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Barron's: Oracle's stock ready for a move?

Not many software companies can survive 30 years. But, that's what Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) has been able to do.

In fact, according to a cover piece in Barron's [a paid publication], it looks like the company may be poised for continued success.

The company's CEO and co-founder, Larry Ellison, is a legend in the software business. He has battled with biggies like IBM (NYSE: IBM), SAP (NYSE: SAP) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT). He has also conquered a variety of database operators.

But, Ellison has also been bulking up his company with savvy acquisitions, such as PeopleSoft, Siebel and BEA Systems (spending over $30 billion on dealmaking since 2005). Basically, he believes that business software is a fairly mature business and needs consolidation. What's more, the business is highly sticky. That is, once you implement an ERP system or database platform, it's pretty tough to make a change.

So far, the results have been solid. Over the past year, operating margins have gone from 36% to 42%. Then again, Oracle has benefited from economies of scale, such as with R&D, sales, customer support, and so on.

What's more, Oracle has lots of cross-sale opportunities. In fact, software licenses are up 29% to $4.4 billion. Keep in mind that this will be a source of future growth because of the ongoing maintenance fees.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates MergerBook.com.

NetManage finally manages a buyout

Several years ago, Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL)'s CEO, Larry Ellison, said there were too many software companies, and that as a result, there would be a trend towards consolidation.

However, with the credit crunch – and the slowing economy – things have gone off track somewhat. But now we may see more dealmaking.

Take a look at NetManage (NASDAQ: NETM). The company has been "in play" for a while. Last year, Rocket Software tried to buy the company for $69 million, but the deal fell-through because of difficulties with obtaining financing.

Well, NetManage was able to find a new suitor, Micro Focus International, and both parties recently agreed to a $73.3 million buyout deal.

NetManage has a strong set of technologies that deal with integration and web services. The company has also been revamping its platform. In Q4, the company posted a 27% increase in revenues to $10.9 million and net income came to $1.7 million, or $0.17 per share.

Micro Focus, though, is probably more interested in NetManage's customer base, which is about 10,000 or so. The company cranks out about $22 million in maintenance fees, which are fairly reliable and high margin.

And despite the recent improvement with NetManage, the company still faces tough competition. So, selling out -- especially at its 70%+ premium -- makes a lot of sense.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates MergerBook.com.

Short sellers covered before earnings in top digital names (MSFT, GOOG, YHOO, ORCL)

It is always interesting to see the changes in short interest, particularly when you are right in the middle of earnings season. It seems the short sellers have gotten a little less confident on the "digital four" of the NASDAQ. In fact, the only one of the four that saw an increase was only a tiny increase.

As you will see below, the major components of the NASDAQ top digital companies saw real short covering ahead of earnings. Keeping conviction against stocks is frequent, but the lessons of eternal pessimism have historically shown to not be a winning strategy.

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT)
Short Interest Change Avg, Day Vol. Days to Cover
04/15/2008 109,056,265 (7.88%) 48,450,376 2.25
03/31/2008 118,383,897 (3.82%) 57,762,166 2.05

Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG)
Short Interest Change Avg, Day Vol. Days to Cover
04/15/2008 4,905,775 (5.84%) 5,368,787 1.00
03/31/2008 5,210,156 7.07% 6,382,427 1.00

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO)
Short Interest Change Avg, Day Vol. Days to Cover
04/15/2008 36,104,797 (12.54%) 22,789,737 1.58
03/31/2008 41,280,401 (17.13%) 25,874,919 1.60

Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL)
Short Interest Change Avg, Day Vol. Days to Cover
04/15/2008 42,655,256 2.94% 34,868,017 1.22
03/31/2008 41,436,043 6.57% 51,966,613 1.00

As Oracle's earnings are still a ways out, the need for traders to cover there probably wasn't as critical as it was otherwise.

Jon Ogg is an editor and producer of the "10 Stocks Under $10" weekly newsletter for 247WallSt.com.

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Plotting the course

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the good stuff out there -- and there's a lot of it -- will keep us going up.

How high can we go? That's pretty much the only question worth asking after you put in a bottom, as we did after the Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) (Cramer's Take) collapse.

Nobody's talking about a new bull market. But let me give you some thoughts about what has happened in the past few weeks to make it so that you could become more positive.

