Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) had, if you'll pardon the pun, a soft first quarter. The data just didn't do anything for me. The software giant, which competes with Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO), Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and IBM (NYSE: IBM), reported after the close of the regular session on Thursday. The stock was down slightly in the after-hours session, which seemed reasonable enough to me.

It's not as if some huge miss was reported. It's just that the growth rates weren't the stuff of shareholder dreams. Revenues increased 9% to about $15 billion. Earnings per diluted share came in at $0.48, and that was one penny better than what Wall Street was looking for. But it was only three pennies better than the previous year's Q1 results. So, it's not like things are shooting up like a rocket for Mr. Softy.

In addition, a look at the statement of cash flows shows a decline in net cash generated from operations. That figure decreased 43% to $3.4 billion. Plus, management is being cautious in its outlook and has issued Q2 guidance for earnings that was below what Wall Street was hoping for. Microsoft says it will probably do between $0.51 and $0.53 per share; Wall Street wanted $0.55 per share. Oh well, can't please everyone. Especially not in this time period.

Laptop computers, especially small and light ones, were supposed to be the way the computer companies kept mobile users as customers. It has worked pretty well. At most large PC companies like Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), laptops outsell desktops.

The profits from the laptop business could be under siege. Little netbooks from manufacturer in Asia, lead by Acer, are making $500 ultra-small machines that are good for e-mail and internet browsing. Beyond that, they don't do much, but many consumers don't need anything beyond those functions. The products may be a good way for Acer to get market share from larger U.S. PC companies.

In a recession, these "netbooks," are fairly attractive compared to $1,200 laptops that have a lot of features many people don't want to pay for.

According to Reuters, "Up to a third of netbook sales reflect customers ditching their old desktops and laptops, analysts say."

Dell's share price is down to $12.50 from a 52-week high of $30.77. The company and its peers do not need more competition in a world where the economy is hurting and price competition is fierce.

It does not want new competition, but it got it anyway.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Investors tend to forget that some of the world largest PC companies are based in China, lead by Lenovo and Acer. The two companies run behind Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ) in global market share. But, that may be changing in a way that the two US companies will find unpleasant.

Research firm Gartner looked at PC sales around the world during the third quarter. According to Reuters, "Overall, worldwide PC shipments rose 15 percent from last year to 80.6 million units." To no one's surprise, growth in the US was slower, up 4.6%.

HP's global market share was 18.4% and Dell's was 13.6%. Acer rose to 12.5% making it the most improved of the three compared with last year.

Acer's secret is that it is selling netbooks, small PCs which usually cost under $500. Analysts have questioned whether consumers would want these because smartphones have many of the same functions. Acer has taken the gamble of ramping up production, a potentially risky move if the customers were not out there. The decision is giving them a chance to steal a march on the larger rivals.

The Acer move may say as much about what is wrong with US PC companies as its says about what is right at Acer. There are many people, especially in emerging markets, who are not likely to be able to spend $1,000 on a computer. And, the mobility of the US PC user is improving with the success of WiFi and 3G.

Dell and HP should be concerned every time they see someone walking down the street with a netbook. It has probably been sold to them by a competitor.

Douglas A McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

In a press release issued this morning, Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) warned investors that it is "seeing further softening in global end-user demand in the current quarter."

More optimistically, the company noted that "grew unit shipments faster than the industry in the first half of calendar 2008 and expects to grow faster than the industry for the full year."

That's bad for competitors with weaker brands such as Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ). Dell is struggling to meet its growth targets in the face of weakening demand, even as it gains market share. How badly are the companies that are doing average relative to their peers doing?

Dell's press release is more of a commentary on the market than the company itself although, in pre-market trading, it helped send Dell shares down nearly 7%.

Analyst upgrades:

• Societe Generale upgraded shares of Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) to Buy from Sell as they believe the company is the European investment bank investors should own as sentiment gradually improves.
  
• Societe Generale also raised Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) to Hold from Sell as they believe it has managed the credit crisis well and that the government bailout of the GSEs will improve investor sentiment.
  
• Citigroup upgraded shares of Kimberly Clark (NYSE: KMB) to Buy from Hold as they expect the company to benefit from falling materials and energy prices. The firm raised their target to $71 from $60.
• UST Inc (NYSE: UST) was lifted at Morgan Stanley to Equal Weight from Underweight.
  
• Corning (NYSE: GLW) was upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight at Thomas Weisel.

