option posts
FeedPosted Nov 30th 2007 11:50AM by Brent Archer (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major Movement, Good news, Industry, Options, Technical Analysis, , Federal Reserve
Bear Stearns Companies, Inc. (NYSE:
BSC) shares are trading higher today with the rest of Wall Street after Fed Chairman
Ben Bernanke hinted that further interest rate cuts may come in December, fueling growing speculation among investors. Bernanke said yesterday in a speech that the Fed would be "exceptionally alert and flexible" if the housing slump and high energy prices continue to cause "headwinds" for consumers, echoing comments made by Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn earlier in the week. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on BSC.
After hitting a one-year high of $172.61 in January, the stock hit a one-year low of $89.55 last week. BSC opened this morning at $103.01. So far today the stock has hit a low of $101.36 and a high of $104.50. As of 10:45, BSC is trading at $101.79, up $3.15 (3.2%). The chart for BSC looks
bearish (heh) and steady, while
S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December
bull-put credit spread below the $85 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in just 3 weeks as long as BSC is above $85 at December expiration. Bear would have to fall by more than 15% before we would start to lose money.
BSC hasn't been below $89 at all in the past year and has shown support around $92 recently. This trade could be risky if the credit crunch continues, but recent signs are pointing toward a potential end to the really bad news.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in BSC.Posted Jun 14th 2007 2:15PM by Brent Archer (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major Movement, Analyst Reports, Bad News, Industry, Symantec Corp (SYMC), Options, Technical Analysis
Symantec Corp. (NASDAQ:
SYMC) opened at $20.09. So far today the stock has hit a low of $19.40 and a high of $20.10. As of 1 p.m., SYMC is trading at 19.48, down 0.53 (-2.65%).
After hitting a one year high of $22.19 in October, the stock has recently struggled against resistance at $20. Though the company
announced a $2 billion buyback plan today, analysts remain skeptical. A Morgan Stanley analyst says he sees
little upside for SYMC, and an RBC analyst stated that rival
McAfee (NYSE:
MFE) continues to
take away market share from SYMC. Recent technical indicators have been bullish with slight deterioration, while
S&P gives SYMC a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October
bear-call credit spread above the $22.50 range. SYMC hasn't been above 22.50 at all in the past year and has shown resistance around $21.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. Do you have any deadwood in your portfolio? Check out the 18 Warning Signs That Tell You When To Dump A Stock.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, he neither owns nor controls positions in SYMC or MFE.Posted Jun 11th 2007 2:25PM by Brent Archer (RSS feed)
Filed under: Deals, , Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI), Options, Technical Analysis
XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:
XMSR) opened at $10.67. So far today the stock has hit a low of $10.62 and a high of $10.90. As of 10:55, XMSR is trading at $10.89, up $0.28 (2.6%).
After hitting a one year high of $17.70 in January, the stock has stumbled down to near its year-lows over the past six months. The FCC issued a public notice Friday seeking
comment from the public on the proposed merger between
Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ:
SIRI) and XM Satellite Radio Holdings. Given that the FCC generally tries to finish its review of mergers within 180 days, this means that there could be a potential decision from the FCC by the end of 2007. Recent technical indicators for XMSR have been neutral and improving, while
S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July
bull-put credit spread below the $10 range. XMSR hasn't been below $10 since October and has shown support around $10.40 recently. This trade could be risky if the Sirius merger gets the ax, but with today's news, that kind of announcement shouldn't happen until well after July expiration.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls a position in XMSR or SIRI.Posted Mar 26th 2007 11:11AM by Paul Foster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Microsoft (MSFT), Apple Inc (AAPL), Oracle Corp (ORCL), Options
The Volatility Index for S&P 500 Options (VIX) is up 1.33 to 14.28.
Option volume leaders today are: Apple Computer (NASDAQ:
AAPL), Tesoro (NYSE:
TSO), Oracle (NASDAQ:
ORCL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:
MSFT).
Dendreon (NASDAQ: DNDN) straddles the expensive rating on heavy volume, suggesting Large Risk. DNDN, a biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of therapeutics that harness the immune system to fight cancer, is recently up $.57 to $5.03. DNDN's lead drug Provenge (for treatment of asymptomatic, metastatic, androgen-independent prostate cancer) has a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) review date on May 15th. DNDN call option volume of 15,831 contracts compares to put volume of 14,850 contracts. The DNDN April 5 straddle is at $3.20 and the May straddle is priced at $4.05, suggesting large price risk.