First, we went down so much because the systemic risk in the biggest part of the S&P, the financials, was overwhelming. It is why we "overcorrected" because the market feared -- and shorts pressed their bets -- that the following institutions could go under: Bear Stearns, Washington Mutual (WM) (Cramer's Take), Wachovia (WB) (Cramer's Take) -- yes, Wachovia, because of the miserable buy of what turned out to be a really reckless lender, Golden West -- Lehman Brothers (LEH) (Cramer's Take), Merrill Lynch (MER) (Cramer's Take), Citigroup (C) (Cramer's Take), National City (NCC) (Cramer's Take), Capital One (COF) (Cramer's Take) and even Wells Fargo (WFC) (Cramer's Take). Fannie (FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie (FRE) (Cramer's Take), too.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Plotting the course

Newspaper wrap-up: If the U.S. has to save Fannie and Freddie, triple-A rating could suffer

MAJOR PAPERS:
WEB SITES:

For bold investors: Barron's thinks it's time to leg into technology stocks

Speaking to friends, the $1 trillion question that keeps arising is "when do we start buying?" Astute investors, they've certainly lightened up on their exposure to stocks over the past few months and have cash sitting on the sidelines. "Are we making a bottom here?" they ask, readying themselves to start moving back into the stock market. As asset allocation and modern portfolio theory tells us, stay in the market, be diversified, and don't trade on emotion. The problem is that investors doing that since 2000 would have seen little investment returns in exchange for taking on stock market risk.

So, with this info in hand, more aggressive investors are looking to spot a bottom and make a buck along the way. So, it's interesting to read weekly Barron's article out over the weekend entitled For the Bold Investor, This Could Be the Time to Buy Tech Stocks. The article, written by one of this author's favorite journalists, Eric Savitz, looks at Oracle's (NASDAQ: ORCL) recent performance as indicative for what's happening to tech. Citing Oracle's Chief Financial Officer Safra Catz, Savitz explains that deals were getting harder to close with some business slipping into the May quarter. Tough times for tech.

So why does Barron's think we should start buying now?

Continue reading For bold investors: Barron's thinks it's time to leg into technology stocks

Red Hat sees some green

There's much concern in the information technology (IT) world. Might companies cut back on spending in light of the slowing economy?

Well, as for Red Hat (NYSE: RHT), the environment seems to be OK. For example, in Q4, the company posted a 27% increase in revenues to $141.5 million. What's more, bookings are bulging (above $200 million).

While RedHat has a strong business with its Linux offerings, the company is also seeing lots of traction with its middleware platform, known as JBoss. Interestingly enough, with Oracle's (NASDAQ: ORCL) buyout of BEA Systems (NASDAQ: BEAS), there's been a surge in downloads of JBoss. Basically, customers want an alternative.

Going forward, Red Hat forecasts revenues of $665 million to $680 for the upcoming year. Earnings are expected to range from $0.78 to $0.82 per share.

And Red Hat recently purchased Amentra, which is a systems services company. Basically, the deal will allow Red Hat to continue to turbocharge its sales of JBoss.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates DealProfiles.com.

Earnings highlights: Adobe, ConAgra, Lennar, Oracle, Tiffany, Darden and others

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Also, auction-rate securities issues may hurt some tech company results. Analysts keep cutting earings estimates for the big banks, but some are eyeing Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) earnings prospects as it expands in China, as well as Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM) on soaring demand for commodities.

Upcoming results to watch for include Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), Monsanto (NYSE: MON), and Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

Closing Bell: More negative close than it felt like

The Commerce Department's Q4-2007 final revision for GDP came in at +0.6%, but that was in-line and the data is now more than 75-days old. But it does highlight the concerns that the growth rates this quarter just can not be good. It also set the tone for more selling. It just goes to show that it still pays in today's climate to sell when you are feeling good about the market and buy when you feel overly concerned.

The Federal Reserve also auctioned off some $75 billion in treasury securities after receiving bids for some $86.1 billion. This was the first auction of its kind and the next auction is set for April 3. Below are the unofficial closing prices:
  • DJIA 12,302.70 (-120.16; -0.97%)
  • NASDAQ 2,280.83 (-43.53; -1.87%)
  • S&P500 1,325.77 (-15.36; -1.15%)
  • 10YR-TBond 3.534% (+0.04%)
  • Key 52-Week Lows
If you look at the unusual increase seen in short selling in many of the NASDAQ names from this morning, you might scratch your head. But that's the world we live in.

Continue reading Closing Bell: More negative close than it felt like

Option Update: Oracle volatility elevated into Q3 revenues up 21%

Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) is recently trading at $19.26 in pre open trading, below its close of $20.94.

Friedman, Billings, Ramsey says: "Mixed results – want to own ahead of FY4Q. Maintain Outperform."

ORCL April option implied volatility of 50 is above its 26-week average of 35 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Pre-market movers (ORCL) (CCU) (MF)

Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) is off almost 8% on weaker-than-expected earnings.

Clear Channel (NYSE:CCU) is up over 12% on news of a court order that banks must fund a private equity buy-out.

MF Global (NYSE:MF) is up 9% on news that it has freed up $800 million in liquidity.

SAP (NYSE:SAP) is down 6% on bad news from riva Oracle.

