• Despite the deleveraging process many companies have undertaken, on an EBITDA/Debt ratio junk rated companies are as leveraged as they have ever been thanks to the "complete trashing" of cash flows. MS expects leverage ratios to rise even further and, therefore, from a "leverage-risk to yield" basis, junk spreads are way too tight to reward buyers for the underlying default risk.
• In the residential Option ARMs market, delinquency rates as a percentage of original balances are running higher than they were in subprime. On the other side of the ledger - and confirming what is intuitively logical - recoveries as a percentage of balances are significantly lower and falling, which will continue to put heavy pressure on home values. In the Alt-A market things are not going that well either.
• In the Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) world, Standard & Poor recently implemented new tests to determine the downgrade of various CMBS vintages. The test for the 2004 issues was relaxed, which is likely to spare from downgrade 65% of AAA rated CMBS which had been put on negative watch. Under the prior, stricter test, 80% of the watch list issues were in danger of downgrades. Are we really to believe that the relaxation of the testing standards for issues that are coming up for refi between now and the next two years are just a coincidence?
• What caritas the S & P showed toward the 2004 CMBS it apparently took it out on the mezzanine CMBS of 2006 and later. Most AAA mezz tranches are or will be downgraded to A/BBB- grades, while all junior AAAs tranches have gone straight to junk.

Corporate bond market rally originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 13 Jul 2009 14:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Subprime mortgage defaults peaked and will slowly begin to slide during the next two years.

But don't get excited -- option ARMs and ALT-A mortgages are now beginning to rise at a very rapid rate. According to analysts I follow, notably Ivy Zelman, the next tsunami will be larger than the one we just went through.

And the banks are not currently valuing these mortgages as if they will default at this rate.

Be sure to read all 7 reasons the stock market isn't going up any time soon.

Michael Shulman is a contributor to OptionsZone.com.

Seven reasons the market is not going up any time soon: #2 The next mortgage tsunami originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 26 Jan 2009 11:33:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

These mortgages start with a teaser rate well below the market rate and then allow payments that don't even cover all the interest charges. Of course, no principal is paid either. Instead the unpaid interest is added to the principal of the loan - hence my nickname the upside-down mortgage. It's much like an upside-down car loan. Your mortgage principal quickly becomes higher than the price at which you can sell your home. During the meteoric rise in house prices when the housing bubble was inflating, this was no big deal. But now that housing prices are dropping, many people will be stuck with mortgage principals higher than the market value of their home and they won't be able to refinance when the loan resets to market rates. They also won't be able to sell their home without coming up with cash at closing.

You've probably seen this type of loan advertised on TV or the Internet where the consumer is promised a ridiculously low payment of $300 or $500 a month on a $200,000 mortgage loan. Or when the lender says borrowers can pick their payments each month. Yes, they're giving borrowers options, but none of them are financially sound -- except for the immediate satisfaction of a low loan payment for a couple of years. These are a sure road to financial disaster. I wonder why it's taken so long for someone to notice?

Lita Epstein has written more than 20 books including "The 250 Questions You Should Ask to Avoid Foreclosure" and the "Complete idiot's Guide to Improving Your Credit Score" due out in December.

Prime mortgage option ARMs showing signs of trouble originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 24 Oct 2007 10:34:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.