paul mcwilliams posts
FeedPosted Aug 28th 2009 1:15PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Stocks to Buy
Paul McWilliams is well-known for his in-depth and sophisticated analysis of tech stocks in his Next Inning newsletter.
In addition to corporate metrics, he places strong emphasis on superior management. Regarding integrated circuit manufacturer Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI), he notes, "CEO Jerald Fishman really knows how to run a company."
"The numbers posted by Analog Devices and the guidance provided for its fiscal fourth fiscal quarter of 2009 (ends October 2009) were both impressive. And, when taken together, exceeded my expectations.
"As I had expected, there was an inventory adjustment that resulted in a sequential decline in excess of 18% in its shipments to Chinese wireless infrastructure suppliers.
Continue reading Sharp management boosts Analog Devices (ADI)
Posted Jul 16th 2009 10:20AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Earnings reports, Intel (INTC), Newsletters, Stocks to Buy
Strong results for Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) came as a surprise to Wall Street; not to tech sector specialist Paul McWilliams, who has been adamant in his forecast that the company would exceed expectations.
In his Next Inning newsletter, designed for the tech-savvy investor. the advisor suggests that the story behind Intel's success is very simple and can be summed up in the expression "x86 everywhere." Here's his assessment.
"To a great extent, Intel's Q2 report proves that Wall Street wasn't only wrong about INTC, but wrong in a big way as to how the tech industry has managed the sharp downturn that unfolded during the last nine or so months.
"While The Street expected tech companies to react as they have in the past by adapting too slowly and stuffing supply channels with tons of inventory, tech companies demonstrated they learned lessons in 2001- 2002 and immediately clamped the supply lines and held back production while channel inventory was digested.
Continue reading Intel (INTC): 'x86 everywhere'
Posted Apr 13th 2009 2:40PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Management, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Intel (INTC), Motorola (MOT), Newsletters, Stocks to Buy
In addition to his in-depth analysis of technical and fundamental metrics, tech sector expert Paul McWilliams pays strong attention to the quality of management in his assessment of technology stocks.
In a special report from his Next Inning newsletter, he looks to a trio of tech players that he recommends as "strategic investments" based in large part on the quality of their chief executive officers.
Here's his look at Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) and Motorola (NYSE: MOT). explaining why their respective CEOs are the right people for the job.
Continue reading Tech strategy: Buy companies with the best CEOs - Intel, HP, and Motorola
Posted Feb 24th 2009 12:10PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Newsletters, Stocks to Buy, Garmin Ltd (GRMN)
"Though I've long believed Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN) was easily the best managed firm in the GPS space, it continues to feel the sting from competitive forces," says Paul McWilliams.
Here, the technology stock specialist and editor of Next Inning reviews the company and the prospects for its new entry in the cell phone market -- the nuvifone.
"As you would expect, the nuvifone is very GPS-centric with all sorts of Geo-tagging features for email, SMS and pictures. It also includes an Opera browser and is fully capable of viewing Word, Excel and PowerPoint documents and working with both personal and enterprise email systems.
"While I've not seen one in person yet, what I've heard from those who have and from what I've seen on the GRMN web site, I think the product has potential.
"The key, however, will be how the nuvifone is marketed and how well GRMN does in building an applications store, a factor that I think will be a huge differentiation driver as we move forward in the Smartphone sector.
Continue reading Garmin (GRMN): The wild card is nuvifone
Posted Jan 12th 2009 5:30PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Stocks to Buy, Best Stocks for 2009
This post is part of a special annual report -- Top Stock Picks '09 -- in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked 75 leading newsletter advisors to select their favorite investment for the new year.
"My top stock for 2009 is EZChip Semiconductor Ltd. (NASDAQ: EZCH)," says Paul McWilliams in Next Inning technology newsletter. Indeed, the advisor believes the chip stock could double in 2009.
McWillaims explains, "I came as close as I've ever come to 'pounding the table' when first recommending EZCH when the stock was trading in the $6's and I continue to believe the stock provides a very attractive balance between risk and potentially high rewards from its current price in the mid-$11's.
"EZCH has captured designs at tier one and tier two networking companies with its innovative and highly pipelined network processor (NPU) and I believe is set to do the same with its soon-to-be-released NPU aimed at the access markets.
"These design wins have been several years in the making and the products, which include the wildly successful Juniper (JNPR) MX series of routers and are just now building momentum.
