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ConocoPhillips barely tops second-quarter expectations

Oil firm ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) reported second-quarter earnings of 87 cents per share this morning, barely edging the consensus estimate calling for 85 cents per share. Despite topping the consensus estimate, the results fell well short of last year's same-quarter earnings of $3.50 per share.

Quarterly revenue totaled $35.4 billion, which was less than half of the $71.4 billion earned a year ago. CEO and chairman Jim Mulva noted in the company's press release, "we delivered solid operational results during the quarter," despite lower commodity prices and margins in the second quarter.

Continue reading ConocoPhillips barely tops second-quarter expectations

Consider Chevron (CVX), because the U.S.'s romance with the car continues

A new U.S. administration's promise to create a more self-reliant, energy-independent nation and the impact of efforts to first limit, then eliminate global warming from fossil fuels opens the door to alternative energy source development.

But, as Saudi Arabia reminds us, barring a breakthrough technology, fossil fuels with remain a major energy source for the world for at least the next thirty to 50 years. In other words, the U.S.'s romance with the car lives: it's merely paused, not ended.

Oil is down now, but it's not out and it isn't going away anytime soon, which is why risk-tolerant investors should consider Chevron.

Continue reading Consider Chevron (CVX), because the U.S.'s romance with the car continues

Regulators to probe possible price manipulation in oil market

U.S. regulators Friday disclosed a broad nationwide investigation into potential oil-market manipulation and said they are expanding surveillance of energy markets, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission announcement of an ongoing and widening inquiry occurs amid a 4-year rise in crude oil prices in which gasoline, diesel, and heating oil prices hit record highs, Reuters reported Friday.

Oil closed Friday up 73 cents to $127.35 per barrel. Oil has risen about 100% in the past 12 months.

Many Congressional officials and consumer groups have been arguing for a systematic investigation into futures prices, asserting that institutional investors and other speculators have manipulated oil prices and driven them "artificially higher."

Others, including economists and oil executives, argue that the price increases have more to do with the sector's bullish fundamentals, including inadequate crude oil production growth amid rising demand.

Oil Analysis: Strong evidence suggests that the bulk of oil's 4-year bullish run is rooted in fundamentals, with the reduction in the global safety cushion -- the spare oil between daily global oil supply and demand -- accounting for today's near-record oil prices. Still, that's not to say a rigorous inquiry would not yield compelling data or new insights. One area of interest that the inquiry will explore: whether oil storage operators have issued misleading information about oil in their tanks to profit from oil trades, Reuters reported Friday.

Chevron: Lessen the impact of surging gasoline prices

Readers of this space know that one of the preferred sectors has been the oil/oil services sector. Further, with oil now well above $110 per barrel, one may think that all of the affordable oil plays have been bid up. Indeed, most have, but not Chevron.

Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) is the third-largest integrated oil company in the United States.

Chevron's organic reserve replacement, excluding Canadian oil sands, is sub-par, but just about every other dimension of CVX's operation rates good to strong.

Chevron's most attractive dimension? CVX has the equivalent of 'the facilities of significance' in an oil-challenged world, and especially in a gasoline-challenged United States: 22 fuel refineries, to go along with 2 asphalt plants, for a total refining capacity of 2.21 million barrels per day. Almost half of that fuel refining is based in the United States.

Continue reading Chevron: Lessen the impact of surging gasoline prices

Occidental Petroleum: Turn the oil shock to your advantage

The record run of oil, already up a gaudy 400% since 2000, continues, with prices breaking through $122 per barrel on Tuesday, May 6, 2008.

Meanwhile, gasoline prices, up about 20% in the past six months alone, and about 100% in the past four years, show few signs of moderating in the months ahead.

It's the era of high oil/energy prices, and until a readily-available, affordable energy substitute is found and/or oil prices decline, the oil / oil services sector will be in demand, which bodes well for Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY).

Continue reading Occidental Petroleum: Turn the oil shock to your advantage

TXCO Resources: A low profile oil & natural gas play

Readers of this space know that one of my preferred sectors has been in oil and oil services.

Further, with oil now well above $110 per barrel, one may think that all of the attractive oil plays have been bid up. Indeed, most have, but one that may represent an opportunity, for high-risk investors only, is TXCO Resources.

TXCO Resources (NASDAQ: TXCO) acquires, explores, develops, and produces oil and gas properties. The company's primary focus is on developing oil and gas reserves on properties located in Texas. The company's reserve mix is 54% oil and 46% natural gas.

In general, analysts expect TXCO's revenue to increase by better than 20% in F2008 after an impressive 30% gain in F2007.

Further, analysts also like the fact that TXCO's proved reserves increased substantially, via drilling and acquisition, to 91.8 billion CFE at the end of F2007, from 41.4 billion CFE at the end of F2006. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for TXCO are 57 cents / 75 cents.

