Many people are saying that the rise in oil prices is the result of loose monetary policy. They say that there is an easy solution to the problem. Raise interest rates substantially, and the problem will be solved. Since the rise in oil is also the primary cause of rising inflation, the inflation problem will be resolved as well.

There are several problems with this line of reasoning. Oil continued to rise as the Fed began to increase interest rates in 2004. Prices doubled as the Fed substantially tightened monetary policy. Europe also has the some of the same inflation issues that we face despite the refusal of the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower rates.

Then, there are the big questions. Why are oil prices rising? What is the short-term solution?

I believe that the main reason for the rise in oil prices is the rise of the developing world. The two nine hundred pound gorillas in this equation are India and China. Automobile demand is increasing in these countries and is likely to continue in the near future.

This is similar to the rise in oil prices in the late 1960's and early 1970's. After World War II, the United States was the primary industrial power. As the world industrialized, demand for oil increased. The United States was not the only nation driving cars extensively. Supply constraints were also introduced in the mid to late 1970's with the Arab oil embargo and the Iranian revolution.

This post is based on an article written by Alexander Green, Investment Director of The Oxford Club. My thanks to Mr. Green for his straightforward insight.

Let me begin by stating that my only argument against the oil industry has been their "the only game in town" attitude. Never have I complained that oil companies show too much profit. I have never accused the oil industry of gouging or unjust profiteering. With that stated, let us continue:

Oil companies DO NOT set gasoline prices at the pump. Those prices are dictated entirely by supply and demand economics. The single biggest driving force in the economics of crude oil today is the increasing demand by growing industrialized nations, China being the biggest by far. Even the United States Supreme Court declared that they find no evidence that oil companies are manipulating oil prices in any undue manner. This issue will, of course, remain in hot public debate.