Analyst Upgrades

• Goldman upgraded BP (BP) to buy from neutral.
• STEC (STEC) was upgraded to buy from hold at Needham.
• MCG Capital (MCGC) was upgraded to buy from hold at BB&T.
• Corporate Office (OFC) was upgraded to market perform from underperform at FBR Capital.
• Citigroup upgraded K-Sea Transportation (KSP) and Post Properties (PPS) to hold from sell.
• BofA/Merrill upgraded Embraer (ERJ) to buy from underperform.
• Wilmington Trust (WL) was upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie.
• Parkway Properties (PKY) was upgraded to hold from sell at Stifel Nicolaus.

OfficeMax (OMX - option chain) shares are rising today after the company reported Q3 earnings this morning, posting a profit of $19.96 million, or 23 cents per share, on revenue of $1.81 billion. Analysts had forecast a profit of 12 cents per share on revenue of $1.82 billion. This company has been struggling to deal with increased competition from Internet retailers like Amazon.com (AMZN) and big-box stores like Staples (SPLS), but today's earnings show some encouraging signs. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on OMX.

OMX opened this morning at $16.52. So far today the stock has hit a low of $16.34 and a high of $17.40. As of 12:10, OMX is trading at $16.93 up $2.08 (14.0%). The chart for OMX looks bearish and S&P gives OMX a negative 2 STARS (out of 5) sell ranking.

Office Depot, Inc. (ODP), whose colleagues include OfficeMax Incorporated (OMX) and Staples, Inc. (SPLS), was off by 1.4% at the time of this writing in afternoon trading. That put the share price below the $7 level. The stock is also well below the 52-week high of $9.19. What do the technical and fundamental factors tell us about the potential of this investment idea?

They're not telling us comforting things, in my opinion. The one-year chart doesn't look too bad. Like many other one-year charts, it shows a company that wants to head higher, albeit in a choppy way.

Staples (SPLS) issued Q3 results early this morning, and the market loved them. In afternoon trading, the stock was bid higher by over 6%, with awesome volume backing the trade.

According to the press release, total sales decreased 6%. Earnings per diluted share declined as well, dropping 7% on an adjusted basis to 39 cents. That was good enough, though, to beat expectations by a penny, as indicated by our preview piece.

Staples Inc. (SPLS), whose website had trouble keeping up with the crush of Black Friday traffic, is scheduled to discuss its third quarter 2009 financial results in a conference call Tuesday, December 1, at 8:00 AM ET. You can catch the live webcast of the call on the company's website.

During the three months that ended in October, Staples executives sold shares and the company was named one of the world's 100 hardest working brands. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the world's biggest office supply superstore operator to report that earnings for that period fell 9.5% from a year ago to $0.38 per share. Revenue for the quarter is expected to be 7.3% lower to $6.5 billion.

Analyst upgrades:

• Kaufman Bros. upgraded Computer Sciences (NYSE: CSC) and Cognizant (NASDAQ: CTSH) to Buy from Hold on better demand trends as it believes overall enterprise IT spending is turning more positive. The firm raised its target on Computer Sciences to $62 from $54 and on Cognizant to $45 from $42.
• Citigroup upgraded E-Trade (NASDAQ: ETFC) to Buy from Hold as it believes loan less trends have improved and the company could potentially be acquired. Citi raised its target on shares to $2.30 from $1.50.
• Auriga upgraded Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) to Buy from Hold as it believes consensus expectations for 2010 are too low, but admits the company's Q1 results could be fairly weak. Auriga believes Microsoft is coming up to its "most powerful product cycle in many years" and raised its price target on shares to $30 from $24.
• Motorola (NYSE: MOT) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
• Fidelity Southern (NASDAQ: LION) was upgraded to Neutral from Reduce at SunTrust.
• Sonoco Products (NYSE: SON) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill.

