A newly published report by Standard & Poor's said that the performance of organizations such as Federal National Mortgage Association (NYSE: FNM), or Fannie Mae, and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (NYSE: FRE), or Freddie Mac, could directly affect the U.S. economy and the country's credit rating, especially if they have to be rescued by the government, according to the Wall Street Journal's "Credit Markets" column.
Seagate Technology LLC (NYSE: STX), a hard drive maker, filed a patent infringement suit in San Francisco against STEC Inc (NASDAQ: STEC) over four patents related to technology used to store data on computer chips, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The Financial Times reported that Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) is allowing private equity groups such as Apollo, The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) and TPG that are bidding for up to $12B of its leveraged loans to 'cherry-pick' from a wide range of assets with different credit ratings and prices.
Speaking to friends, the $1 trillion question that keeps arising is "when do we start buying?" Astute investors, they've certainly lightened up on their exposure to stocks over the past few months and have cash sitting on the sidelines. "Are we making a bottom here?" they ask, readying themselves to start moving back into the stock market. As asset allocation and modern portfolio theory tells us, stay in the market, be diversified, and don't trade on emotion. The problem is that investors doing that since 2000 would have seen little investment returns in exchange for taking on stock market risk.
So, with this info in hand, more aggressive investors are looking to spot a bottom and make a buck along the way. So, it's interesting to read weekly Barron's article out over the weekend entitled For the Bold Investor, This Could Be the Time to Buy Tech Stocks. The article, written by one of this author's favorite journalists, Eric Savitz, looks at Oracle's (NASDAQ: ORCL) recent performance as indicative for what's happening to tech. Citing Oracle's Chief Financial Officer Safra Catz, Savitz explains that deals were getting harder to close with some business slipping into the May quarter. Tough times for tech.
So why does Barron's think we should start buying now?
There's much concern in the information technology (IT) world. Might companies cut back on spending in light of the slowing economy?
Well, as for Red Hat (NYSE: RHT), the environment seems to be OK. For example, in Q4, the company posted a 27% increase in revenues to $141.5 million. What's more, bookings are bulging (above $200 million).
While RedHat has a strong business with its Linux offerings, the company is also seeing lots of traction with its middleware platform, known as JBoss. Interestingly enough, with Oracle's (NASDAQ: ORCL) buyout of BEA Systems (NASDAQ: BEAS), there's been a surge in downloads of JBoss. Basically, customers want an alternative.
Going forward, Red Hat forecasts revenues of $665 million to $680 for the upcoming year. Earnings are expected to range from $0.78 to $0.82 per share.
And Red Hat recently purchased Amentra, which is a systems services company. Basically, the deal will allow Red Hat to continue to turbocharge its sales of JBoss.
Shares of Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) are trading slightly lower today as traders prepare for the company's third quarter earnings release. The company is scheduled to report its recent quarterly numbers today after the market closes.
When the company announces its earnings, analysts are expecting to see earnings excluding items of 30 cents on sales of $5.4 billion, up from 25 cents a share and $4.41 billion in revenue reported in the same period a year ago.
Despite the weak market conditions and economic slowdown, Oracle has so far been able to beat or at least match analysts' expectations when it has reported earnings. For the current quarter, the company also expects strong earnings results. This might be due to the company's recent acquisitions whose maintenance revenue help offset weak earnings coming from its customersaffected by the tumbling economy.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: IPC The Hospitalist Co, Forest City Enterprises and SINA Corp were today's noteworthy initiations:
Jefferies believes IPC The Hospitalist Co (NASDAQ: IPCM) is well-positioned to grow rapidly in the next several years, as it takes advantage of numerous organic and acquisition-driven expansion opportunities in the emerging hospitalist sector. The firm started shares with a Buy rating and $27 target.
Forest City Enterprises (NYSE: FCE.A) was initiated with an Outperform rating and $47 target at Keefe Bruyette, as they find shares attractively-valued at current levels.
Sterne Agee initiated SINA Corp (NASDAQ: SINA) with a Buy citing checks that indicate trends for online advertising in China remain very favorable and support a strong growth outlook.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Credit Suisse initiated CBS Corp (NYSE: CBS) with a Neutral rating and $25 target and Alcoa (AA) with an Outperform and $45 target.
Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) was reinstated with a Buy rating and $24 target at Goldman Sachs.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Fluor, Forward Air and McDermott were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Citigroup upgraded shares of Fluor (NYSE: FLR) to Buy from Hold to reflect the company's strong performance and backlog in Q4 and raised their target to $190.50 from $158.
Baird upgraded Forward Air (NASDAQ: FWRD) to Outperform from Neutral citing near-term growth initiatives that are gaining traction.