Continue reading TXCO Resources: A low profile oil & natural gas play

Venezuela starts collecting new windfall profits tax on oil companies

Venezuela has started collecting its new foreign oil companies windfall profits tax, as part of President Hugo Chavez' plan to gain a larger share of oil company profits, The Associated Press reported.

The tax is based on the monthly average price of benchmark Brent crude oil. The tax kicks in when the price of benchmark Brent crude sits above $70 per barrel, The Wall Street Journal(subscription required) reported. If oil prices remain above that threshold for one month, the state will take 50% of the difference between this average and the final sale price of every barrel. When Brent crude exceeds the $100-a-barrel average, the rate will rises to 60%.

'21st-century socialism'

President Chavez, a Socialist, has said the tax is necessary to fund key social programs as part of his effort to implement an economic and social system he calls "21st-century socialism." Critics say the tax will slow investment and development in the oil sector, and also discourage other foreign direct investment in Venezuela.

Continue reading Venezuela starts collecting new windfall profits tax on oil companies

With Cimarex Energy, the key is project selectivity

Given oil's importance in a growing global economy, natural gas and oil companies are likely to continue to experience steady demand for their services/products, and a provider worth a review is Cimarex Energy.

Cimarex Energy (NYSE: XEC) is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company.

In general, analysts see 2-5% production growth in F2008, including impressive drilling activity in the Permian Basin, Mid-Continent Granite Wash, and Gulf Coast Yegua/Cook Mountain regions. The company has proved reserves of more than 1.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent.

Meanwhile, given high service costs, XEC is expected to be more selective regarding projects, favoring those projects that meet reservoir size requirements and that do not exceed project cost limits. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for XEC are $4.89/$4.71

The risks? A substantial, sustained decline in oil / natural gas prices would hurt XEC's results. Production underperformance or severe weather also would hurt the company's results.

The First Call mean rating for XEC is: Hold. [6 firms.] Mean 2008 target: $58. [high: $68, low: $50.]

Stock Analysis: Cimarex Energy is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 2 years should be rewarded from XEC's shares. Note: More-cautious investors may consider waiting until XEC pulls-back to $51, but keep in mind that XEC may not retreat to that level. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $36.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.

Petroleo Brasileiro has the economies of scale investors like

Readers of this space know that one argument forwarded here is that in the era of elevated energy prices oil/natural gas companies are likely to remain promising plays for the foreseeable future, baring the discovery of a cheap, widely-available, alternative energy source. And among oil/natural gas companies, Petroleo Brasileiro is worth a review.

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (ADR) (NYSE: PBR) is Brazil's largest industrial operation, with oil/gas production, refining and purchasing businesses, and oil/gas transport services.

Analysts like PBR's proven reserves of 15 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 12,900 wells, 16 refineries, 31,000 kilometers of pipeline, and 5,870 gasoline stations.

Continue reading Petroleo Brasileiro has the economies of scale investors like

Conoco shares rise on higher Q4 production guidance

ConocoPhillips said it now expects Q4 production to exceed Q3 production by 60,000 barrels of equivalent oil, to about 1.86 million barrels of equivalent oil, the company announced Thursday in a statement.

Conoco (NYSE: COP) also said it expects both Q4 crude oil and U.S. natural gas prices to be higher on a sequential basis. Conoco's shares gained 82 cents to $88.71 on the news in Thursday afternoon trading.

The company said it also expects an after-tax negative impact of about $250 million for Alaska's new production tax. About $100 million of that amount is for the 2006 and 2007 periods. Conoco said it also expects a $350 million revenue gain stemming from Canada's tax-rate reduction act and the release of specific escrow funds.

ConocoPhillips also expects domestic refining and marketing margins to decrease slightly in Q4, offset by a higher, average, worldwide crude oil refining capacity utilization rate.

Stock Analysis: First recommended in this space in October 2007 at about $85, ConocoPhillips is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon of at least one year who need an integrated oil stock / energy stock should benefit from COP's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $58.

DISCLOSURE: Joseph Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.

ExxonMobil (XOM): Own a giant

ExxonMobil By now, many investors/readers have heard the statistic: if ExxonMobil's 2007 revenue of $390.2 billion were listed as GDP, it would rank as the 31st largest nation in the world, in purchasing power parity terms.

It's easy to criticize Exxon (NYSE: XOM). When you're the world's largest integrated oil company in a world that's increasingly seeing both the financial and environmental costs of oil, it's hard not to be criticized. Moreover, Exxon, like other oil companies, may face additional operational constraints regarding fossil fuels, moving forward -- particularly if the Democratic party wins the White House in 2008. Further, it's not entirely clear that the company will remain a leading provider of energy when that energy becomes primarily renewable and alternative.

Continue reading ExxonMobil (XOM): Own a giant

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-17.2410,433.71
NASDAQ-6.832,169.18
S&P 500-0.591,105.65

Last updated: November 24, 2009: 10:16 PM

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