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Global Q&A: Opportunity in the energy sell-off

I am the Global Editor at MoneyShow.com and each week I interview an investing expert. This week, I spoke with Sam Hopkins, editor of Energy and Capital, who despite the recent sell-off in energy, sees potential in energy.

Q. Sam, in a recent piece on the Russia/Georgia conflict, you cautioned your subscribers to watch their Russian shares closely, but to hold onto their energy shares. Would you expand on that advice?

A. Well, we see a mix of geopolitical risk and opportunity in the flare-up between Russia and Georgia. Ironically, the opportunity for energy investors comes from the risk itself. It's hard to put your finger on exactly how much the "risk premium" in a barrel of oil is (meaning, what dollar amount is priced in to accommodate for pipeline leaks, theft, war, or other factors that can affect supply). But what we do know is that in Russia's case, as one of the world's top producers of hydrocarbons, national oil and gas companies stand to gain when futures prices rise. In this way, Russian energy stocks like Gazprom (OTC: OGZPY) and Rosneft (OTC: RNGZY), both of which trade in London and here on the Pink Sheets, may gain even while the broader Moscow market turns downward.

Q. Many investors may view this conflict as an example of why international markets may be too risky for their money. After all, the Russian stock market - the RTS - has fallen about 20% in the past month. Will you share your thoughts on why investors need to diversify abroad?

Continue reading Global Q&A: Opportunity in the energy sell-off

Russian gusher: Best energy bets

"I've long favored Russia for investment, building my case around its energy sector and the infrastructure boom taking place," says Yiannis Mostrous in Silk Road Investor. Here are his top energy plays.

"Russia is currently in a sweet spot: It's a net oil exporter, has solid GDP growth, isn't dependent on foreign capital flows, is politically stable, has reasonable market valuations and, above all, enjoys solid exposure to the biggest growth story of our time, Asia.

"Russia's GDP grew by 8.5% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2008, stronger than expectations. The expansion was broad based: construction, manufacturing, electricity generation and services all showed healthy growth.

"Russia's energy companies have underperformed because of the relatively heavy tax burden imposed by the state. But the Russian economy has turned around, and the government has announced tax cuts that will take effect 1 January 2009, saving the industry USD1.30 per barrel of crude produced.

Continue reading Russian gusher: Best energy bets

Should you invest abroad?

Is investing abroad because the U.S. is going through a rough patch a good idea? If so, why? What foreign markets are attractive? Investing abroad is a good idea -- but not because the U.S. is melting down. Instead, it turns out that emerging markets are outperforming developing ones because they are supplying the commodities that fuel demand for 10% annual growth in emerging markets like China and India.

Emerging markets are up 20% in the last year while developed markets like the U.S. are flat. The reason to invest in these markets is not so much because the U.S. is going through a rough patch but more because these other markets are doing so much better and they are going to continue to do well regardless of what happens in the U.S.

But the U.S.'s rough patch may not be as bad as people had thought. An economist at Wachovia Corp. (NYSE: WB) changed his estimate of the chances of a recession from 90% to 45%. So the U.S. may turn out to be a good place to invest if stocks are priced for a recession that doesn't happen.

Continue reading Should you invest abroad?

Newspaper wrap-up 6-21-07: More Dow Jones headlines

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • Mohamed Abdulmohsin Al Kharafi & Sons WLL, a Kuwaiti-based firm led by the Al Kharafi family, recently bought 1.25 million shares of Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc (NYSE: KKD) and now owns 7.37, or 11.4% of Krispy Kreme, according to Barron's Online's "Inside Scoop" section.
  • The board of Dow Jones & Company Inc (NYSE: DJ) is taking over talks on the company's future, reported the Wall Street Journal, which added in a different article that Brad Greenspan, the former CEO of MySpace says he will seek a non-controlling stake in Dow Jones through a $60-per-share Dutch auction.
  • The Wall Street Journal reported that the London Exchange is discussing a possible merger with Italian stock exchange operator Borsa Italiana.
OTHER PAPERS:

Global gains: From Russia with love

I've just returned from the World Money Show, where more than 10,000 investors gathered to learn about global investing. I had a chance to meet with many of the advisors featured at the show, and I have been highlighting some of their favorite investment ideas. To view all of the stocks featured in this special global report, click here.

"Investors in Russia had more than New Year's Eve as a reason to party as 2006 came to an end, notes Ian Wyatt. "The Russian stock market closed at an all-time high, capping a year in which the dollar-based benchmark Russian Trading System index gained 70%."

The editor-in-chief of Big Idea Investing explains, "In most developing countries, such a gain would usually be a sign of speculators gone crazy, and a stern warning to take your money and run before the inevitable collapse.

"But that doesn't necessarily apply here. The MSCI Russell index has soared almost 500% in dollar terms over the last five years. Some of these returns stem from the rise in oil and gas prices, two commodities of which Russia has enormous reserves.

"It's a long way from 1992, when almost overnight the Soviet Union imploded. Fuel was added to the fire by oil prices, which had started a long climb to record levels. From just $8.8 billion in 1998, revenues from oil exports soared to more than $58 billion by 2004.

"Ford (NYSE:F) and Toyota (NYSE:TM) already have car plants in operation, and will soon be joined by General Motors (NYSE:GM). Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) has made significant investments, and oil giant ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) said it plans to almost double its investment over the next decade to as much as $15 billion.

Continue reading Global gains: From Russia with love

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+44.2910,291.26
NASDAQ+15.822,166.90
S&P 500+5.501,098.51

Last updated: November 11, 2009: 10:09 PM

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