Wednesday afternoon following the market close, Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) will be reporting its fiscal first quarter earnings, and analysts are looking to see the company show earnings for the quarter of 92 cents per share.
The last time that the company reported was back on June 25, when it was able to beat out Wall Street estimates by two pennies, with a reported 98 cents per share for its fiscal fourth quarter, mostly a result of strong international demand, which was able to overcome weak consumer spending that hurt the company at home in the U.S. In fact, to find the last time that the company reported quarterly figures under Wall Street estimates, you would have to go all the way back to its fiscal fourth quarter 2006 when it missed by a penny, with a reported 70 cents per share.
On a year over year basis, should Nike come in with 92 cents per share, it would be a 16.9% drop from the $1.12 that it was able to earn during the first quarter of 2007.
The Olympics were supposed to be NBC's big profit engine for this year. The unit has been something of a disappointment to parent General Electric (NYSE: GE), but one event could have changed that.
Indeed, NBC's ratings for its Olympic programming seem to have been outstanding and its broadcast revenues for the event may set a record for TV ad income for sports programming.
But internet revenue for NBC's coverage may be remarkably small. According toThe Wall Street Journal, "NBCOlympics.com will generate just $5.75 million in video-ad revenue from the Games, according to estimates from research firm eMarketer Inc." Some of the disappointing numbers could come from the decision to run only a modest amount of coverage on the website, but the problem may by much greater than that.
Web video may be a bust, at least from a revenue standpoint. There is more and more evidence that points in that direction. YouTube has certainly been a huge disappointment for Google (NASDAQ: GOOG). Viacom has struggled with making big money off the online version of MTV. Video has done very little to bring extra revenue to Facebook and MySpace.
The problem with selling video commercials on the internet could be that consumers have come to expect that everything online is free. Banner ads and search ads are easy to avoid as there is nothing active or intrusive about them. Video ads often start to play whether the person online wants to see them or not. That may lead to a rejection of the experience altogether.
Making cash on web video may never work. The media companies just don't want to admit it.
Is it the thrill of victory to hear the sound of one hand clapping?
Advertisers who paid big bucks for Olympics sponsorships are wondering the same thing. According to the WallStreet Journal, companies are angry that access to the Olympic Green, which is the main focal point of most games, has been "strictly limited" to people with hard-to-get tickets to the venues.
"A small line of people stood outside the The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) exhibit, where dry ice and the sound of gurgling soda pop drifted out," the paper said. "Meanwhile, a giant restaurant erected by McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD) at the end of the Green has been far from packed."
This, of course, could be a huge disaster for the International Olympic Committee, which counts on corporate funding to fund the games. This could also hurt television advertising by General Electric Company (NYSE: GE)'s NBC Universal division, because televised shots of half-empty stadiums may make whatever sporting event they are showing seem lame.
Overall, though, the games are attracting huge audiences worldwide because of compelling stories such as swimmer Michael Phelps' quest for Olympic immortality. It will be interesting to see if the viewership trails off once the swimming competition ends.
Advertisers are going to take note of this for when the IOC comes calling for the London games in 2012.
According to The Wall Street Journal, "More viewers tuned in to watch the first two prime-time Olympics telecasts on General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE)'s NBC network than any summer Games in a decade -- even as the Games received record attention on the Internet."
My wife has offered a plausible theory about this performance: people are curious about China and are watching the Olympics because they can not afford other forms of entertainment because of high gas prices. I'm willing to give swimmer Michael Phelps his due as well. Plus, the only other sport competing for the viewer's attention is baseball. Pro football training camps are in full swing as well. The Olympics would be crushed if they occurred during football season or during "American Idol." Americans do have their priorities.
Friday's opening night ceremony attracted 34,2 million viewers, up 35% from the last summer games, according to the paper. I feel bad I missed it because it seems to have been very cool.
Keep in mind that General Electric still may face a tough slog in recouping its $894 million investment in the U.S. broadcast rights. Make goods, free commercial time, are still a possibility if the ratings go south.
The company's Olympic dreams, though, will do little to help the company's suffering shareholders which raises the question of why GE still owns NBC Universal.
Maybe a good Olympics will encourage Chief Executive Jeff Immelt to sell or spin-off the media business which is totally unrelated to the rest of the conglomerate.
Will General Electric Company (NYSE: GE)'s NBC Universal experience the "thrill of victory" or the "agony of defeat" from the Summer Olympics in China? Odds are fairly good that the multimedia extravaganza may not be that thrilling to GE's bottom line.
Yesterday, the under-performing conglomerate announced that it had sold $1 billion in advertising for the games.
"We've always said that the Olympics is one of the most powerful properties in all of television," said Seth Winter, Senior Vice President Sales & Marketing NBC Sports & Olympics, said in a press release. "While we are thrilled with this milestone, we still expect to write more business as the Games begin and great stories continue to evolve."
