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Analyst calls: RTP, INTC, VIA.B, TEF, BRCD, JBL, ERIC, CEPH ...

Analyst upgrades:
  • Citigroup upgraded shares of Ball (NYSE: BLL) to Buy from Hold and raised its target to $45 from $41 as they believe recent capacity closures will be positive for beverage can operating rates.
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) to Buy from Hold on valuation and the company's plans to preserve cash.
  • ThinkPanmure upgraded Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) to Accumulate from Sell and raised its target to $17 from $12 citing trough earnings in 2009 and lowered expectations.
  • Viacom B (NYSE: VIA.B) was added to Goldman's Conviction Buy List.
  • Telefonica (NYSE: TEF) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
  • Onyx Pharma (NASDAQ: ONXX) was raised to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
Analyst downgrades:

Continue reading Analyst calls: RTP, INTC, VIA.B, TEF, BRCD, JBL, ERIC, CEPH ...

Options Update: Intermune volatility elevated into January results (ITMN, ONXX, OSIP)

Intermune (NASDAQ: ITMN) closed at $13.41. ITMN-191/R7128 combination data in January 2009. ITMN's Pirfenidone (inhibits collagen synthesis) data is expected in Q1 of 2009. Robert Baird has a Neutral rating on ITMN. ITMN January option implied volatility is at 189; April is at 175; above its 26-week average of 136 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Onyx Pharma (NASDAQ: ONXX), a developer of cancer therapies, closed at $30.09. ONXX was raised to Overweight verses Neutral at JPMorgan. ONXX January option implied volatility of 76 is above its 26-week average of 69 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

OSI Pharma (NASDAQ: OSIP), a developer of cancer therapies, closed at $33.16. OSIP January option implied volatility is at 78, July is at 60. OSIP average option implied volatility over the last 26-weeks is 67 according to Track Data, suggesting larger near term risk with less outer month risk.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Can cancer drugs help pharma sales?

Almost everyone these days has encountered cancer in one way or another. While the rate of cancer incidence has stabilized to declined since the early 1990s and, with newer and better treatments as well as early detection, cancer death rates have also declined, the war on cancer is still far from won.

It is no surprise, then, that a few days ago, IMS Health (NYSE: RX) -- a provider of market intelligence to the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries -- said that cancer drugs sales will nearly double by the year 2012. Assuming a compound growth rate of 12-15% a year, sales will grow from $48 billion in 2008 to $80 billion by 2012.

The main contributors to growth, according to the study, are an increasing number of patients on chemotherapy, not just in major markets but in emerging markets, too, as well as longer treatment periods for growing numbers of patients. Also fueling growth are the increased use of targeted therapeutic agents, along with first-time innovations coming to the market. Expensive new biotechnology drugs, and the increasing use of combination therapies that contribute to the exploding cost of treatment will also fuel cancer drugs sales growth.

The overall pharmaceutical market grew at a 6.4% pace in 2007, meaning that with its double-digit growth rate, the cancer drug market -- today contributing 17% to global pharmaceutical sales -- will only represent a greater proportion and emphasis. Of course, there will be factors moderating growth, such as drugs losing exclusivity and financial constraints of payers.

Cancer-fighting drugs can reach the market twice as fast as the average medicine, and companies can charge as much as $50,000 for a single course of treatment. It is no surprise then that with more and more drugs coming off patent many pharma companies are turning their attention to cancer. But can it save them?

Continue reading Can cancer drugs help pharma sales?

'Hot' stocks: From the leader board to the doghouse

Investors frequently like to chase "hot stocks." While not based on fundamentals, momentum investing does sometimes work as stocks that are "working today" frequently "work tomorrow" as well.

So, as 2008 is 1/6th done, it's time to look back at the highfliers from 2007 and see where they're trading today. As usual, the analysts at Bespoke Investment Group have some good data and charts for us.

In a post, titled "How the Best Have Done," Bespoke analyzes the best performing U.S. stocks of 2007 and tracks them into 2008. The results:

While some solar stocks are down big in 2008 after a huge run-up in 2007, the big winners are heavily concentrated in materials, agriculture, and energy. BPZ Resources Inc. (AMEX: BZP) is the stock on the list that has done the best in 2008 -- rising another 44% so far this year.

Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.

Option update: Onyx Pharma volatility elevated into 20% pre-open sell off

Onyx Pharma (NASDAQ: ONXX) is recently is down $9.23 to $35.70 in pre-open trading.

ONXX and its partner Bayer halted Phase 3 trials of Nexavar and after the company reported a larger than expected Q4 loss.

ONXX overall option implied volatility of 63 is above its 26-week average of 57 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Onyx Pharmaceuticals is finding new ways to treat cancer

The market's continued choppiness/consolidating pattern does not mean there aren't growth stocks out there for high-risk investors, and Onyx Pharmaceuticals is one pharmaceutical company that fits the bill.

Onyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: ONXX) specializes in small molecule technology, a new, promising method that blocks cancer-causing mechanisms in the human body. In collaboration with Bayer Pharmaceuticals, the company develops and markets compounds that inhibit the function, or modulate the activity of the RAS signaling pathway to treat cancer and other diseases.

