Netflix (NFLX) overall option implied volatility is at 45, according to Track Data, below its 26-week average of 52, suggesting decreasing price movement.
Panera Bread (PNRA) overall option implied volatility is at 37, according to Track Data, above its 26-week average of 32 into its release of Q4 results, suggesting larger price movement.
Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
panera posts
FeedOptions Update: Netflix Volatility Near Nine-Month Lows; Shares Near Record High
Analyst Calls: AMD, BLK, CSX, DKS, GME, HGSI, HON, KEY, NSC, STP, ZION ...
- Goldman upgraded CSX (CSX) to neutral from sell.
- General Cable (BGC) was upgraded to buy from hold at KeyBanc.
- Morgan Stanley upgraded Chart Industries (GTLS) and Dresser Rand (DRC) to overweight from equal weight.
- Blackrock (BLK) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie.
- Credit Suisse upgraded Zions Bancorp (ZION) to neutral from underperform and GameStop (GME) to outperform from neutral.
- Honeywell (HON) was upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
- Panera Bread (PNRA) was upgraded to buy from neutral at SunTrust.
Continue reading Analyst Calls: AMD, BLK, CSX, DKS, GME, HGSI, HON, KEY, NSC, STP, ZION ...
Analyst Calls: CTV, CVX, EAT, FCX, ICE, MAR, MW, TRV, WLP ...
Analyst Upgrades
- Verisk (VRSK) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
- Marriott (MAR) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Bernstein.
- Jefferies upgraded Teekay (TK) and Tsakos Energy (TNP) to Buy from Hold.
- Cadence Design (CDNS) was upgraded to sector perform from underperform at RBC Capital.
- BofA/Merrill upgraded NV Energy (NVE) to buy from underperform and Education Realty Trust (EDR) to neutral from underperform.
- Men's Wearhouse (MW) was upgraded to buy from hold at Stifel.
- William Blair upgraded Atheros (ATHR) to outperform from market perform.
- Freeport McMoran (FCX) was upgraded to buy from hold at Argus.
Continue reading Analyst Calls: CTV, CVX, EAT, FCX, ICE, MAR, MW, TRV, WLP ...
Options Update: SPDR Homebuilders Volatility Elevated At 39
SPDR Homebuilder (XHB) closed at $14.91. Goldman Sachs downgraded the homebuilders to neutral from buy. XHB August and September put option implied volatility was at 39, December at 40; above its 26-week average of 33 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.Panera Bread (PNRA) is expected to report Q2 EPS in late July. PNRA August put option implied volatility was at 34, November is at 37, near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term (VXX) closed up 3.72% to 25.93.
Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
Coming soon: The Burger King of the future
Burger King Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BKC) announced plans Wednesday to overhaul its 12,000 locations worldwide. The fast-food giant is seeking a sleeker, futuristic look that includes LCD-screen menus, rotating chandeliers, and corrugated metal and brick accents (see pictures at the above link) on the inside, as well as metal canopies and additional signs on the exterior.
The new upscale design, called 20/20, is expected to cost franchisees between $300,000 to $600,000 per restaurant. Some 60 locations have already been remodeled, including in Miami, Mexico City, Edinburgh, and Shanghai, and 75 more are expected to be completed by the end of 2010. All new restaurants will be built using the 20/20 design.
Consumer stocks to sell now: #3 -- Landry's Restaurants (LNY)
One of the first movers seeing an uptick in spending due to increased consumer confidence is the restaurant space. Only a few diehards really like to stay home and cook. Dining out is a great way to escape. Even better is going to a restaurant for a meal that's affordable.
The fact that dining has suffered during this recession is indicative of how bad things really have been.
Given that confidence is rising, it's no surprise then that Landry's Restaurants (NYSE: LNY) has almost tripled in value since hitting bottom in early March.
Continue reading Consumer stocks to sell now: #3 -- Landry's Restaurants (LNY)
Cramer on BloggingStocks: Restaurant shake-up will favor nimble players
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that as consumers try to stretch their dining dollar, Darden, Yum! and McDonald's will benefit.We all know we are overstored in this country and over-restauranted. There are tons of players -- so many that the competition got too hard. Now they collapse. That Uno might miss a payment, that Bennigan's and Steak & Ale are going away, that Bakers Square and Village Inn have filed for bankruptcy: All say the industry is in big trouble.
But ask yourself, if you are Darden (NYSE: DRI) (Cramer's Take), do you think this is a good or bad development? If you are Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) (Cramer's Take), do you think that this, at last, is your time? How about McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) (Cramer's Take)? Room to go more upscale, perhaps?
We read all of these horrible articles every day about restaurants, and yet we see that the stocks of Yum! and Darden hang in great, particularly the first, which gave hideous guidance and yet is now higher than it was before it told people commodity costs were hurting it. McDonald's? How many stocks just hit their 52-week high?
Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Restaurant shake-up will favor nimble players
Earnings highlights: Anadarko, Disney, Coors, Unilever, Activision, Marvel and others
Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:
- Activision Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) posted stellar results on the popularity of Guitar Hero and Transformers.
- Airgas Inc. (NYSE: ARG) beat Q4 estimtates with record earnings and raised its guidance.
- Amkor Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: AMKR) beat Q1 expectations on strong demand for wireless.
- Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC) reported strong Q1 results that beat Wall Street estimates.
- Barnes Group Inc. (NYSE: B) beat Q1 expectations on its "global reach" and raised its 2008 guidance.
- Coinstar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSTR) beat Q1 expectations and raised its full-year guidance.
- DirecTV Group Inc. (NASDAQ: DTV) posted better-than-expected results and announced share buybacks.
- Double-Take Software (NASDAQ: DBTK) beat Q1 expectations and raised its Q2 and 2008 guidance.
- Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) profits surged in the first quarter on record high gold prices.
- ICON plc (NASDAQ: ICLR) beat Q1 expectations and raised its full-year guidance.
- Marvel Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: MVL) easily beat Q1 estimates and raised its full-year guidance.
- Molson Coors Brewing Co. (NYSE: TAP) reported a surge in Q1 profits that beat Wall Street estimates.
- Panera Bread Co. (NASDAQ: PNRA) beat Q1 expectations and lifted its Q2 and 2008 forecasts.
- Symantec Corp. (NASDAQ: SYMC) beat Q4 expectations and raised its Q1 outlook.
- Transocean Inc. (NYSE: RIG) Q1 profits more than doubled due to soaring oil prices.
- Unilever (NYSE: UL) posted strong results, with revenues beating estimates for the first time in six years.
- UTStarcom Inc. (NASDAQ: UTSI) released a preliminary guidance well above expectations.
- Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) posted better-than-expected results on success of its theme parks.
The Week in Preview: All eyes on the Fed
Next week is sure to be filled with fun and volatile market conditions. The highlight will be the Fed decision on key rates, due on Wednesday, April 30, following a two-day meeting. Anytime the Fed has the floor, the markets listen. Tuesday and Wednesday will be filled with speculation up until the time of the announcement of a cut or pause.
There are many possible outcomes for this meeting, as we have seen a substantial change in investor sentiment regarding the potential need for further rate cuts. The buzz on the street is for a cut of 25 basis points and then a wait-and-see attitude from there. I think that is the most likely direction.
There has been a great deal of concern that all the recent rate cuts have not provided the benefit to consumers the economy needs. Clearly, there is a fatty clog within our financial circulatory system. Traditionally, the Fed likes to see how its actions trickle into the economy before it continues too far down one path, which would argue for a pause now. Plus, the Fed does not want to run out of ammunition by cutting rates too far too fast. But there is no question that we are dealing with a more aggressive Fed than we have seen in decades, so I think we will see another small rate cut.
Panera Bread (PNRA) needs to raise the dough
Panera Bread Company (NASDAQ: PNRA) released on Tuesday 3Q 2007 earnings that indicate the company didn't raise much dough. Revenue was up 35% to $276 million, which sounds encouraging. But that revenue increase translated into a much lower increase in net income, 10%. Net income YTD 2007, $40 million, is exactly the same as net income YTD 2006, even though Panera has opened 35 new bakery-cafe locations in 3Q 2007 alone.
Same-store sales increased 2.6% during the quarter, yet average weekly sales were essentially flat. Diluted 3Q EPS was $0.37, an improvement over diluted EPS of $0.34 in 3Q 2006 until one factors in the $0.05 per share benefit from the resolution of a tax disagreement with the IRS. Without that benefit, actual EPS would have been $0.32 per share.
In effect, Panera is earning more revenue but making less money. Even CEO Ron Shaich admits Panera needs to "return to a record of strong earnings growth."
Panera is faced with a triple whammy. It has shifted its menu offerings away from lower cost soup and sandwiches to higher cost salads. Across the board, ingredients' costs are rising, as are labor costs. Yet the company remains optimistic, or perhaps just confused. Senior management forecasts same bakery-cafe sales growth of 1-3.5% for 4Q 2007 and same bakery-cafe sales growth of 1-4% for FY 2008. Unless that sales growth results in net income growth, the dough simply will not rise.
Investors have reacted negatively to the 3Q figures. The stock closed recently at $41.66, down $1.95 on the news.
Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage
Analyst upgrades: SNY, LIFC, MYL, PNRA and NHY
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sanofi-Aventis, Lifecell, Mylan Labs, Panera Bread and Norsk Hydro were today's noteworthy upgrades:- Societe Generale upgraded shares of Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY) to Buy from Hold as they believe pipeline maturation over the next 12 months can drive the stock higher.
- Piper upgraded shares of Lifecell (NASDAQ: LIFC) to Outperform from Market Perform after their recent survey indicated that AlloDerm remains the leading biologic hernia mesh on the market and competition is making little headway.
