Analyst Upgrades

• Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Fluor (FLR) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Macy's (M) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Canadian Solar (CSIQ), JA Solar (JASO) and HeartWare (HTWR) to buy from hold at Auriga.
• Ashford Hospitality (AHT) to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
• RenaissanceRe (RNR) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• DCT Industrial (DCT) to market perform from underperform at Wells Fargo.
• Coeur d'Alene Mines (CDE) and Silver Standard (SSRI) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Weatherford (WFT), Hercules (HERO), GulfMark Offshore (GLF), Tidewater (TDW) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to buy from hold, and Diamond Offshore (DO) to hold from underperform, at Jefferies.
• Ritchie Bros. (RBA) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• AstraZeneca (AZN) to buy from hold at Citigroup.

"Quality is a big reason why Panera Bread (PNRA) has not only survived but prospered during this economic slowdown," says Alexander Green.

The editor of The Oxford Club explains, "I prefer to buy from -- and invest in -- companies that compete primarily on the basis of quality.

"Why? Because quality is remembered long after price is forgotten. In short, Panera is a case study in how to attract customers -- and shareholders -- the right way. Customers tend to patronize those firms with a reputation for meeting or exceeding expectations. Plus, satisfied customers are an excellent source of referrals.

An update: a decision to close two short positions - due to the probability of higher-than-expected U.S. GDP growth in Q3/Q4, and the impact that better economic recovery would have on consumer spending.

The two closed positions: Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA), recommended on May 29, 2009 at a price of $52.65, and Cal-Maine Foods (NYSE: CALM), recommended on the same day at a price of $23.21.

The earnings crunch rolls on this coming week, with quarterly reports expected from Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), Kellogg (NYSE: K), MasterCard (NYSE: MA), Motorola (NYSE: MOT), Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S), Travelers (NYSE: TRV), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), U.S. Steel (NYSE: X), Viacom (NYSE: VIA), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), and many others.

Below are some reporting companies for which analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters have high hopes. What does that mean? Well, all of them are expected to report double-digit earnings grown in the most recent quarter. They have tended to offer positive surprises in recent quarters. They have long-term EPS growth forecasts of greater than 10%, and they have earnings multiples that are higher than their industry or sector averages, or higher than at least one top competitor. And they all have First Call consensus recommendations to buy.

Investor and trader Mishko Janusevich had a mantra that he used to repeat while outlining the top, new stock shorts that appeared that day, as determined by technical indicators.

He would stand next to the overhead projected stock chart at the front of the trading room, point to the stock chart and recite, "You see this stock? You see that it's dropped $8 in past two days? You think it can't drop any more? SELL THAT STOCK it's dropping more!!"

Short these shares if you can tolerate high-risk and are an experienced investor that does not remove Buy/Stop Losses.

This post is part of a seven article report -- Food for thought: Best bets in food & beverage stocks.

"The fast-casual restaurant category is sizzling as consumers trim their eating budgets; this trend is helping Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA)," says Michael Cintolo in The Cabot Top Ten Report.

"In restaurant parlance, 'fast-casual' eateries are higher priced than fast-food chains such as McDonald's and KFC, but cheaper than casual dining restaurants such as Applebee's and Denny's.

In a difficult economic environment, it is often wise for investors to consider stocks in more defensive and relatively recession-resistant sectors. And one such area is food and beverage stocks.

As the long-standing market maxim goes, consumers can pull back on spending for vacations, remodeling, and new cars, but they still need to eat and drink.

In that light, I turned to nine leading newsletter advisors who serve up their current favorite ideas in the food and beverage sector:

It's about that time again: Pepsi vs. Coke. No, not another taste test or another Battle of the Brands. It's time for the next quarterly results from these two soft drink titans.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters anticipate that PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP), global beverage and snack food giant, will report fourth-quarter earnings this week that are 9.1% higher that a year ago, or $0.88 per share. Revenue is expected to total $12.8 billion, which is 3.9% higher than last year. For the full year, the profit is expected to be $3.67 per share on revenue of $43.4 billion, up from $3.38 per share on $39.5 billion in 2007. PepsiCo's earnings met or beat estimates in four of the past five quarters, but missed by only two cents per share in the third quarter. The consensus recommendation of analysts remains to buy PEP. The share price fell to a 52-week low in January and is now 24.4% lower than it was a year ago. During the fourth quarter, PepsiCo declared a $0.42 per share quarterly dividend, agreed to acquire a Spitz International, and announced investments in China and Mexico.

The earnings crunch continues to roll along, and here are a some highlights of this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Aetna Inc. (NYSE: AET) beat expectations and raised its full-year guidance.
• Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) beat estimates by a penny and offered a poor outlook.
• American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) delivered a positive surprise, with profits up 10%.
• Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) beat estimates, but revenue was flat.
• Anheuser-Busch Cos. (NYSE: BUD) beat expectations on strength of international sales and partner brands.
• Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) blew past expectations. See our conference call live blog.
• Avery Dennison Corp.'s (NYSE: AVY) net sales up, EPS down, both due to the Paxar acquisition.
• Baidu.com Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) beat expectations, but wariness about its growth potential lingers.
• Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) beat expectations but lowered its guidance.
• Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) beat expectations on the strength of Plavix sales.
• CNH Global's (NYSE: CNH) profit nearly doubled, beating estimates by 15%.
• Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) beat estimates by a penny, but offered a conservative outlook for the holidays.
• Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) met EPS expectations but cut its cash flow forecast.
• Countrywide Financial Corp. (NYSE: CFC) reported a $1.2 billion loss, but predicts a profit in the next quarter.

Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA), an owner and franchisor of 1,115 bakery-cafes, is recently up $2.28 to $45.40.