Analysts believe ONXX's cancer drug Nexaver as a treatment for advanced kidney cancer could be a big winner, with the company gaining FDA approval for the drug in 2005. ONXX is also testing the drug as a possible treatment for other kinds of cancer (liver, skin, and lung cancer). The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for ONXX are -$0.52 to $0.97.

Continue reading Onyx Pharmaceuticals is finding new ways to treat cancer

Option update: Onyx Pharma volatility elevated with rally

Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NYSE: ONXX), a developer of cancer therapies, were up $2.40 to $51.75 in pre-open trading. ONXX released Q3 Nexavar sales of $105 million, beating Street expectations. Wachovia says, "With the ONXX/Bayer Nexavar joint venture touching profitability two quarters earlier than anticipated, we believe Street expectations for a Bayer acquisition of ONXX." ONXX has projected the next key clinical event will be in the 2nd half of 2008 for Phase 3 non-small cell lung cancer. ONXX over all option implied volatility of 58 is near its 26-week average of 55 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

[Update: ONXX shares were recently (12:05 p.m.) up $9.02, or 18.28% to $58.37.]

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

IPO & secondary preview -- Week of June 18, 2007

Wall Street's equity market offers a modest plate this week, with three IPOs and four Secondaries on the docket.

Those deals tentatively scheduled to price include:

IPOs:

Tuesday

  • Aldabra 2 Acquisition (ALL.U), a 30M-share IPO for this business finance company. Lazard is the lead manager. Filing price: $10.00
  • Sterlite Industries (SLT), a 125M-share IPO for this India-based metals company. Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup are the lead managers. Filing price: $13.85.

Thursday

  • Care Investment Trust (CRE), an 18.75M-share IPO for this business finance company. Credit Suisse and Merrill Lynch are the lead managers. Filing range: $15.00-$17.00.

Continue reading IPO & secondary preview -- Week of June 18, 2007

Cramer's ASCO biotech picks, and how to handle Apple

On today's Stop Trading segment on CNBC, Jim Cramer said he was shocked that Revlimid from Celgene Corp. (NASDAQ: CELG) was hardly noticed and he thinks it's ready to run here. This down move in Celgene is a mistake according to him. He's sticking with his Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ONXX) after they gave positive data at the American Society of Clinical Onclogy ("ASCO") after the company extended the life of liver cancer patients.

Earlier today, Cramer followed up with more details on his Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) strategy as far as how much to sell and why. This is after some had further questions because of the stock being noted in Thursday's "Sell Block" on Mad Money.

My own take on these biotechs is that he's probably sticking with some of these names for too long, although time will be the real judge. Celgene has a P/E ratio north of 200 and is already worth more than $23 Billion in market cap. Onyx is one that is now at new 52-week highs and the reason it hasn't seen the "Post-ASCO" news sale is because some still feel that this could be acquired even though this one is up more than 200% from its 52-week lows. We'll see how this pans out.

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Analyst upgrades 6-4-07: Wal-Mart's quad upgrade, MOT, SIRI

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The cable and satellite sector, Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) and Motorola (MOT) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Credit Suisse upgraded the cable and satellite sector to Market Weight based on cable's solid long-term strategic position, attractive valuations and expectations that new industry that new industry consolidation will continue. Additionally, the firm upgraded Mediacom Communications Corp (NASDAQ: MCCC) to Outperform from Market Perform and Charter Communications (NASDAQ: CHTR) to Outperform from Underperform.
  • Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan, as the firm believes the company has reached an inflection point following the company's plans to cut capital expenditure by around $2.5B and return $15B to shareholders through a buyback program. Wachovia upgraded shares of Wal-Mart to Outperform from Market Perform citing management's plans to slow U.S. store growth, reduce cap-ex and increase share buybacks. Morgan Stanley upgraded Wal-Mart to Overweight from Equal Weight and to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC.
  • Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) was upgraded to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC World Markets to reflect optimism on the company's product portfolio and margin progress. They believe the company's focus on margins and not share should lead to a higher long-term margin model.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Genentech ... no longer cuts it at ASCO

Genentech (NYSE: DNA) is perhaps losing some of its old luster to a newer and fresher group of emerging biotechs. The American Society of Clinical Oncology, or "ASCO," is in the midst of its annual meeting in Chicago, the conference that historically has offered make or break news for many a cancer-focused biotech. In previous years, Genentech saw its stock get huge a boost from all of the possibilities of Avastin as an indicated treatment for multiple forms of cancer.

This weekend, Genentech announced results of Phase III study for Avastin Plus Interferon therapy, showing it nearly doubled the median survival in patients with previously Untreated advanced kidney cancer. The company also released more of its pipeline that looks like a post-Avastin world.

Unfortunately, the data coming out of these is not good enough to fuel share buying so far. Shares are indicated down 0.7% at $78.97 in pre-market trading (8:55 a.m.) Monday. While this may change later, Genetech's parent, Roche (LSE: ROG), saw its shares fall 1.9% in London.