- JP Morgan upgraded Mylan Labs (NYSE: MYL), Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA) and Norsk Hydro (NYSE: NHY) to Overweight from Neutral. The firm upgraded Mylan based on its position in the global generics market and above-average growth; Panera was upgraded on valuation, as they believe the recent operating risk is now behind the company; Norsk Hydro was upgraded, as they believe the value of the company's aluminum assets are higher than the current share price suggests.
- HSBC upgraded Ride Aid (NYSE: RAD) to Neutral from Underweight.
- UBS upgraded Standard Pacific (NYSE: SPF) and Ciena (NASDAQ: CIEN) to Neutral from Sell and Sherwin-Williams (NYSE: SHW) to Buy from Neutral.
- Goldman added Cytec Industries (NYSE: CYT) to its Conviction Buy List.
Panera Bread Company: A temporary rut
The past several months have not been kind to Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA). The stock was trading near $70 last fall after several years of steady growth, then it started dropping early in October, made up some of that lost ground, and then took a real hit in June when the company lowered its expectations for the second quarter. Then, last week it lowered its expectations for the third quarter, which sent the stock down another 9%. The main reason for these woes is decreased profitability. Analysts like Jeffrey Bernstein at Lehman Brothers have blamed rising commodity prices, while John Gloss of CIBC attributes it to commodities as well as labor costs. The company has looked to customer shifts from home-baked bread and muffins to outsourced products like scones and soufflés. Others have blamed rising fuel costs that have led to more customers staying home rather than driving to eat. Whatever the reason, PNRA's results have not been good, and investors have understandably been selling shares.
Analyst upgrades 7-26-07: BIDU, DCX, EXPE and USG
MOST NOTEWORTHY: DaimlerChrysler (DCX), Omniture (OMTR), Convergys (CVG), Expedia (EXPE) and Baidu.com (BIDU) were today's noteworthy upgrades: - WestLB upgraded shares of DaimlerChrysler (NYSE: DCX) to Buy from Add after the company raised the profit margin forecast for its Mercedes unit.
- Omniture (NASDAQ: OMTR) was upgraded by Piper Jaffray to Market Perform from Underperform to reflect the company's strong revenue momentum and expanding margins.
- Citigroup raised shares of Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE) and Baidu.com (NASDAQ: BIDU) to Buy from Hold on valuation...
- Bear Stearns upgraded shares of Ryder System (NYSE: R) to Outperform from Underperform.
- Lehman raised EnCana Corp (NYSE: ECA) to Equal Weight from Underweight.
- Morgan Keegan upgraded shares of Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA) to Outperform from Market Perform.
- Citigroup raised Cullen/Frost Bankers (NYSE: CFR) to Hold from Sell.
Restaurant chain earnings giving indigestion
I've held the anti-restaurant thesis for several weeks now, and I think the two reports after the bell yesterday validated the thoughts. Commodity costs are up, labor costs are increasing (and will to continue to increase) with the rise in the minimum wage, the increase in gas prices crunches the consumer's spending power, and so on. CEC Entertainment (NYSE: CEC), the operator of Chuck E. Cheeses restaurants, reported earnings of 26 cents per share vs. expectations of 34 cents per share. In addition, same-store-sales fell 1.6% while operating costs rose 4%. Interestingly, the company attributed its poor performance not only to gas prices, but also popular new movie releases which drew its young-children demographic out of its restaurants and into movie theaters. If this wasn't enough, CEC cut its full year guidance to $1.96-$2.04 per share -- a rather significant difference from the analyst estimates of $2.26 per share before this report.
Similarly, Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA) disappointed the street after the bell. As Beth Gaston Moon reported, the company's guidance for the coming quarter of 32-38 cents per share in EPS came in below prior analyst expectations of 43 cents. In addition, the company's guidance for the second half of the year of $.86-1.02 per share disappointed analysts who expected $1.12 per share.
Continue reading Restaurant chain earnings giving indigestion
Panera Bread reports its quarterly dough
Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA) - operator of casual bakery/cafes with free WiFi and tasty cinnamon-crunch bagels - was the latest restaurateur to report earnings tonight. After the close, PNRA announced second-quarter income totaled $12.6 million, or 39 cents per share, matching the average analyst estimate. This marks a 10% decline from last year's results. Revenue, however, managed to climb 28% to $253 million, edging out Wall Street expectations of $250.6 million. Same-restaurant sales rose 2.1% during the reporting period, led by strength in franchise-operated locations.
Looking ahead to the third quarter, PNRA expects per-share earnings results of 32 cents to 38 cents per share, well below analysts' current view of 43 cents. For July, Panera officials predict same-store sales growth of 3.6% to 3.9%.
Investors appear to be brushing off the positive revenue surprise and focusing on the grim third-quarter outlook, which falls short of analysts' expectations. In after-hours trading, PNRA has dropped 6.5%. If this negative momentum continues through tomorrow's open, the stock could hit a new 52-week low.
Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.
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