Analyst downgrades:

• Credit Suisse downgraded the U.S. Homebuilders sector to Market Weight from Overweight to reflect deteriorating traffic trends and higher valuations. In addition, the firm cut Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) and KB Home (NYSE: KBH) to Neutral from Outperform.

Readers of this space know that my investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and which have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. In general, turnaround and business model change plays are avoided, but there are exceptions to the rule, and one is Corning.

Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW), once a reliable but slow-growth kitchenware and cookware company, today represents one of the signature corporate transformation stories of the digital age.

Corning is one of the leading providers of fiber-optic cable, which the company invented more than 30 years ago. Further, its substrates business did not draw Wall Street's attention until technological advances enabled the price-competitive production of flat panel displays in flat panel televisions, desktop monitors and notebook computers.

When Dell, Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) releases quarterly results Thursday how will it do? Dell has managed to quickly enter the consumer retailer market, which has helped it stave off the more valiant Hewlett-Packard Corp. (NYSE: HPQ) from running away with just about ever retailer PC sale these days. But investors are bound to say, "that was yesterday -- what have you done for me today?"

Analysts are expecting the company to report earnings of 33 cents per share on revenue of $15.66 billion, according to Thomson Reuters. Although Dell announced a $1 billion share buyback plan just a few months ago, it needs to all it can to not let its stock price implode. The growth may be over (permanently), and the brand may not be the premier name it once was. Add that to the fact that the competition (most notably H-P) enjoys every cost savings Dell once did, and the picture become way less rosy.

Does Dell have any angles left? From a fundamental PC selling standpoint, it's hard to make that argument. In terms of Micheal Dell's famous comment that Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) should be sold off in pieces and money returned to shareholders. My, my how the tables have turned. Still, Dell is not going anywhere fast and its stock price could be languishing in the dust for quite some time.

This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.

Going by ad campaigns alone, you would think that every person -- or, at least every cool person -- had abandoned their Windows PCs and hoisted themselves onto the Macintosh bandwagon. Not so. The truth is that PCs far outnumber Macs in the market. The big-business worlds of finance, law, medicine use predominantly PC, while the areas of video production, web design and art use Mac. These computers do most of the same things (play games and DVDs, word-process, create web pages, store and play music) but they are completely different operating systems. Even though Apple computers now include the Intel processor that makes it possible to use Windows-only applications, it can still be hard to compare products.

But what about the companies themselves? What does the Apple brand signify that the Dell brand does not? And vice versa.

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL): Providing innovative products and a user-friendly interface, Apple has turned the whole computer thing into a fashion accessory. For someone who used Dell products for years and then switched to Mac, the difference is like night and day. A Mac is so easy to use. With a clean interface, a near-universal compatibility with external products and tools, these computers are a beautiful breeze. And now that Macs include Intel processors, one can switch back and forth between a Windows interface and a Mac interface, making previous incompatibilities (software, games, etc.) now perfectly compatible. And when it comes to customer service (see below) Apple really socks the house.

Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. With this in mind, Intel is worth an evaluation.

Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) is the world's largest semiconductor maker, as measured by revenue and unit shipments, and is the dominant microprocessor manufacturer for personal computers.

In general, analysts expect F2008 revenue to increase 5-7%, after an 8% increase in F2007. The conventional wisdom in semiconductor analysis land now suggests that smaller/more-portable computer forms and media-rich PDAs will drive strong PC and PDA microprocessor sales.

Further, Intel remains the leader in next-generation chip technology, and its product mix remains superior. Gross margins should increase, as a result of lower unit costs and improved plant utilization. Also, high-performance chip prices should increase noticeably.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Once thought to be extremely safe, action rate securities have proved difficult to sell in this credit crisis. Tech companies are big holders of them and are taking charges left and right, including MetroPCS Communications Inc (NYSE: PCS), Palm Inc (NASDAQ: PALM) and Earthlink Inc (NASDAQ: ELNK), according to the Wall Street Journal.
• Electronic Arts Inc (NASDAQ: ERTS) is again urging Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (NASDAQ: TTWO) to negotiate after it recommended that its stockholders not sell any of its shares to EA and help its $2B takeover bid, the Financial Times reported.

OTHER PAPERS:

• NYSE Euronext Inc (NYSE: NYX) will look to increase its stakes in India's National Stock Exchange and the country's Multi Commodity Exchange, the Business Standard reported, once foreign ownership rules are eased. NYSE Euronext also intends to partner with the two Indian exchanges in order to help them develop their business.