Albert Gonzalez faced the music in a U.S. District Court in Boston on Friday, pleading guilty to masterminding one of the biggest cases of identity theft in history. The deal he struck with prosecutors could have him turning big rocks into little ones for up to a quarter of a century.

The Miami resident compromised the computer systems of large, high-profile retailers, including TJX (NYSE: TJX), BJ's Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ), OfficeMax (NYSE: OMX), Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS) and Sports Authority. Tens of millions of credit card numbers were swiped in this scheme, leading to 19 counts of conspiracy, computer fraud, wire fraud, access device fraud and aggravated identity theft -- if there are other charges ... well, you get the point.

Albert Gonzalez is calling it quits. Accused of masterminding the largest identity theft in the United States ever, he has agreed to plead guilty in U.S. District Court in Massachusetts. Separate charges filed in New Jersey, however, remain.

The 28 year-old faces 15 to 25 years in prison and will forfeit $1.65 million and a Miami condo (in addition to $1.1 million already seized). If the judge accepts the terms, this would be the longest sentence ever recorded for a hacking case.

Staples (NASDAQ: SPLS), a seller of office supplies and a competitor of chains such as Office Depot (NYSE: ODP), OfficeMax (NYSE: OMX), and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), reported Q2 earnings on Tuesday. Although they weren't that great, I can't say I felt they were a total disaster, either. I think the quarter was lackluster and indicative of the immense work ahead for management in terms of getting people into their stores and increasing sales per transaction.

According to the press release, total sales increased 9% and adjusted earnings per share declined 24% to 16 cents. That's a steep drop, but they did match analyst expectations. Staples used the increase it saw in free cash flow in a smart way: debt reduction. I approve of that move, to be sure.

As the current advertising campaign from Staples Inc. (NASDAQ: SPLS) makes clear, the nation's largest office supply store operator is hoping for what so many retailers (aside perhaps from those participating in the cash for clunkers program) are hoping for: a boost from back-to-school sales. Unfortunately, any such sales won't affect the second quarter results that Staples is scheduled to report tomorrow morning before the market opens. Those results will include July, though, when retail sales were disappointing all around.

Staples is scheduled to discuss its second quarter 2009 results tomorrow morning in a conference call at 8:00 AM ET. You can catch the live webcast of the call on the company's website.

Staples (NASDAQ: SPLS) issued its Q1 report on Wednesday. Call me unimpressed. It beat earnings estimates by a penny, coming in at 22 cents on an adjusted basis. Sure, that's what investors want to see. They want the bottom line to go beyond expectations.

But there isn't a lot of excitement to be had with the Staples story. According to the press release, that 22-cent figure represented a decline of 27% in per-share profit. Furthermore, there's weakness in terms of same-store sales. In the North American market, comps dipped 8%. On the international front, comps went down by 14% in Europe.

Staples (NASDAQ: SPLS), whose colleagues include Office Depot (NYSE: ODP) and OfficeMax (NYSE: OMX), is set to report earnings for the fourth quarter on Wednesday, March 11. The famous seller of office supplies has seen its stock go from a 52-week high of $26.57 all the way down to a 52-week low of $13.57.

Actually, that's one of the better ranges I've seen! Goes to show how bad things are out there. Staples saw its shares close at $14.63 on Monday, so a beat on the bottom line could really help things out.

Will management be able to beat? I don't have much confidence that it will, but that doesn't necessarily have to do with Staples per se, it's just that the economy's got me down on so many of these earnings prospects. Analysts are hoping for Staples to do about 42 cents per share in Q4, which would represent a 10% drop in the bottom line.

