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How should eBay grow now?

"If you want what you never had, then do what you have never done."

I don't know to whom to attribute that quote. It was on a T-shirt my niece was wearing when we went to her home for Christmas dinner. When I saw it, it hit me like a warm balmy breeze on a cold December day. Those are the simple words which I have never condensed into such a simple statement, yet they are representative of the dynamics which have colored my life. Yes, I'm that guy you never really got to know when you worked with him or went to school with him. I'm that guy who was "over there". I'm that guy who fights against conventional wisdom. It's not because I can't buy into the concepts of what already works. It's a matter of a bull headed refusal to be limited by a blind acceptance of the status quo. What already works isn't always good enough to satisfy me.

That's my position on eBay, Inc. (NYSE: EBAY). As a matter of fact, what already works over there doesn't seem to be working so well these days. I received an unofficial report today that as of Dec. 24, 2006, eBay listing count has dropped below 10 million. If that's true, it equals an over 30% decrease of average listing volume in the last quarter. This does somewhat mimic historical performance over the last three years.The most up-to-date figures that I can get which I trust are from medved up to Dec. 16, which show eBay listing volume at about 14.3 million on that date. In any case, based on my tracking of the numbers, things aren't really too good on eBay for overall listing quality and volume. The numbers over the next 30 days will tell the story as to the true effects of the eBay "revolutionaries" on that site and their future. If there is not a significant jump in listing volume beginning in January, be ready for some heads to roll.

Continue reading How should eBay grow now?

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