WEB SITES:

• Business Week reported that Brian Marckx of Zacks Investment Research said Bristol Myers Squibb Company (NYSE: BMY) may be an attractive takeover candidate for a larger pharma such as Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) or France's Sanofi-Aventis SA (NYSE: SNY), both of which have been partners with Bristol on some of its products.

Big China PC company Lenovo did something that Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) won't. According to Reuters, it "beat expectations by nearly tripling quarterly earnings, riding strong demand for PCs in Asia."

Lenovo would like to get into the business of selling more PCs in the US, but it may be lucky that it does not have too much exposure here. The company gets about 40% of its revenue from China.

The news is a reminder that US PC companies may have a hard time this year. While they sell PCs overseas, they do not have a dominant position in the world's most populated country. In the US and Europe they are up against a resurgent Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and products from Taiwan PC company Acer.

Lenovo may do well this year. US PC companies are another matter.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) wants to sell PCs at retail outlets, but it does not want to take away some of the customers who buy its products on the internet. And the company can't have it both ways.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "As Dell broadens from just selling its wares directly over the internet and by phone, it risks siphoning off its web customers, who represent the majority of its consumer sales."

Taking such a gradual approach may hurt the company. Most of Dell's competitors, including HP (NYSE: HPQ) and Lenovo, offer a very broad set of products through most consumer electronics retailers. Even Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) now sells though some large stores.

Since Dell is losing market share to most of the other large PC manufacturers, its philosophy of holding back some of its product line is puzzling. HP is now the leading vendor of computers in the U.S., and recent research shows that Apple is picking up substantial market share.

Trying to decide which products will be offered to consumers at retail and which will be seen only on Dell's website seems to be a complex formula that may only result in lower sales.

The consumer wants what he wants when he wants it. Making it harder for him to buy is a bad idea.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Lenovo, the Chinese PC company, is known for producing good laptops for businesses. But with Mac sales moving up sharply, going after Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) seems too hard to resist.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "As with many of its competitors, Lenovo is emphasizing design and style, and trying to turn notebooks into fashion accessories that reflect individual personality." Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) and HP (NYSE: HPQ) are also coming out with fancy, feature-full PCs.

The problem, of course, is that the field for Mac-like computers will become crowded very quickly. That leads to the question of whether the PCs will be able to get some market share from the Mac or actually just compete with one another.

The success of the new computers will depend on several things. One is whether consumers are willing to use Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Vista over the Apple OS, which has gotten very good reviews. Another is whether the new PCs can match most of the attractive design features of the Mac.

But the most important factor may be price. If PC manufacturers can bring most of the Mac's features to market for several hundred dollars less per machine, then they have a chance.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal reported that in a list released last night by the FCC, Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG), Cablevision Systems Corporation (NYSE: CVC) and other "nontraditional" players are set to compete against more traditional wireless companies like Qualcomm Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM) and MetroPCS Communications Inc (NYSE: PCS) in the federal government's spectrum auction next month.

OTHER PAPERS:

• Banks that include Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (NYSE: MER) and The Bear Stearns Companies Inc (NYSE: BSC) are reportedly in talks to help bail out struggling bond insurer ACA Capital Holdings, which lost $1B in the most recent quarter, according to two people briefed on the situation and reported by the New York Times; ACA Capital has guaranteed $26B in mortgage securities.
• Executives at Tribune Company (NYSE: TRB) were faced with last-minute questioning from bankers that were reluctant to fund the final portion of the $8.2B deal to take the company private, according to sources close to the company, the Chicago Tribune reported.

WEB SITES:

• Barron's Online's "Inside Scoop" reported that analysts are not convinced that the deal with Citadel is enough to save E*Trade Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: ETFC), as it does not eliminate E*Trade's $12.4B second-lien mortgage exposure, and the company could potentially face further customer attrition, which many think will continue to pressure the shares.

Reuters makes the argument that strong numbers from HP (NYSE: HPQ) will cause the market to expect more from Dell (NASDAQ: DELL). The news service says HP "results may raise the bar for competitor Dell, which is more vulnerable to U.S. economic woes and reports earnings next week." Dell does get 85% of its sales from the U.S. market.

Wall Street is not so stupid that it has missed the vulnerability in the Dell model. HP's shares are up more than 20% so far this year. Dell's are only up 5%.

Dell only needs to report very modest numbers to please investors. Its new program to sell to consumers through retail outlets is only a year old and its push into key markets like China is in the early stages.

The question investors will have for Dell management is: what does 2008 look like? If the PC company cannot begin to pick up shares from HP, Lenovo, and Acer by then, the turnaround is no turnaround. It will have turned out to be a nice try.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.