• PNRA reported that third quarter revenue increased 35% to $276 million compared to the year ago period.
  
• Bear Stearns says: "Sales in line; guidance narrowed up versus consensus."
  
• PNRA overall option implied volatility of 37 is above its 26-week average of 34 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price risks.

JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), a global financial holding company, closed at $46.78.

• Bloomberg reported: "China may prevent foreign investors from taking control of domestic brokerages, a setback to Wall Street's ambitions to tap the world's fastest-growing stock market, people familiar with the planned rules said."
• JPM is expected to report EPS on 10/17.
  
• JPM October option implied volatility of 30 is above its 26-week average of 26 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

The past several months have not been kind to Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA). The stock was trading near $70 last fall after several years of steady growth, then it started dropping early in October, made up some of that lost ground, and then took a real hit in June when the company lowered its expectations for the second quarter. Then, last week it lowered its expectations for the third quarter, which sent the stock down another 9%.

The main reason for these woes is decreased profitability. Analysts like Jeffrey Bernstein at Lehman Brothers have blamed rising commodity prices, while John Gloss of CIBC attributes it to commodities as well as labor costs. The company has looked to customer shifts from home-baked bread and muffins to outsourced products like scones and soufflés. Others have blamed rising fuel costs that have led to more customers staying home rather than driving to eat. Whatever the reason, PNRA's results have not been good, and investors have understandably been selling shares.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Restaurants, CB Richard Ellis Group Inc (NYSE: CBG) and Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated (NYSE: JLL) were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Deutsche Bank initiated shares of McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD) and Yum! Brands Inc (NYSE: YUM) with Buy ratings and a $61 target and $76 target, respectively, and shares of Panera Bread Company (NASDAQ: PNRA) and Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE: CMG) with Hold ratings an a $54 target and $83 target, respectively.
• Wachovia initiated shares of CB Richard Ellis with an Outperform rating, as it views CBG as a compelling investment opportunity giving its leading position in the top real estate markets and breadth of services.
• Wachovia also initiated shares of Jones Lang LaSalle with an Outperform rating, as it expects JLL to benefit from international services given the increasing flow of real estate dollars across boarders and to less well developed regions of the globe.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Citigroup initiated shares of GameStop Corp (NYSE: GME) with a Buy rating and $46 target.
• Citigroup also initiated shares of The PNC Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE: PNC) with a Buy rating and $84 target.
• Soleil initiated shares of Salesforce.com Inc (NYSE: CRM) with a Buy rating and $50 target.
• Goldman Sachs initiated shares of 3M Company (NYSE: MMM) and LM Ericsson Telephone Company (NASDAQ: ERIC) with Neutral ratings.

Many years ago, when I was in law school, I had to read lots of boring legal cases. From time to time, though, there would be a crazy case to liven things up.

Well, we got one recently. Panera Bread (NASDAQ:PNRA), which is a large bakery-cafe chain, sued Qdoba Mexican Grill, which is owned by Jack in the Box (NYSE:JBX). Qdoba wanted to move into a mall in Shrewsbury, Massachusetts. The mall already had a Panera, and Panera's lawyers had cleverly negotiated an important clause in its lease agreement: the mall was prohibited from renting to another sandwich shop.

The ruling? The judge dismissed Panera's claim. His analysis was that, technically speaking, a burrito is not a sandwich. Simply put, a burrito involves only one tortilla, whereas a sandwich has two slices of bread.

Yes, it looks like he's on solid ground. Of course, Panera's attorneys disagree and will appeal.

It's enough to make me wish I were back in law school.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and operates InvestorOffering.com.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Specific restaurants and Autodesk (ADSK) top today's list of initiations.

• Robert W. Baird initiated coverage of Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ:SBUX), Panera Bread Co. (NASDAQ:PNRA), Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) and Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ:TXRH) with Outperform ratings and P. F. Chang's China Bistro Inc (NASDAQ:PFCB) and Rare Hospitality International, Inc. (NASDAQ:RARE) with Neutral ratings.
• American Tech initiated Autodesk , Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK) with a Buy rating and $12 target. The firm expects to see meaningful upside to 2008 consensus estimates and recommends investors to buy the stock on any pullback following Thursday's results.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Soleil initiated Openwave Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:OPWV) with a Hold rating, citing unlikely outperformance due to their maturing product line and consolidating customer base.
• The Bank of America initiated F5 Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:FFIV) with a Buy and $90 target. The firm said checks in the enterprise segment have been positive. In addition, Soleil said the company will soon enter a major product cycle with four launches.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Cramer discussed a tale of two different Panera Breads. On MAD MONEY, he said that Panera Bread Company (NASDAQ:PNRA) is not a $46 or $64 stock. He said on July 26 the company committed a cardinal sin by revising its range. The bakery chain revised by broadening, extending the top and bottom of its range by $0.02 in either direction. And although the same store sales were surprisingly low one month, it was just like Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX): the following month, sales were back to normal, and everyone bought the stock.

He says that Crispani is to Panera what Frappuccino is to Starbucks. He says PNRA should never have been there and he thinks PNRA is going to $74 soon. He said CIBC's John Glass was dead right on his call when he said that PNRA's drop back then was the wrong move. Cramer thinks the company goes higher.

PNRA has 939 bakery-cafes in 37 states. It reports in two weeks; Cramer argues that investors should should buy half of a position now and half after the earnings report. He thinks the company can have 2,500 to 3,000 stores before reaching any saturation. There was a change in strategy that extends the company's market, from lunch only to both lunch and dinner.

PNRA has a 52-week trading range of $46.25 to $75.88. PNRA closed down 1.5% in regular trading at $64.22, but is back up closer to $65.00 in after-hours trading.

Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St., LLC; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.