Stocks may trade differently in the pre-market than they do in the regular session.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Before the bell: Futures higher ahead of GDP; ORCL drops, CCU climbs, LEN beats

U.S. stock futures pointed to a higher open at the start of trading Thursday with Oracle likely to drop after reporting disappointing earnings yesterday. Sentiment could change, however as economic growth reading will be reported an hour before the opening bell.

On Wednesday, U.S. stocks dropped on renewed credit concerns after after news that the Clear Channel deal may be stalled due to financing issues. Declining durable goods orders didn't help sentiment and markets ended up declining with a day that exhibited patterns only too familiar as of late, a surge in commodity prices while the dollar weakened. The Dow industrials dropped 109 points, or 0.88%, the Nasdaq Composite lost 16 points, or 0.71%, and the S&P 500 fell 11 points, or 0.88%.

Today, several more economic readings will help shape the session, especially with the final reading on fourth-quarter gross domestic product -- due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT -- which is expected to remain the same as previous reading and show a 0.6% economic growth, a near standstill, and the weakest pace in five years. The deepening housing slump has probably tipped the U.S. economy into a recession. The situation may not be much better in 2008 as consumer spending has slowed and business investment and the housing market has continued to decline. Despite actions taken by the Federal Reserve and the government, these measures' effect will be a while in stimulating the economy and may not do so soon enough to avoid recession.

Also at 8:30, the Labor Department will release its weekly initial claims report.

Continue reading Before the bell: Futures higher ahead of GDP; ORCL drops, CCU climbs, LEN beats

Oracle comes up light

Shares of Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) fell in after-hours trading after the software maker reported inline earnings, indicating a slowdown in technology spending by businesses.

Net income rose 30% to $1.3 billion, or 30 cents per share, on revenue of $5.3 billion, according to the earnings press release. Analysts were expecting profit of 30 cents on revenue of $5.42 billion, according to Thomson Financial.

Until now, Wall Street was in love with the stock, sending the shares up about 13% this year at a time when many big-cap tech stocks have done poorly. This is the type of company that has conditioned investors to expect continued outperformance.

In fact, Bloomberg News went so far as to note: "Oracle Chief Executive Officer Larry Ellison, who led the software maker on a $33.5 billion spending spree, did more than add 39 businesses and 20,000 customers. He bought armor against a U.S. economic slump."

Guess that armor has some kinks in it now.

Tonight's conference call should be lively. The stock will fall even further if the company's guidance isn't extraordinarily optimistic.

Oracle (ORCL) expects strong quarterly earnings

Shares of Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) are trading slightly lower today as traders prepare for the company's third quarter earnings release. The company is scheduled to report its recent quarterly numbers today after the market closes.

When the company announces its earnings, analysts are expecting to see earnings excluding items of 30 cents on sales of $5.4 billion, up from 25 cents a share and $4.41 billion in revenue reported in the same period a year ago.

Despite the weak market conditions and economic slowdown, Oracle has so far been able to beat or at least match analysts' expectations when it has reported earnings. For the current quarter, the company also expects strong earnings results. This might be due to the company's recent acquisitions whose maintenance revenue help offset weak earnings coming from its customers affected by the tumbling economy.

Continue reading Oracle (ORCL) expects strong quarterly earnings

Before the bell: Futures decline on renewed credit concerns

U.S. stock futures were lower early Wednesday morning. Just as investors started to feel the credit crisis may have seen its worse days, came yesterday's bombshell that banks are unwilling to finance the $19 billion sale of radio broadcaster Clear Channel to private equity firms. This, of course renewed credit concerns and as investors await some economic data this morning, all indications points to U.S. markets starting on a weak note.

Yesterday, U.S. stocks finished mixed as readings on housing and consumer confidence came in weak. An upgrade of Yahoo! and several companies forecasting improved earnings caused the mixed trading day. The Dow industrials lost 16 points, or 0.13%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 14 points, or 0.61%, and the S&P 500 added 3 points, or 0.23%.

Economic data today includes a reading at 8:30 a.m. EDT on durable goods orders for February, which is expected to have increased somewhat, after dropping the month before.
At 10:00 a.m. EDT, February new home sales is due out. It is expected the data will show yet another weakness, but to remind readers, existing home sales released earlier this week, showed the first improvement in a while.
Then, at 10:30 a.m. EDT, weekly crude inventory will be reported. Oil futures increased ahead of the report. Despite expectation supplies will show an increase, it seems investors once again bought oil futures in wake of the dollar weakening again and economic worries predict lower demand for oil.

Continue reading Before the bell: Futures decline on renewed credit concerns

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-5.8612,986.80
NASDAQ-4.882,528.85
S&P 500+1.781,425.35

Last updated: May 18, 2008: 05:32 AM

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