Among all the negative economic data that came out last week was a positive surprise: retail sales were higher in January. A fluke or a glimmer at the end of the tunnel? That may depend on whether we see any positive surprises arising from items on this week's economic calendar:

• Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference: Monday through Friday
• NY Empire Manufacturing Index (Feb. 2009): Tuesday, 8:30 AM
• NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb. 2009): Tuesday, 1:00 PM
• Fed's Bullard speaks before National Association of Business Economists: Tuesday, 1:00 PM
• Housing starts (Jan. 2009): Wednesday, 8:30 AM
• Fed's Pianalto speaks before Commercial Developers Power Breakfast: Wednesday, 9:00 AM
• Industrial production (Jan. 2009): Wednesday, 9:15 AM
• Fed's Bernanke speaks before National Press Club Luncheon: Wednesday, 12:30 PM

Poor Office Depot (NYSE: ODP). Have you checked the price of the retailer's stock lately? It closed on Wednesday with a value of $2.10. It actually rose over 11% that day upon news of its third-quarter earnings. I can assure you that I wasn't buying the stock.

The numbers didn't tell the story of a company that would make a worthy addition to a stock portfolio hell bent on hanging tough during a market meltdown. Instead, the 7% revenue decrease and the loss per share, on an adjusted basis, of $0.01 relate a tale of a business that one should ignore. At least that's the way I see things. Comps in the North American retail division were horrible. The return on invested capital as calculated by management took a significant drop. Let's face it, Office Depot just isn't cutting it. Granted, the economy is wreaking havoc on the business, but come to think of it, I don't really have a good picture of what the brand is supposed to be about. Well, I know it's about office supplies, but why should I shop there as opposed to Staples (NASDAQ: SPLS) or OfficeMax (NYSE: OMX)? Good question, huh? Looks like the retailer needs to get the message out as to why the shopping experience at its locations is of a higher value compared to the office stores mentioned. For that matter, I'm sure a lot of people use Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) to pick up office supplies too. My point is that management needs to step up its game and create some better marketing programs for its stores. Be creative like Staples. That "easy button" device is turning into a cool cultural icon (well, I might be exaggerating, but I think it's creative, at any rate).

Earlier, I said "at least that's the way I see things" in terms of my opinion about the sad state of Office Depot, but I suppose I should point out that there are obviously a lot of investors out there who don't see a lot to love when it comes to this chain. The stock is down over 63% on the one-month period at the time of this writing. I see no reason to speculate on this business. The economy isn't getting better, and Office Depot just doesn't seem to be in a strong position. What will it take to turn things around? Like I say, in addition to hoping for an improved macro climate, come up with a better advertising campaign, build a more intense connection with the consumer. Office supplies are commodities, but shopping experience is not. That's the opportunity. Differentiating a brand from the competition based on things like customer service and an easy time of it at the checkout register is a traditional strategy in the retail industry. If Office Depot can offer something in that area, it should let me know about it. Since just about every retailer is struggling to keep the traffic coming into their chains, now is the time to exploit the other guy's weakened state and grab every customer possible.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Today and yesterday will go down in the history books as THE BAILOUT DAYS. The market was up sharply on record volume and short squeezes almost everywhere after the government bailout plans and the ban on short selling financial stocks. As the advance-decline line was massive with 85% NYSE stocks and 71% of NASDAQ stocks up on last look today, we wanted to mostly cover some of the ones which failed to chase the market. Here are today's unofficial closing bell averages:
DJIA 11,385.51 +365.82; +3.32%
NASDAQ 2,264.83 +65.73; +2.99%
S&P500 1,250.90 +44.39; +3.68%
10YR T-Bond 3.769% +0.332%
52-week lows
Top Analyst Upgrades
Top Analyst Downgrades

The biggest winner of the troubled financial stocks in today's final minutes was American International Group (NYSE: AIG). There was no news from the company, it was all the bailout and barring of short sales in the stock. Its shares were up more than 57% at $4.24 in today's final minutes before the close.

As we wanted to focus on the stocks that lagged today, here is that list of key stocks....

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) was down 4% at $20.02 in the final minutes before the close but shares had been down as low as $19.27 today. Its loss of search market share again hurt the stock and day traders pounded it early on.