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Collective Brands walks all over expectations, but I'm ignoring it

Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS), operator of Payless ShoeSource and owner of the Stride Rite brand, reported Q1 earnings on Wednesday. Revenues increased 28% to $932 million. Pretty cool increase. Adjusting earnings per share for a litigation charge and an inventory issue, net income came in at $0.71 per share versus the $0.59 per share booked a year ago.

That's decent growth, but there are a couple things to consider here. First, the top line wasn't fully organic, as it includes the Stride Rite acquisition (remember that Payless ShoeSource bought out Stride Rite and became Collective Brands). Second, same-store sales did not confirm any sort of underlying healthy trend. Comps declined a nasty 6.5%. So, even though earnings expectations were beat by a wide margin according to MarketWatch (analysts seemed to think the shoe concern would do about $0.56 per share), I'm not fully impressed.

And let's go back to that litigation thing. The earnings release discusses the risk involved with an unfavorable ruling vis-a-vis the retailer's battle with Adidas. That's another strike against the company for me. From a price-action perspective, Collective Brands' stock has been rather weak as of late, and it currently sits much closer to the 52-week low than it does to the 52-week high.

Continue reading Collective Brands walks all over expectations, but I'm ignoring it

Payless (PSS) profits less

Discount shoe retailer Payless ShoeSource is now Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS), and recently acquired children's shoemaker Stride-Rite. Perhaps the split focus of trying to be both a discount and a full-price shoe store is what is causing profits to plummet. Collective Brands recently reported 2Q 2007 results. Profits dropped by 23% to just under $25 million, or diluted EPS of $0.38. Total sales were down 1%, not enough to worry, and same store sales were down 1.4%, again not enough to worry, yet. CEO Matthew Rubel blamed the downturn on weak sandal sales. Weak sandal sales in the summer? As good an excuse as any I suppose. But the fact remains the company is selling fewer shoes and making less money on those it does sell. 2Q numbers would have been even worse had the company not received $2.3 million from a lawsuit settled in its favor, and insurance payouts of $1.6 million to cover hurricane damage in 2006.

Collective Brands spent $1.8 million in 2Q 2007 on integration planning for the acquisition of Stride-Rite Shoes, an acquisition management states will have no impact, positive or negative, on earnings in 2008. Why not? What's the hold up that it will take until sometime in 2009 to figure out whether Stride-Rite was a good acquisition? $725 million of the acquisition was financed by a loan. For that kind of money in a company of this size, shareholders have a right to see what kind of bang they may or may not be getting for their investment buck.

To be fair, 2Q reporting period ended in early August, just before the big back-to-school shoe buying period. Inventory expenses was up 5.5% because the stores were stocking up in preparation for back-to-school purchases. Perhaps 3Q numbers will be more positive. Collective Brands bought back $4.6 million of its stock, 141,000 shares, in 2Q as part of a $32 million share repurchase program. This still has not helped the stock, which opened the year trading at $32.89, and now trades right around $23.20.

Is Collective Brands an opportunity for other shoe companies?

Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS) is the company that formed as a result of Payless Shoe Source's acquisition of Stride Rite. The boring, innocuous name aside, CEO Matt Rubel has pretty ambitious plans. According to the Associated Press, Collective aims to become a "a brand-building powerhouse, injecting a heavy dose of marketing savvy into a stubbornly fragmented and sleepy industry". More acquisitions are believed to be on the way.

Why is this interesting for investors? As I wrote in a recent piece, there are a a lot of very cheap-looking shoe stocks on the market right now. I have found several manufacturers and a few retailers trading at what appear to be very cheap valuations. Their cheapness combined with Collective's acquisitiveness could lead to more deals at nice premiums for investors.

While I'm not a fan of buying on essentially blind speculation of buyouts, these stocks look cheap on their own merits, and may well be good investments even without industry consolidation. But the rise of Collective Brands could make them more timely.

Analyst initiations 4-09-07: Akamai Tech & Take-Two Interactive initiated today

MOST NOTEWORTHY: NDS Group plc (NNDS), Payless ShoeSource, Inc (PSS), Southern Union Co (SUG) and Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc (TTWO) were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • B. Riley believes NDS Group (NASDAQ: NNDS) is in an attractive space with 42M digital TV subscribers, increasing competition between TV service providers and declining digital deployment costs, starting shares with a Buy rating and $66.50 target.
  • KeyBanc McDonald initiated shares of Payless ShoeSource Inc (NYSE: PSS) with a Buy rating and $42 target.
  • Calyon started Southern Union Co (NYSE: SUG) with a Buy rating and $38 target and sees positive catalysts over the next 12-18 months, including a potential takeover or monetization and the formal creation of an MLP.
  • Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ: TTWO) was started with a Hold rating at Needham. The firm finds it unlikely that shares will outperform until new management sets forth their new plan, which is expected to take 3-6 months.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

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Last updated: November 22, 2008: 02:46 AM

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