"In a year wracked by economic uncertainty and stumbling global stock markets, Russia has been an unlikely standout performer," explains global investment expert Nick Vardy.
"Even as China is now down by more than 50%, bad boy Russia's performance has been second only to Brazil this year and it actually has outperformed its BRIC rival by a hair during the past three months.
"Despite Russia's reputation as a country rife with corruption, scant respect for genuine democracy and the Rule of Law, it's always hard to argue with success.
"Scan the Russian press, and it quickly becomes apparent that the contrast between the collective economic mood of Russia and the United States couldn't be sharper. While U.S. drivers cringe at $4 per gallon gas, Russia celebrates high oil prices as the source of its newfound wealth.
"To add insult to injury, the most recent Forbes 400 list confirms that Moscow now boasts more billionaires than New York City.
"Refiners enjoy a virtual monopoly. The high price of crude has put the squeeze on profit margins -- especially in the case of gasoline, even though it is selling for over $4.00 now. Gasoline always becomes a political issue during election season.
"Nevertheless, gasoline prices are generally rising. The stock market is also getting 'depression minded,' to the point of paranoia; and this fear is dragging some stocks like refiners lower with the tide.
"The current profit squeeze will not be permanent, but Valero has another arrow in its quiver. They are able to process sour crude, which is becoming more prevalent as exporters keep more of the good stuff (light sweet crude) at home and ship the heavy sour crude.
"In general, investors are still seeing selloffs as buying opportunities even though the majority of stocks are in a bear market. We are not sure how long this can continue.
"Our 'Crazy Investor Index' does not yet show the type of extreme fear that is typical at a bottom, so it will probably mill around in short-term rallies and selloffs until something motivates them to panic simultaneously.
"In the meantime, we prefer to buy excellent companies just as the herd decides to stampede. And while our portfolio is now slightly net short we are adding one new long position: Petroleo Brasileiro S.A., often referred to as Petrobras.
Leading advisor Jack Adamo, editor of Insiders Plus, reports that a Goldman Sachs analyst has chosen one of the stocks on his newsletter's buy list -- ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) -- as his top pick in the energy sector.
"There was an extremely interesting piece recently in Barron's by the oil analyst at Goldman Sachs who predicted $100 oil back in late 2004. We'd been buying energy stocks for almost a year at that point, but, although I expected oil prices to rise, I had no idea they'd go this high.
"In any case, the analyst, whose name is Arjun Murti, said he expects oil to reach $150 to $200 sometime within the next 24 months. The low end of that range is only a Middle East incident away, but the high end still seems like a reach, especially given weakening economic conditions.
Although he has been maintaining a cautious stance on the refining group, energy sector expert Elliott Gue is now boosting the rating on Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO).
In his The Energy Strategist, the advisor explains, "Valero is now attractive for three reasons: superior geographic exposure, refinery complexity and a new focus on profitability."
"Our caution on the refining group was due to expectations that crack spreads would be weak through the spring, a period during which spreads tend to widen. Overall, this call was correct: Refiners have underperformed the energy patch since mid-March.
"And longer term, I have some concerns about new refining capacity expansions due to come online over the next few years. As this supply comes online, it could put downside pressure on margins.
"But over the next six to nine months, the refiners look like a compelling play. Gasoline inventories are now back in line with seasonal norms; it's likely gasoline prices will now rally further relative to crude oil. In fact, we're already seeing an obvious spike in crack spreads.
"One of my favorite indicators for the energy markets is the quarterly conference calls and earnings releases from Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB)," says energy sector expert Elliott Gue.
In his The Energy Strategist, he explains, "In this quarter's call, Schlumberger's management team was notably upbeat, the most positive on industry growth expectations in more than a year. This is a key shift in sentiment that has broader implications for the energy patch at large."
"Schlumberger's reports and conference calls have proved extraordinarily useful in the past for determining the most profitable trends and investment themes. The reason for that is simple: Schlumberger is the largest oilfield services company and has its hand in just about every imaginable market all over the world.
"In addition, the company has traditionally offered long, detailed conference calls; CEO Andrew Gould often relates far more than the outlook for Schlumberger and offers considerable color and detail concerning trends for the industry in general.
"This quarter's conference call was no exception. Schlumberger's outlook this quarter was far more upbeat than in its third and fourth quarter 2007 earnings calls.
During Thursday's trading, Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) hit an all-time high of $78.75 and closed at $77.62. Anadarko was one of my first recommendations after I started writing for BloggingStocks, and is nearing 100% appreciation from the $40 price tag it had when we acquired it.
The 10-year chart below indicates the strong long-term performance of Anadarko, rising about 500% and paying dividends to boot. I cannot say the stock is a bargain at recent highs, but I can emphatically state that this company belongs on your watch list.
The record run of oil, already up a gaudy 400% since 2000, continues, with prices breaking through $122 per barrel on Tuesday, May 6, 2008.
Meanwhile, gasoline prices, up about 20% in the past six months alone, and about 100% in the past four years, show few signs of moderating in the months ahead.