Continue reading Top Stock Picks '09: EZChip (EZCH)
Posted Jan 7th 2009 2:00PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Stocks to Buy, Best Stocks for 2009
This post is part of a special annual report -- Top Stock Picks '09 -- in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked 75 leading newsletter advisors to select their favorite investment for the new year.
"Harmonic (NASDAQ: HLIT) is the largest pure play in the critical video head-end infrastructure market," says tech guru Marcie Martin.
In Next Inning advisory service, she looks at his top pick for 2009, with "a solid balance sheet, excellent prospects for continued profitability and an attractive valuation."
The advisor explains, "Harmonic leads the world in HD encoding technology as well as a number of software-centric head-end technologies.
"It is also leading the world in the emerging Universal EDGE QAM markets with a new product that provides not only traditional EDGE QAM functions, but also adds Modular CMTS (M-CMTS) for DOCSIS 3.0 and SDV (Switched Digital Video).
"Following its leadership change in late 2005, HLIT has produced a record nine straight profitable quarters and boosted its gross profit margin from 35% in Q4 2005 to over 50% in its last reported quarter.
Continue reading Top Stock Picks '09: Harmonic (HLIT)
Posted Sep 11th 2008 10:45AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Intel (INTC), Newsletters, Stocks to Buy, Technology
"The decline in the price of Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) is disconcerting, but on balance, not a surprise," says tech guru Paul McWilliams.
Here, in his Next Inning newsletter, the advisor reassesses his forecast for Intel and the tech sector made at the start of the year, and his continued optimism for the stock's future performance.
"In January, I initially concluded that mature global economies were likely going to exhibit slow growth in 2008 and may dip through a recession.
"However, I also had forecast that emerging economies were large enough to where their contributions, even though they would also probably see some slowing in 2008, would keep aggregate growth high enough to avoid any serious worldwide macroeconomic pain.
"My conclusion was that while it is normal to expect spending by governments, businesses, and consumers to follow GDP patterns, there are what I saw then and still see now as good reasons to believe there would be a preference given for tech.
"In other words, my belief was then and still is today that spending on certain tech sectors would hold stronger than normal in the face of aggregate GDP slowing.
Continue reading 'Reload' your portfolio with Intel (INTC)
Posted Aug 29th 2008 10:40AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Stocks to Buy, Technology
This post is part of a report entitled "Six-pack of technology favorites." You can read about the other top tech stock picks here.
"I think Wall Street has made a poor assessment of Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI)," says Paul McWilliams. Here's a look at the chip maker from his technology-focused newsletter, Next Inning.
"Analog Device's top line guidance came in a bit below Wall Street expectations. However, I think the problems are between the Hudson and East Rivers and not in Norwood, Massachusetts, the hometown of Analog.
"What Wall Street appears to be missing is that since ADI has sold off some of its lower profit business units, its seasonal sales patterns have changed. ADI is now again driven by industrial market sectors much more than it was even just last year.
"Therefore, its conservative guidance of flat to up 3% sequentially shouldn't have been a big surprise nor a cause for concern. As a matter of fact, with its minimal exposure to PC and consumer markets, I think flat to up 3% is pretty good.
"What Wall Street would be better to focus on are the operational improvements ADI has made. In its July quarter, ADI improved its pro forma operating margin to 26.5% from 26.2% last quarter and again reduced its inventory, which sits now at the lowest level we've seen since 2004.
Continue reading In the chips with Analog Devices (ADI)
Posted Aug 28th 2008 5:15PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Cisco Systems (CSCO), Newsletters, International Business Machines (IBM), Broadcom Corp'A' (BRCM), Stocks to Buy
With concerns over recession, turmoil in the financial sector, fear of rising rates, high market volatility and a rising aversion to risk, many investors have been avoiding technology stocks.
Investors have feared that these economic headwinds will dampen both consumer spending for technology products and reduced capital expenditures for technology in the corporate sector.
Despite these concerns, some of the newsletter industry's leading advisors are looking beyond the current malaise and seeing longer-term value in some of the tech sector's leading players. They believe that much of the "bad news" is already reflected in the price of the shares, with little recognition being given to their longer-term potential.
For those willing to go against the crowd and buy, as they say, "while blood is running in the street," we offer a six-pack of technology stocks that the some top advisors considers to be among their favorite ideas.