Of course, such gushing is to be expected from an ad sales guy. But one thing that often gets forgotten when people write about television advertising is that commercial time is sold based on the network guaranteeing that a certain number of viewers will watch the show. If the audience does not materialize, the network has to give what's known as a make-good: usually free commercials on another show. The viewer numbers NBC has to hit are a closely guarded secret.
"For the next two-and-a-half weeks, almost all you'll hear in the news will be related to the 29th Olympiad in Beijing," points out Brandon Clay, who focuses on a China ETF as his latest investment idea.
In his All Star Investor newsletter, he explains, "Beyond this, in 2010, we will see the World Expo in Shanghai and the Asian Games in Guangzhou." So is now a good time to invest in China? Here's the advisor's assessment and his top pick for exposure to the region.
"China has been gearing up for the Games for the past few years. Finally, with a dozen new sports stadiums and a cross-city underground railway to ferry visitors to different venues, China will be on display to the world.
"If you've been investing internationally, you're no stranger to China. Depending on when you bought, you may either love it or hate it. For instance, in 2007 Chinese stocks rocketed up the charts 97%.
"In 2006, the gains were even more impressive at 130%! But it hasn't been all fun and games in the past two years. China peaked at the same time U.S. stocks in October 2007.
With this year's summer Olympics just around the corner, athletic outfitter Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) unveiled its new Olympic products yesterday.
While Nike has never really embraced the concept of being a sponsor for the Olympics, it prides itself on being an outfitter for the competing athletes. This year there will be thousands of Olympic hopefuls from over a hundred companies that will be sporting the famous "Nike Swoosh" on themselves for millions of watchers to see.
Nike will definitely leave its own footprint all over this summer's Olympic games. For the first time ever, BMX will be an Olympic medal sport, and the new Nike gear for the sport is being heralded by Nike's global director for action sports, John Martin, as the "illest BMX product ever." I honestly thought the word "illest" vanished from the vocabulary around the same time as Run-DMC; guess I was wrong. But I will definitely look forward to seeing the "illest" BMX gear ever, Nike definitely got my attention on that one!
General Electric (NYSE: GE) is still trying to convince investors that it can offset slow growth and some weak divisional results by doing well in emerging markets. So far, the stock market has not bought in.
The market has actually been hostile to the message. GE shares are just above $34, which is not far from their 52-week low and down considerably from their high of $42.15. Over time, earnings from regions like India and China may help the stock, but the company is going to have to push harder to mark its case. It will use the Olympics in Beijing as a spring-board.
"We want to humanize G.E. even as we show worldwide investors that G.E. is a major player in the world," said Don Schneider, executive creative director at BBDO New York, the Omnicom (NYSE: OMC) unit that is G.E.'s longtime advertising agency, told the The New York Times
GE is a major player in the world but the politics in countries such as China may not make growth there as easy as investors would hope. A global recession could also slow infrastructure building in Asia and the India sub-continent.
To some extent, the large marketing budget for this Olympics is a waste of money. Wall Street wants to know that GE is willing to deal with its slow-growing medical and industrial units either by selling them or cutting costs. Tickets to the Olympics won't help.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Priceline (NASDAQ: PCLN)'s unbelievable quarter, which saw the company best earnings estimates by $0.12, may mean that investors pay attention to CTRIP.com (NASDAQ: CTRP) numbers due out next week. While numbers were up across the board international bookings surged.
Priceline's gross bookings growth momentum continued in the fourth quarter with international growth accelerating to 113.0% year-over-year and the domestic growth rate increasing sequentially to 24.2% led by increasing retail airline ticket bookings," said Jeffery H. Boyd, Priceline's President and Chief Executive Officer. "Internationally, we believe that our wide geographic reach, new market initiatives and extensive inventory are providing sustained impetus for growth. We believe that in the United States, our value positioning and brand promotion through offline and online channels is driving above-category growth rates in an uncertain economic environment.
CTRIP.com is the Chinese equivalent of Priceline. The company has also seen earnings grow nicely, and with a growing Chinese middle class, leisure activities are becoming more and more in demand. Throw in the Olympics this summer, and CTRIP may very well benefit from all this as it is the leader in bookings fields in China. With the stock beaten down, investors may want to take a closer look at this interesting Chinese travel play.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer has no position in any stock mentioned as of 2/18/08.
The 2008 Olympics will prove to be a profitable endeavor for lots of companies. We've spoken previously about ClickSoftware (NASDAQ: CKSW), a niche software player with workforce management solutions to manage service networks. (To learn more about the firm, read this article.)
So, how do you effectively manage a temporary but highly critical workforce for an extremely large, extremely high-profile public event?
One answer is by striking a deal with CKSW, which is exactly what's happened. ClickSoftware announced today that the firm has landed a deal via its Chinese reseller to "manage the field activities of hundreds of telecommunication technicians during the 2008 Olympic Summer Games in China."