The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.Posted Mar 16th 2007 11:05AM by Paul Foster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Google (GOOG), Wal-Mart (WMT), Newmont Mining (NEM), Options
Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX down 1.07 to 15.37
Sovereign-SOV call volume- implied volatility spikes on sharp Rally on STD Chatter. SOV, a $90 billion financial institution with nearly 800 community banking offices, is recently up $1.78 to $26.23. STD owns approximately 20% of SOV and is entitled in 2008 to purchase the remainder of the bank for $40 as share. Bank of America say's "we believe the landscape for foreign bank acquisitions of U.S. banks is fairly limited to nine major players." SOV call option volume of 5,695 contracts compares to put volume of 808 contracts. SOV April option implied volatility is at 34 above a level of 28 on 3/13 and above its 26-week average of 26 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.
Wal-Mart Stores-WMT option implied volatility of 20 suggests Flat Risk. WMT is trading up .62 to $46.68. Merrill Lynch upgraded WMT to Buy from Neutral. WMT will be holding an analyst and investor field trip in Canada on 3/21/07. WMT call option volume of 4,484 contracts compares to put volume of 3,624 contracts. WMT April option implied volatility of 20 is near its 26-week average of 20 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price risks.
Option volume leaders today were: Accredited Home Lenders (NYSE-LEND), Newmont Mining (NYSE-NEM) & Google (NASDAQ-GOOG).
Posted Mar 8th 2007 2:15PM by Paul Foster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Microsoft (MSFT), Halliburton (HAL), Altria Group (MO), Monster Worldwide (MNST), Options
The Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX is down 1.64 to 13.60.
Monster Worldwide (NASDAQ: MNST): implied volatility and volume low as MNST rallies on upgrade. MNST is recently up $2.19 to $49.74. MNST has market cap of $6.3 billion. Smith Barney upgraded MNST from Hold to Buy on EPS leverage, robust customer position, potential for share buybacks and positive review of new website. MNST call option volume of 688 contracts compares to put volume of 289 contracts. MNST option implied volatility of 35 is below its 26-week average of 38 according to Track Data, indicating decreasing stock price risk.
Grant Prideco (NYSE: GRP): implied volatility suggests flat risk; rally continues on report. GRP, engaged in drill stem technology development and drill pipe products and services, is recently up $1.95 to $47.16. RBC Capital Markets says, "GRP possible target of Vallourec. GRP jumped 5.6% yesterday due in large part to a story in Challenges magazine citing Vallourec as a suitor. There is a clear industrial fit in the drill pipe and premium connections businesses. However it strikes us as odd that VK would be pursuing an acquisition concurrently with announcing a special dividend." GRP traded 9,482 contracts March 7. GRP call option volume of 2,282 contracts compares to put volume of 844 contracts. GRP April option implied volatility of 40 is near its 26-week average of 42 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risk.
Option volume leaders today were: KBR (NYSE: KBR), Haliburton (NYSE: HAL), Altria (NYSE: MO) & Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT).
The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
Posted Feb 28th 2007 2:40PM by Paul Foster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Apple Inc (AAPL), Options
Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX is down 2.88 to 15.44.
Hospira-(NYSE:HSP) option implied volatility Collapses as HSP rallies on 4Q performance. Hospira, a specialty pharmaceutical and medication delivery company, is recently up $2.94 to $38.84. Bank of America says "4Q EPS beat on strong topline performance." BAMO has a 12-month price target of $42 on HSP and says "company provides 2007 guidance range above consensus." HSP March option implied volatility of 22 is below its 26-week average of 32 and an over all level of 40 from yesterday according to Track Data suggesting decreasing price fluctuations.
IndyMac Bancorp-(NYSE:NDE) April option implied volatility indicates larger Risk. IndyMac Bancorp, the 7th largest savings and loan and the 9th largest mortgage originator in the nation, is recently up .77 cents to $34.26. NDE is trading near a 2-year low on challenging times being faced by the credit-mortgage and housing operating environment. NDE April option implied volatility of 51 is above its 26-week average of 33 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.
Option volume leaders today were: Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), Domtar (NYSE:DTC), Weyerhaeuser (NYSE:WY) & Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL).
Posted Feb 20th 2007 4:00PM by Paul Foster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major Movement, Earnings Reports, Forecasts, Other Issues, Good news, Press Releases, Consumer Experience, Competitive Strategy, Microsoft (MSFT), Apple Inc (AAPL), , Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI), Options
Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX up .20 to 10.22.
XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:XMSR) -- option implied volatility decreases after SIRI merger of equals announced. XM Satellite Radio is recently up $1.70 to $15.67. SIRI and XMSR to combine in $13 billion merger of equals. XMSR shareholders will receive 4.6 SIRI shares for each XMSR share. RBC Capital Markets says "Incremental synergies for XMSR and SIRI should be approximately $7.96/share and $1.73/share. We estimate 50%-75% probability transaction will be completed." XMSR April option implied volatility of 49 has decreased below its 26-week average of 53 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price risks.
Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) -- implied volatility suggested less risk in XMSR deal. Sirius Satellite Radio is recently up .27 to $3.97. SIRI is expected to report EPS on 2/27. Bear Stearns says "The deal would need to gain regulatory approvals to be consummated -- at this point, we have yet to form an opinion on whether the deal would receive these regulatory approvals." SIRI June option implied volatility of 39 is below a level of 47 from last week according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price risks.
Option volume leaders today were: XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:XMSR), Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT).
Posted Feb 8th 2007 3:50PM by Paul Foster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Deals, Good news, Industry, Apple Inc (AAPL), Pfizer (PFE), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Options
Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX up .27 to 10.59.
New Century Financial Corp. NYSE: NEW implied volatility bid up as NEW sells off on restatement. New Century Fin'l, a real estate investment trust, providing mortgage products to borrowers nationwide, is recently down $8.72 to $21.45. New Century Fin'l announced it will have to restate operating results for the first three quarters of 2006. Merrill Lynch downgraded NEW to Sell, Jeffries lowered to Hold & Friedman Billings downgraded NEW to Underperform. NEW March option implied volatility of 69 is above its 26-week average of 42 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.
H&R Block-NYSE:HRB April option implied volatility & put volume elevated on hedging. H&R Block is recently down $.30 to $24.54. Soleil said on 2/7/07 "we rate H&R Block Buy; $29 price target. We believe Block is close to entraining sale of the company (whole or in parts)." H&R Block call option volume of 2,945 contracts compares to put volume of 42,299 contracts. HRB April option implied volatility of 33 is above its 26-week average of 26 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.
Option volume leaders today were: Cisco-(NASDAQ-CSCO), Akamai (NASDAQ: AKAM), Bristol Meyers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) and Apple Computer (NASDAQ: AAPL).
Posted Feb 7th 2007 2:00PM by Paul Foster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Analyst Reports, Industry, Intel (INTC), Market Matters, Broadcom Corp'A' (BRCM), Options
Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX down .38 to 10.27.
Cisco Systems-(NASDAQ:CSCO) option implied volatility decreases; suggesting less risk
Cisco is recently up $1.17 to $28.45 after announcing better than expected financials. American Technology Research reiterated its Buy rating and $36 price target on Cisco because "we believe CSCO is best-positioned to drive converged (voice, data, video, wireless) IP networks." SBSH keeps its neutral rating on CSCO. CSCO call option volume of 100,807 contracts compares to put volume of 29,585 contracts. CSCO March option implied volatility of 24 is below its 26-week average of 28 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price fluctuations.
MasterCard-(NYSE:MA) February option prices bid up into 2/9 EPS & Outlook
MasterCard, a global payment solutions company, will report EPS on 2/9. Merrill Lynch has Neutral rating on MasterCard. MasterCard February straddle is priced at $9.30, above its theoretical value of $5.90 suggesting larger near term risks. MA call option volume of 4,279 contracts compares to put volume of 2,235 contracts. MA March option implied volatility of 40 is near its 26-week average of 38 according to Track Data, indicating non-directional price fluctuations in next six weeks.
Novelis-(NYSE:NVL) option implied volatility increase continues; indicating price risks
NVL, a manufacturer of aluminum rolled products with approximately 12,500 employees, and $8.4 billion in 2005 revenue, is recently up $4 to $40.85. Novelis said on 1/26/07 "it is currently in discussions with various parties that could lead to a potential sale of the company." BMOC Capital says "NVL has good assets, a strong market position and the potential to improve margins in the longer term, which could make it attractive for a strategic buyer." NVL March option implied volatility of 54 is above a level of 45 from yesterday, above a level of 34 from 2/5 and above its 26-week average of 39 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.
Option volume leaders today were: Cisco-CSCO, Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM), Altria (NYSE: MO) and Intel (NASDAQ: INTC).
Posted Jan 26th 2007 5:10PM by Paul Foster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Earnings Reports, Analyst Reports, Forecasts, Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo! (YHOO), Apple Inc (AAPL), eBay (EBAY), General Motors (GM), Nokia Corp. (NOK), Options

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX up 1.19 to 11.16.
Microsoft Corp's. (NASDAQ: MSFT) February option implied volatility collapsed to 19 after record Q2 revenue of $12.54 billion. Microsoft reported Q2 EPS of 26 cents versus consensus estimates of 23 cents. Q2 revenue rose 6%. Microsoft launches Vista, Office 2007 and exchange Server 2007 on 1/30. Goldman Sachs says "good second quarter and stronger growth ahead." Microsoft February option implied volatility of 17 is below its 26-week average of 22 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price risk.
General Motors' (NYSE: GM) implied volatility was low at 34 going into the financial delay on its restatement. General Motors will delay its Q4 and full year earnings report, which was expected to be released next week, to again restate financial results. Citigroup has a $24 price target on General Motors. General Motors' overall option implied volatility of 34 is below its 26-week average of 42, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price fluctuations.