Continue reading A six-pack of technology favorites
Posted May 16th 2008 10:22AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)
In Next Inning newsletter, technology stock guru Paul McWilliams sees weakness in Hewlett Packard (NYSE: HPQ) as an opportunity to buy "one of the best-managed large cap tech companies in the world."
"Following Mark Hurd's appointment as CEO back in 2005, we turned cautiously bullish on the shares. It didn't take long to realize that he was not only making the right decisions, but also executing them swiftly and effectively.
"Hurd hit the ground running, trimming fat and restructuring both internal and sales channel operations. The net results were rapidly growing sales, improved profitability and a much higher stock price.
"Now, in line with our earnings preview, Hewlett Packard announced results that were better than the consensus expectation of the covering analysts; HPQ also raised its full year guidance.
"However, the real news is the company's intention to purchase EDS for $13.9 billion. The news of the acquisition has knocked the stock down to a level that represents a clear value opportunity.
"In my view, this is a brilliant move by HPQ and that the negotiated price represents a solid value for HPQ. I believe this represents an opportunity for investors to buy one of the best-managed large cap tech companies in the world at a clear value price."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
Posted Dec 25th 2007 3:30PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Stocks to Buy, Technology, Best Stocks for 2008
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of
TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"My favorite speculative pick for 2008 is QuickLogic (NASDAQ: QUIK)," says Paul McWilliams, editor of Next Inning. "This is a swing for the fence with a potential upside substantially over 100%. However, coupled with this potential upside are significant risks that investors should carefully consider.
"QuickLogic has been a niche player in the programmable logic market for nearly two decades, but due primarily to the fact that its parts could not be erased and reprogrammed, it never developed meaningful traction. However, what worked against QuickLogic in the past is now working in its favor.
"Manufacturers of battery-powered high-end consumer devices must minimize power consumption and often require instant-on capability and desire strong copy protection -- all areas where QuickLogic excels. And, even more important for QuickLogic, these customers not only couldn't care less if a part can be reprogrammed; they don't even want to deal with programming it once.
Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: Fast growth at QuickLogic (QUIK)
Posted Dec 18th 2007 9:15AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Internet, Intel (INTC), Newsletters, Stocks to Buy, Technology, Best Stocks for 2008
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"My favorite conservative idea for 2008 is Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), which I consider a core holding," says Paul McWilliams, editor of Next Inning.
"INTC is the number one semiconductor company in the world and if we exclude memory products, Intel manufactures more wafers on leading-edge fabrication processes than all the rest of the semiconductor industry combined.
"While its prior CEO was caught sleeping at the wheel, its new CEO, Paul Otellini, has both revitalized Intel's 'healthy sense of paranoia' and usurped the short-term architectural advantages temporarily enjoyed by its only viable competitor, Advanced Micro Devices.
"The net result is that Intel's pro forma operating profit margin has bounced back from a low of 17.7% in early 2006 to nearly 26% last quarter. Between this and the anecdotal evidence we can see in the constant barrage of advertisements we see for PCs, I think the evidence strongly suggests that Intel is again able to sell its processors at a premium when compared to Advanced Micro Devices.
Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: Inside Intel (INTC)
Posted Dec 3rd 2007 10:23AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Earnings reports, Newsletters, Stocks to Buy, Technology
"I use the term 'blowout' very sparingly," says tech expert Paul McWilliams in his Next Inning newsletter, which focuses solely on technology investing. "But even 'blowout' falls short of describing the quarter turned in by Sigma Designs (NASDAQ: SIGM)."
Indeed, the advisor notes, "I've likely described something as a 'blowout' less than ten times in the past five years. These 'waterfall' quarters don't happen often. As for Sigma, I didn't see this one coming and it's time to fix it.
"As background, SIGM makes media processor SoC (System on Chip) solutions for STB, BluRay and HD DVD, TV and various consumer devices that benefit from hooking into an IP video network.
"IPTV is an IP video network and, as a result of IPTV, we are putting these sorts of video networks in our homes. Roughly 77% of SIGM's sales last quarter were into IPTV STB applications.
"To give you an idea the magnitude of this recent surprise, SIGM's revenue for Q3 of this year (the October quarter) is closer to the forecasts most analysts had for Q4 next year than it was to what they were forecasting for the quarter just closed.
Continue reading Sigma Designs (SIGM): A 'blowout' quarter for media chips