After investors were disappointed with last quarter's earnings, this may be the win ClickSoftware's been looking for on the way to gold.
Zack Miller is the Managing Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund. Author does not own CKSW.
Could there be any worse fate for an Olympic level athlete than to be stripped of their statistics and medals? Yes, there could be worse things. Just ask former Olympic track star Marion Jones which is worse, losing your medals or being forced to tell your mother you have to sell her house.
Are these professional quality athletes really so stupid as to believe that if they get pinched for using banned performance enhancing drugs they'll get away with just a slap on the wrist? I don't think it's that simple. I'm sure that Marion Jones knew what she was doing was seriously wrong and I feel certain that she knew if she got busted, the truth would come with a very high price. Now, amid all the investigations and scandal, she's finding out just how high priced skirting the truth can really be.
For her misdeeds, Marion Jones has been required to forfeit all five of her medals from the 2000 summer Olympics and has been told to repay approximately $700,000 of her prize money. All of her standings and statistics beginning at September 1, 2000, shall be red-lined in the record books and her medals from other competitions have been taken away also.
While United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) is preparing for the busiest time of the year, high costs and a slowing economy are set to present big challenges for the Atlanta company once the holiday season is over, the Wall Street Journal reported.
OTHER PAPERS:
BusinessWeek's "Inside Wall Street" column reported that shares of Abiomed Inc (NASDAQ: ABMD) have recovered nearly to its 52-week high of $15, rallying on buzz that the FDA could approve the company's chief product, Impella, a miniature pump at the end of a catheter, within 12 months.
The "Inside Wall Street" column also reported that Focus Media Holding Limited (NASDAQ: FMCN), the top advertising company in Internet, Mobile and Poster/Panel Markets, should benefit from the 2008 Summer Olympics.
WEB SITES:
According to sources and reported by AppleInsider, there have been additional sightings of an "unfamiliar MacBook model floating around" Apple Inc's (NASDAQ: AAPL) campus perhaps indicating a new Macbook is coming at next month's Macworld Expo.
I'm sure there will be millions of people watching and participating in the 2008 Olympics set to take place in Beijing, China. That got me thinking: everyone knows that the Chinese investment giant is just beginning to wake. Yes, things are frothy now and growth is almost never linear. There will be bumps along the way as China grows and some people will make a mint, while others lose their shirts.
I'm looking to make a mint. So, how to play China into 2008? I came up with two stocks to help vault investors into the 2008 Olympics.
Ctrip.com (NASDAQ: CTRP): China's leading online travel services provider, Ctrip is probably the most engaging pure play on the Chinese internet making a run at the traditional economy. With 57% marketshare, this company is poised to be the leader in any consolidation that occurs in the online travel space. Bear Stearns' analysts expect Ctrip to grow its revenues at an average of 40% over the next three years based upon:
China online travel accounting for <1% of the total travel market in 2006
The Olympics will naturally act as a showcase for inbound tourism into China
Rising GDP and income levels should contribute to growing demand for both business and leisure travel
The Chinese government is mandating a transition to e-ticketing
As Brent Archer recently wrote, Eastman Kodak (NYSE: EK) has been one of the most visible sponsors of the Olympic games for years, but it's a partnership that's coming to an end. After the Beijing games in 2008, Kodak will no longer pay the $50 million plus per Olympiad to be the official film and imaging sponsor.
Shares of Kodak have been terrible performers over the past decade as the company faces increased competition in the digital age. The Street appears to approve of dropping the Olympics, and the stock was up more than 5% on the news.
And maybe it is a sensible cost-cutting move -- cost-cutting moves nearly always send a company's share price up. Movie Gallery (NASDAQ: MOVI) soared last month after the rental-chain announced it was closing 13% of its stores, only to tank when bankruptcy rumors emerged on Friday.
Eastman Kodak Co. (NYSE: EK) announced this morning that it will end its Olympic sponsorship following the 2008 Summer Games in Beijing, as they reassess their marketing and attempt to move in a new direction. EK is moving significantly higher today on this news and not much else, so it looks like investors are happy with this move. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on EK.
After hitting a one-year high of $30.20 in June, the stock has up and down sharply within a $2-dollar range over the past three months. EK opened this morning at $27.24. So far today the stock has hit a low of $27.18 and a high of $28.44. As of 10:45, EK is trading at $28.20, up $1.16 (4.3%). The chart for EK looks neutral but improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a November bull-put credit spread below the $25 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 13.6% return in just 5 weeks as long as EK is above $25 at November expiration. Kodak would have to fall by more than 11% before we would start to lose money.
EK hasn't been below $25 since June and has shown support around $27 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on 11/1) disappoint, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by strong support between $25 and $27, where EK has bottomed throughout the past three months. Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.