Airlines globally could lose $6.1 billion in 2008, on soaring oil prices and financial market dislocation, the head of the International Air Transport Association said, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday (subscription required).

Giovanni Bisignani, managing director of the IATA, which represents 230 airlines, called the sector "a fragile industry in a crisis" and that it's "bracing for more situations of airlines collapsing," due to high fuel prices and lower revenue, The Journal reported. Further, the air travel slowdown, once thought to be contained to developed nations, has spread to global air travel's plum: Asia, he added.

Airline slowdown could hurt Boeing, Airbus

Stock analyst and frequent flier C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Thursday if the Asian hemisphere is slowing, to go along with sluggish revenue statistics in Europe and the United States, the slowdown "would have wide implications, not just for airlines, but for airplane manufacturers Boeing and Airbus."

"Further consolidation globally, was a given, particularly in nations like India, which had too many airlines even before the global economy slowed, but the concern now is that national carriers will postpone or cancel plane orders," Bauer said. "From a U.S. perspective, that could mean bad news for Boeing. And what's bad news for Boeing is bad news for the U.S economy. Airplane sales have been one of the U.S. economy's few bright spots." [Bauer added that he does not own shares in or have a rating on any airline or airplane manufacturer. However, Bauer does have frequent flier miles/points in American Airlines (NYSE: AMR).]

Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) is said to be seriously considering a merger with either Northwest Airlines or United Airline's parent UAL Corp, people close to the matter say, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday.

According to the Journal, Delta is expected to give CEO Richard Anderson permission to pursue formal mergers talks with both Northwest and United, a source with knowledge of the matter said.

Delta shares were down 7 cents to $15.91, while Northwest (NYSE: NWS) declined 22 cents to $15.63, and United (NYSE: UAUA) fell 59 cents to $31.60 amid a broad market sell-off Friday afternoon.

Too many carriers

Many sector analysts believe the U.S. market has too many carriers, and could benefit from two or even three mergers or takeovers. American Airlines (NYSE: AMR) is the largest carrier by traffic, followed by United, Delta, Continental (NYSE: CAL) and Northwest.

Germany-based Lufthansa's announcement late Thursday that it would buy a 19% stake in JetBlue (NASDAQ: JBLU) could lead to other airline deals, as industry players seek both economies of scale and greater international reach, according to one analyst familiar with the sector. The Lufthansa-JetBlue deal requires the approval of U.S. federal regulators.

"This could be the deal that gets the airs [airlines] in merger-mode again," analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks on Thursday.

Under U.S. law, no foreign airline can own more than 25% of a U.S. airline, and there are other restrictions that limit the foreign company's influence.

Lufthansa announced Thursday it would pay $7.27 per share for 42 million new JBLU shares, or about $300 million. That amounts to a 19% stake at Thursday's closing price, the airlines said in a joint statement Thursday. Lufthansa will also receive a seat on JetBlue's board.

Improved sector conditions

Bauer said three factors had reduced merger and acquisition talk among the airlines for several years: sub-par sector cash flow, better merger/acquisition and partnership opportunities in other sectors, and regulation.

"For the longest time, U.S. airlines were not that attractive, particularly the weaker ones, but now cash flow has improved, the sector's growth prospects are adequate and the new 'open skies' rule will mean more competition across the Atlantic, so airlines have to be ready," Bauer said. "An airline could suddenly find itself vulnerable in a previously light-competition market, so they need to be ready to partner, or to merge or buy an airline for access to new markets."

Under the "open skies" agreement, a slow deregulation of flight routes and markets between the United States and the European Union will begin in April 2008.

"The last thing a major carrier in the United States or Europe wants, for that matter, is to wake up one day and find that your market has been penetrated, and you don't have comparable positions in some of those open skies markets," Bauer said.

For the first nine months of 2007, Lufthansa reported earnings of $2.33 billion, or 1.60 billion euros, and revenue of $23.9 billion, or 16.4 billion euros.