Citigroup also upgraded shares of McDermott (NYSE: MDR) to Buy from Hold to reflect the company's strong Q4 performance and rising commodity prices.
Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) shares are higher today after a Piper Jaffray analyst reiterated his Buy rating and $70 price target on the stock, citing increased user satisfaction and the potential of higher revenues with the company's adoption of the AppExchange program. But the real excitement on the Street stems from rumors that the CRM has approachedOracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) with a $75 a share sale offer. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on CRM.
After hitting one-year low of $37.24 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $65.52 in December. CRM opened this morning at $53.06. So far today the stock has hit a low of $53.06 and a high of $55.90. As of 11:25, CRM is trading at $54.76, up $3.89 (7.7%). The chart for CRM looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
A slowdown in growth in the telecommunications equipment industry may result in a joint venture between Motorola Inc (NYSE: MOT) and Nortel Networks Corporation (NYSE: NT), that would have combined sales of about $10B, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The Wall Street Journal also reported that Yahoo! Inc's (NASDAQ: YHOO) board is planning to reject the Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) bid of $31 per share, feeling that Microsoft would be taking advantage of a deteriorated Yahoo! share price. Sources said Yahoo! will not consider any offer under $40 per share.
Sony Ericsson, a joint venture between Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE) and LM Ericsson Telephone Company (NASDAQ: ERIC), admitted that its business is weak in India, China, and the U.S. The joint venture has designated those three countries as priorities, the Financial Times reported.
WEB SITES:
According to a source, the Silicon Alley Insider reported that Yahoo! is expected to let go 1,000 employees or more during the week of February 12.
Ah, rumors. The stuff that makes stocks go up and down. At least juicy rumors keep things interesting.
There is some chatter in the blogosphere emanating from SiliconValleyWatcher that enterprise database vendor, Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) may be in the process of scooping up upstart Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM). Not only is SVW hearing this from a reliable source but it appears the buyout may come at a very large premium -- 50% over CRM's share price today.
I feel like this tie-up has been telegraphed from the inception of Salesforce.com as an organization. Salesforce.com plays in the SaaS (Software as a Service) space, effectively letting both large and small sales organizations rent the software that manages their sales pipelines.
I've written about SaaS vendors previously and how they harbinge the future of the software industry. Combine a pay-as-you-go model that addresses the long tail of small businesses with the sales prowess of an Oracle at the Fortune 500 level and you have an extremely interesting M&A.
As SiliconValleyWatcher posits, it's going to come down to numbers. Salesforce's effervescent (understatement) CEO, Mark Benioff, came out of Oracle and could play the role of Larry Ellison's successor. Benioff knows he has some great assets and is looking to best capture their value.
Is Oracle going to pay up?
Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund. Author holds no position in the stocks mentioned.
"This is still a psychologically damaged market; take for example, what happened with VMware (NYSE: VMW) after its latest earnings announcement," notes Toby Smith in ChangeWave Investing.
"VMware recently reported that its fourth-quarter net income more than doubled on an 80% increase in revenue. Despite these excellent results, after-hours selling has plunged the shares lower by 25% to around $61.
"The culprit appears to be analysts' forecasts for an 82% increase in revenues. The buzz on the Street is that this miss signals stiffer competition in the virtualization space from Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL).
"However, during the conference call VMW management said customers have tried some competitors' products and told them that they see no reason to switch.
"This sell-off is similar to what recently happened to Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) -- blowout performance followed by a hatchet job on the shares. As with Apple, we see this price drop in VMW as a great opportunity to establish a low cost-basis in the stock.
Following a risk/reward reassessment, UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) decided to wind down its Switzerland-based private banking business for rich U.S. clients; the decision was announced internally in late December, but confirmed publicly this week, the Financial Times reported.
OTHER PAPERS:
According to the Economic Times, after the dissolution of a proposed joint venture with Rajesh Exports, Fossil Incorporated (NASDAQ: FOSL), the U.S. fashion accessories giant, is set to enter India on its own.
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MAJOR PAPERS:
Speaking to friends, the $1 trillion question that keeps arising is "when do we start buying?" Astute investors, they've certainly lightened up on their exposure to stocks over the past few months and have cash sitting on the sidelines. "Are we making a bottom here?" they ask, readying themselves to start moving back into the stock market. As asset allocation and modern portfolio theory tells us, stay in the market, be diversified, and don't trade on emotion. The problem is that investors doing that since 2000 would have seen little investment returns in exchange for taking on stock market risk.
There's much concern in the information technology (IT) world. Might companies cut back on spending in light of the slowing economy?
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