing next week on Delta's restructuring plan and agree to support the start of a formal antitrust review.

The committee of Delta creditors will have until Thursday to decide if it wants to proceed with the US Airways offer. For now, I would be willing to bet that Delta is not going to go for this current offer and instead decide to follow the advice of its chief executive, Gerald Grinstein, who has repeatedly insisted the airline would be better off to emerge from bankruptcy-court protection on its own later this year

The main reason behind the raise in the current offer can be traced to a meeting between US Airways and some Delta creditors who aren't part of the official committee that advised the Airliner to increase its current bid by $2 billion. Will this be enough to sway some votes in US Airways favor? I doubt it, but we should get a better picture of the current takeover situation over the next few days.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last two years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.

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Last updated: November 21, 2008: 10:13 PM

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