Avastin has been a great drug for Genentech and for cancer patients alike, but seeing as that Genentech shares have been dead money for 18-months and with the company sporting an $83 billion market cap, investors are left holding the "what's next?" bag.

Shares of Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ONXX) are up 6.7% in pre-market trading (9:23 a.m.) and Celgene Corp. (NASDAQ: CELG) shares are trading up over 1.5% on positive data at the ASCO conference.

Jon Ogg is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Daily Option Update - February 13, 2007

Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX up 1.17 to 10.44.

Applied Materials Inc.-(NASDAQ:AMAT) option prices suggests risk levels below average into EPS.

Applied Materials is expected to report EPS of .27 cents tonight after the close. Stifel Nicolaus has a buy rating with a $23 price target on Applied Materials. AMAT February straddle is priced at .85 above its theoretical value of .47 cents. Applied Materials March option implied volatility of 32 is near its 26-week average of 30 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Nvidia Corporation -(NASDAQ:NVDA) option prices suggests risk levels are flat into EPS & Outlook

Nvidia, a designer, developer and marketer of graphic processing units, is expected to report EPS of .42 cents tonight. American Technology Research says "Nvidia is very well positioned entering in 2007 given its favorable exposure to the PC segment entering a large upgrade cycle, favorable exposure to the gaming segment with PS3 ready to ship high volume, and increasing share in the consumer mobile segment." Nvidia February straddle is priced at $2.15, above its theoretical value of 41.49. NVDA March option implied volatility of 45 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting reduced risk levels after EPS.

Option volume leaders today were: Alcoa (NYSE:AA), Nasdaq (NASDAQ:NDAQ), AK Steel (NYSE:AKS), RadioShack Corp. (NYSE:RSH), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and Onyx Pharma (NASDAQ:ONXX).

Analyst downgrades 2-13-07: Ford, Circuit City and Alcoa downgraded today

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Hydril Corp (HYDL), Circuit City Stores (CC) and Ford Motor Corp (F) topped today's list of most notable downgrades:
  • Following the acquisition by Tenaris SA ADS (NYSE: TS), Hydril Corp (HASDAQ: HYDL) was downgraded by Lehman Brothers to Underweight from Overweight, to Peer Perform from Outperform at Bear Stearns and to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan.
  • Circuit City Stores (NYSE: CC) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy on valuation at Goldman Sachs.
  • Merrill Lynch downgraded Ford Motor Corp (NYSE: F) to Sell from Neutral citing the recent strength of its shares.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Alcoa Inc (NYSE: AA) was taken down to Hold from Buy on valuation.
  • Multi-Fineline Electronix Inc (NASDAQ: MFLX) was downgraded to Strong Sell from Strong Buy at Matrix USA, as the firm believes strong competition is eroding sales growth.
  • Hansen Natural Corp (NASDAQ: HANS) was downgraded by both Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan to Neutral from Buy on valuation.
  • Citigroup cut Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc (NYSE: CCE) to Hold from Buy citing the difficult CSD environment, especially relative to Buy-rated Pepsi Bottling Group (NYSE: PBG). The firm considers Pepsi Bottling to be better-positioned than Coca-Cola Enterprises.
  • Freidman Billings downgraded Onyx Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ONXX) to Underperform from Market Perform on valuation.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Cramer notes WMG as the worst earnings report

On today's STOP TRADING! segment on CNBC, Jim Cramer noted Onyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ONXX) is going up on hopes Bayer AG (ADR) (NYSE:BAY) will buy it after the great cancer news. The Home Depot's (NYSE:HD) strategy was working, but Nardelli bought at the peak and now it wants to sell the business off at the lows. Cramer said he prefers Lowe's (NYSE:LOW). The worst earnings report he has seen is Warner Music Group Corp. (NYSE:WMG) and Cramer said he doesn't think it realizes it's a public company. The residual value of the business is shrinking as it speaks. WMG was at a new 52-week low today. Cramer thinks Nokia Corporation (ADR) (NYSE:NOK) is a low-risk way to play 3G growth.

Analyst downgrades 12-4-06: Pfizer's quad downgrade

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Nokia (NOK) and Pfizer (PFE) topped today's list of downgrades.

  • Prudential downgraded Nokia Corporation (NYSE:NOK) to Neutral from Overweight to reflect what they believe will be a slowing of the handset market in 2007, as well as the company's pending legal battle with Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM).
  • Following the unexpected halt of Torcetrapib, Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) was downgraded by a multitude of companies: At Lehman, to Underweight from Overweight; at JP Morgan, to Neural from Overweight; at Merrill Lynch, to Neutral from Buy; and at Morgan Stanley, to Equal Weight from Overweight.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

  • Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:ONXX) was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Prudential following the failure of their Phase III melanoma trial.
  • Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE:ALU) was downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Markets; the firm expects limited near-term revenue momentum from integration risks and internal/external uncertainties.
  • ThinkEquity downgraded Novellus Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:NVLS) to Accumulate from Buy, as they believe Novellus is no longer deeply undervalued and only expects a gradual margin expansion from here.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 03:40 AM

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