"Long term, supply remains the key issue to watch in the crude oil market; depressed prices continue to force producers to scale back on exploration and development spending," says energy expert Elliott Gue.

In The Energy Strategist, he says, "I watch oil service giant Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) as a gauge of overall health in energy markets; it has its hands in just about every imaginable oil- or gas-producing market on the planet."

"Schlumberger's fourth quarter earnings release and conference call were far and away the most bearish from the company in at least five years.

"CEO Andrew Gould was notably downbeat, particularly during the analysts' question and answer (Q&A) session. Predictably, earnings estimates have plummeted since that call.

While many older oil fields are producing less than they used to, new discoveries of crude may make up for that. The Wall Street Journal reports, "Projects under way in Brazil, Saudi Arabia, West Africa, the Caspian Sea and the Gulf of Mexico will more than make up for natural declines from fields now in production."

If the information is accurate and oil demand falls due to an economic slowdown, prices for crude could drop over the next several years.

What is not clear is whether demand for oil in markets like China and India will continue to spike up. If the Chinese government is willing to underwrite the cost of gas and diesel for its industrial and consumer sectors, the use of oil in that country could continue to rise at an alarming rate.

Distorted demand, caused by the Chinese government, could be the wild card in oil pricing.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Analysts expect oil and gas production growth of 17%-20% in 2007, and 14%-17% in 2008. Analysts also like XTO's 6.9 trillion cubic feet of proved natural gas reserves. Look for natural gas to play a larger role in the United States' energy use, amid sustained high oil prices and increasing environmental awareness. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for XTO are $4.40/$4.33.

"The big, integrated oil companies are known for their relative safety and stability, and most have been paying dividends for many years " says energy expert Elliott Gue.

In his The Energy Strategist he explains, "These have been among the most reliable stocks investors can own in the long run." Here, he looks at Chevron (NYSE: CVX), which he calls his favorite among the US independent oil companies.

"Chevron remains relatively cheap in three valuation measures: price-to-barrel of oil equivalents; price-to-earnings and price-to-cash-flow. And while its 2.7% yield doesn't exactly make Chevron an income stock, it's consistently boosted that payout over time by more than 10% annualized over the past five years.

"Chevron is also one of the only Super Oils that will show meaningful growth in production over the coming few years. Even more important, it's scheduled to start up four major projects over just the next two years that will generate significant production growth upside near term. Here's a quick rundown:

"Tahiti is a deepwater field in the Gulf of Mexico where Chevron holds a 58% stake. The field is expected to have a peak production rate of 125,000 barrels of oil per day and 70 million cubic feet of natural gas.

The world's largest oil company, Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) announced today that it has signed a 5 year agreement with the national oil company of Libya to explore its offshore potential.

Exxon Mobil stated that this agreement provides the company with exploration rights to "one of the most prospective unlicensed areas" located in the Libyan offshore area. The offshore exploration will take place approximately 110 miles off the Libyan coast, and the area is roughly 2.5 million acres. The water depth of the location ranges between 5,400 feet to more than 8,700 feet below sea level.

The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reported that under the terms of the deal, Exxon Mobil will drill at least one well in the area, as well as pay a bonus to the Libyan government. Terms of the bonus were not disclosed.

Last year Libya ranked 8th in production among OPEC nations, and was removed from the U.S. list of countries that sponsored terrorism less than two years ago.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last two years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer. DISCLOSURE: Mr. Fowlkes owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that include holdings in XOM.

Oilfield services company Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB) is likely to benefit from growing demand for oilfield services technology, particularly in the high technology-dependent Middle East, Africa, and Eastern Europe regions.

Further, although North American margins have narrowed somewhat so far in 2007, international margins widened. Overall, in 2008 analysts see SLB's margins totaling 30% -- still a very healthy figure -- with revenue growth of 12-14%.