Option volume leaders today were: Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN), Apple Computer (NASDAQ: AAPL), Nokia (NYSE: NOK), Microsoft and eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY).
Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
Posted Jan 25th 2007 3:40PM by Paul Foster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo! (YHOO), Apple Inc (AAPL), eBay (EBAY), Options, Akamai Technologies (AKAM)
Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX up 1.19 to 11.16.
Equity Office Properties Trust's (NYSE: EOP) volatility is at 15 into Blackstone raising bid to $54 cash. Equity Office Properties is recently trading at $54.66, suggesting a higher bid is expected from other groups. Equity Office Prop announced it has amended its merger agreement entered on 11/19/06 with Blackstone Group. Blackstone will acquire all of Equity Office Prop common stock for $54 a share in cash. A group led by Vornado Realty Trust (NYSE:VNO) had bid $52. Equity Office Properties' overall option implied volatility of 15 is near its 2-month average, according to Track Data.
Akamai Technologies' (NASDAQ: AKAM) February option implied volatility flat is at 50. Akamai will report EPS on 2/7/07. Akamai, a leading global service provider for accelerating content and business processes online, recently traded at $53.47. Deutsche Bank has a $59 price target on Akamai . Alex Brown said, "We expect Akamai to deliver a strong 4Q with potential upside to our estimates on strong internet retail sales during the holiday season." Akamai's February option implied volatility of 50 is near its 26-week average, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price fluctuations.
Option volume leaders today were: Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), Apple, Inc.(NASDAQ: AAPL), US Steel (NYSE: X), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) and eBay, Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY).
Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Options Specialist Paul Foster of Theflyonthewall.com.
Posted Jan 24th 2007 4:20PM by Paul Foster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Google (GOOG), Apple Inc (AAPL), eBay (EBAY), Advanced Micro Dev (AMD), QUALCOMM Inc (QCOM), Options
Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX down .32 to 10.02.
eBAY, Inc.-(NASDAQ:EBAY) option volume & implied volatility elevated at 52 into EPS
eBAY, an operator of a global online trading marketplace including an electronic payment platform PayPal, is expected to report EPS of .28 cents after the close. EBAY will implement fee changes-increase on 1/30/07. EBAY February option implied volatility of 52 is above its 26-week average of 40 according to Track Data, indicating larger risks.
Corning Inc. (NYSE:GLW) option volume heavy, implied volatility decreases as GLW rallies on EPS
Corning reported 4th quarter EPS of .31 cents verses consensus estimates of .28 cents. Corning is recently up $2.00 to $20.84. Buckingham has a $34 price target on Corning. Corning call option volume of 46,801 contracts compares to put volume of 16,919 contracts according to Track Data. Corning February option implied volatility of 31 is below a level of 44 prior to Corning releasing EPS. Decreasing option implied volatility suggests decreasing price fluctuations.
Option volume leaders today were: Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO), Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD), Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) and eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY).
Posted Jan 19th 2007 4:47PM by Paul Foster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major Movement, Analyst Reports, Forecasts, Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple Inc (AAPL), Indices, International Business Machines (IBM), Options
Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX was down .44 to 10.41.
Triad Hospitals (NYSE:TRI) option implied volatility and volume was elevated on an expected event. Triad has been frequently mentioned as a leveraged buyout target over the last nine months. Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC) said they were "converging toward a binary event." Bank of America added "our ear on the ground' suggests the company is indeed entertaining potential buyers." Alex Brown said "reiterate Buy on potential near-term catalyst." Triad reported 2005 annual revenue of $4.7 billion. Triad has a market cap of $3.68 billion with long term debt $1.6 billion. Triad's call option volume of 21,413 contracts compares to put volume of 12,344 contracts. Triad's February option implied volatility of 41 is above its 26-week average of 27 according to Track Data, suggesting increasing fluctuations.
Option volume leaders today were: Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Apple Computer (NASDAQ: AAPL), IBM (NYSE: IBM) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG).
Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Options Specialist Paul Foster of Theflyonthewall.com.
Posted Jun 29th 2006 4:59PM by Sarah Gilbert (RSS feed)
Filed under: After the Bell, Bad News, Management, Insiders, Apple Inc (AAPL)
Investors wonder whether Apple Computer may have backdated option grants, or reset the grant date (and therefore, strike price) to make them more attractive for the recipients, as the company announced today just after the bell that it found "irregularities" in certain option grants several years ago.
One of the irregular grants was made to Steve Jobs, sometime between 1997 and 2001, although Apple says that it was cancelled quickly and the company's CEO made no financial gain as a result.
While it's certainly commendable that Apple is being proactive about the announcement, I can only wonder whether some other employees did record a significant gain in those boom years of 1999 and 2000 -- when this sort of crooked practice was whispered to be quite common.