The major beneficiaries of ongoing unrest in the Middle East will include companies that have lots of oil reserves, which certainly includes Brazil's Petrobras (PBR)," notes Paul Goodwin.

The editor of Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report explains, "The company is the third largest oil and natural gas company in the world, with proven oil reserves of 14.2 billion barrels. That's an 11% year-over-year gain in reserves, the largest increase in eight years.

"If you add in probable and possible reserves, the number rises to nearly 28.5 billion barrels. Proven natural gas reserves also took a big jump in 2010, rising more than 15% to 423 billion cubic meters.

Analyst Upgrades

• Polo Ralph Lauren (RL) to neutral from underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL) to outperform from market perform at Leerink.
• Petrobras (PBR) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Silvercorp Metals (SVM) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• PROS (PRO) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Power Integrations (POWI) and Monolithic Power (MPWR) to buy from neutral at Roth Capital.
• Diodes (DIOD) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Whole Foods (WFMI) to hold from sell at Hapoalim.
• Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Sappi (SPP) to outperform from neutral at Macquarie.
• Alpha Natural (ANR) to buy from hold at BB&T.
• Watts Water (WTS) to buy from hold at Brean Murray.

This series started with five major defense contractors and six major oil companies that are worthy considerations to help your portfolio survive a global crisis (see Chasing Value: You Must Own Defense and Oil for Safety). After the first review, one stock was eliminated from consideration: Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR). The reason is in the first story.

Today we continue our analysis by examining price-to-book (P/B), price-to-cash-flow (P/CF), and dividend yield. Each stock is ranked by sector and metric from best to worst. In the end we hope to narrow down our choices for candidates that might be added to Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- The Journey Begins.

Stocks to sell that spring to mind right now are probably not in the energy sector. Crude oil prices are up 16% in six weeks. Dividend investors continue to seek out low-risk, high-yield stock picks. So you would think that the major crude oil and energy stocks are good buys right?

Wrong. The fact of the matter is that as we enter another earnings season, the numbers just aren't there for many crude oil blue chips. Even with oil prices improving right now, the ship has sailed on Q3 and those profits are all over but the counting. And as many investors will see soon, those profits may not be as healthy as many crude oil stocks would like.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Lubrizol (LZ) to Hold from Sell following the company's analyst day citing its continued pricing power in lubricants. Citi upped its target price for shares to $115 from $82.
• Janney Montgomery upgraded Viacom (VIA) to Buy from Neutral citing the company's ratings improvement, 2011 film slate, and video game pipeline. The firm has a $45 price target for shares.
• BMO Capital resumed coverage on Gammon Gold (GRS) with an Outperform from a Market Perform following the its equity issue. The firm has a $12.50 price target on the stock.
• Comerica (CMA) and First Horizon (FHN) were upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Prudential (PRU) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays.
• Itron (ITRI) was upgraded to Hold from Sell at Stifel Nicolaus.

Until recently, my largest positions were in financial stocks Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Bank of America (BAC). As a contrarian investor, I do buy on fear and sell on greed as "my pal Warren" has advised for many years. This has worked out to be very profitable over the past 18 months. However, in the past 30 days the financial stocks have dropped to second place in favor of oil and gas stocks.

I think the economic recovery is moving at a snail's pace, lowering anticipated demand for oil while gas was already depressed based on the same factors and the addition of numerous new large supplies. Add to this the mess in the Gulf of Mexico and the public's already negative sentiment about oil companies and you have the makings of depressed pricing in the sector.

Analyst Upgrades

• UBS upgraded Starbucks (SBUX) to buy from neutral, citing expectations for sales momentum. The firm raised its price target to $29 from $27.
• Piper Jaffray upgraded Sonic (SONC) two notches to overweight from underweight on expectations the company's sales and margin trends are set to improve. The firm raised its target price for shares to $12 from $8.
• BMO Capital upgraded Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI) to outperform from market perform, citing its outlook for earnings growth. The firm has a $30 target on the stock.
• Clorox (CLX) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Alexion Pharma (ALXN) was upgraded to conviction buy from buy at Goldman.
• Compellent (CML) was upgraded to buy from hold at ThinkEquity.

HSBC Holdings (HBC) closed at $55.23. HBC is expected to report Q4 EPS on March 2. March put option implied volatility is at 39, April and June puts are 34; above its 26-week average of 32, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Petrobras (PBR) closed at $41.58. PBR is expected to report Q4 EPS in early March. Crude oil futures are recently down 0.58% to $79.54 a barrel according to Bloomberg. March put option implied volatility is at 37, July is at 38; versus its 26-week average of 39, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com