It's the era of high oil/energy prices, and until a readily-available, affordable energy substitute is found and/or oil prices decline, the oil / oil services sector will be in demand, which bodes well for Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY).
"When it comes to oil services, the world's most dominant company by far is Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB)," says Stephen Leeb, editor of The Complete Investor. Here, he looks at this "extraordinary" company.
"The question isn't whether inflation will worsen-it's how to protect yourself. Major and obvious lifelines we've stressed include precious metal and commodity companies, especially ones able to boost production.
"For additional inflation insurance, look to what Warren Buffett likes to call 'great companies.' These have two crucial characteristics that allow them to take inflation in stride.
"First, a great company is so dominant in its market that it can pass rising costs along to its customers. And second, it's in a market growing faster than the world's economy.
Validea selects its recommended stocks based on the criteria of various legendary stock gurus. For one of its latest ideas -- BP (NYSE: BP) -- editor John Reese explains, "The stock gets approval from three of my strategies, earning high marks from the models that I base on the writings of Peter Lynch, James O'Shaughnessy, and Kenneth Fisher."
The advisor suggests, "BP is a London-based worldwide energy company. Among BP's activities are oil and natural gas exploration and production, and the refining, transportation, and selling or trading of crude oil and other petroleum products.
"The oil giant -- with customers in more than 100 countries across six continents -- also has branches dedicated to alternative fuels such as wind, solar, and hydrogen power.
"Because of the firm's 31.77% growth rate (based on the average of the three-, four-, and five-year EPS figures), my Lynch-based model considers BP a fast-grower. To identify growth stocks that are still selling at a good price, Lynch uses the P/E/Growth ratio, which divides a company's price-to-earnings ratio by its historic growth rate.
"P/E/G ratios lower than 1.0 are acceptable according to this model, with those under 0.5 the best case. With a P/E ratio of 10.17 and that 31.77 percent growth rate, BP boasts an excellent 0.32 P/E/G, which falls into that best case category.
Readers of this space know that one argument forwarded here is that in the era of elevated energy prices oil/natural gas companies are likely to remain promising plays for the foreseeable future, barring the discovery of a cheap, widely-available, alternative energy. And among oil/natural gas companies, Continental Resources is worth a review.
Continental Resources, Inc. (NYSE: CLR) searches for oil/natural gas beneath the North American continent, in the Rocky Mountain, Mid-Continent, and Gulf Coast regions.
Analysts like the fact that CLR has added reserves of 96.2 million barrels of oil equivalent via growth during 2001-2006. The company has proven reserves totaling 118.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, 1,172 drilling locations and 737,000 acres of leasehold properties.
Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) is an oil/natural gas exploration company, with operations in the U.S., Canada, and abroad.
Readers of this space know that one argument forwarded here is that in the era of elevated energy prices, oil/natural gas companies are likely to remain promising plays for the foreseeable future, baring the discovery of a cheap, widely-available, alternative energy. And among oil/natural gas companies, Devon Energy is worth an evaluation.
Analysts like DVN's sizable proved oil/gas reserves of 2.34 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Production volume should increase 4-5% in 2007 and 7-11% in 2008. Analysts also like Devon's strategy decision to sell international assets with lower growth prospects. Meanwhile, the company's overall costs remain reasonable.
ConocoPhillips said it now expects Q4 production to exceed Q3 production by 60,000 barrels of equivalent oil, to about 1.86 million barrels of equivalent oil, the company announced Thursday in a statement.
Conoco (NYSE: COP) also said it expects both Q4 crude oil and U.S. natural gas prices to be higher on a sequential basis. Conoco's shares gained 82 cents to $88.71 on the news in Thursday afternoon trading.
The company said it also expects an after-tax negative impact of about $250 million for Alaska's new production tax. About $100 million of that amount is for the 2006 and 2007 periods. Conoco said it also expects a $350 million revenue gain stemming from Canada's tax-rate reduction act and the release of specific escrow funds.
ConocoPhillips also expects domestic refining and marketing margins to decrease slightly in Q4, offset by a higher, average, worldwide crude oil refining capacity utilization rate.
Stock Analysis: First recommended in this space in October 2007 at about $85, ConocoPhillips is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon of at least one year who need an integrated oil stock / energy stock should benefit from COP's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $58.
DISCLOSURE: Joseph Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.
By now, many investors/readers have heard the statistic: if ExxonMobil's 2007 revenue of $390.2 billion were listed as GDP, it would rank as the 31st largest nation in the world, in purchasing power parity terms.
It's easy to criticize Exxon (NYSE: XOM). When you're the world's largest integrated oil company in a world that's increasingly seeing both the financial and environmental costs of oil, it's hard not to be criticized. Moreover, Exxon, like other oil companies, may face additional operational constraints regarding fossil fuels, moving forward -- particularly if the Democratic party wins the White House in 2008. Further, it's not entirely clear that the company will remain a leading provider of energy when that energy becomes primarily renewable and alternative.