Analyst Upgrades

• Molycorp (MCP) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Humana (HUM), HealthSpring (HS) and UnitedHealth (UNH) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Williams Cos. (WMB) to conviction buy from neutral and UBS (UBS) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• China Kanghui (KH) to overweight from neutral at Piper Jaffray.
• Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Armstrong World (AWI) to buy from hold at BB&T.
• Time Warner (TWX) to buy from hold at Benchmark Co.
• Calpine (CPN) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• 3M Company (MMM) to neutral from underperform and Kirby (KEX) to buy from underperform at BofA/Merrill.

Analyst Upgrades

• JPMorgan upgraded Dollar Tree (DLTR) to neutral from underweight and $48 price target.
• Credit Suisse upgraded Time Warner Cable (TWC) to outperform from neutral and raised its price target to $70 from $59, citing growth in wireline HST demand.
• Needham upgraded NetScout (NTCT) to buy from hold with a $29 price target, citing channel checks that indicate industry spending on network monitoring software may be improving.
• Nstar (NST) was upgraded to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Novo Nordisk (NVO) was upgraded to hold from sell at Societe Generale.
• Air France-KLM (AFLYY) was upgraded to neutral from underperform at Credit Suisse.

Most of the S&P 500 companies have already reported earnings results for the most recent quarter. But scheduled to release their results this week are Medtronic (MDT) and Novell (NOVL), which analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect to post earnings per share (EPS) about same as last year, as well as JDS Uniphase (JDSU), Patterson Companies (PDCO) and Tiffany & Co. (TIF), for which analysts foresee year-over-year earnings growth. Of these, the expectations are highest for Tiffany.

During the three months that ended in July, Tiffany launched an iPhone app and increased its quarterly dividend. Analysts expect the New York-based specialty retailer to report that earnings per share came to 53 cents, a 26.4% increase from a year earlier. Second-quarter revenue is expected to have grown 12.8% to $690.8 million. So far, analysts predict full-year earnings of $2.61 per share (+22.9%) on $3.0 billion (+11.8%) in revenue. Earnings results topped consensus estimates in four of the past five quarters, by 11 cents per share in the first quarter.

Estee Lauder (NYSE: EL) closed at $37.64. EL is scheduled to report Q4 EPS on August 13. EL August 35 straddle is priced at $3.50, September 35 straddle is at $4.50. EL September option implied volatility of 44 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement after EPS.

Patterson Companies (NASDAQ: PDCO) closed at $25.46. PDCO, a distributor of dental and veterinarian products, is scheduled to report Q1 EPS on August 20. August option implied volatility is at 53, September is at 37; verses its 26-week average of 41 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement after EPS.

Options Update: Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Patterson Companies, Virgin Media and MannKind were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Patterson (NASDAQ:PDCO) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Baird, as the firm's checks indicate industry fundamentals have softened and it sees greater near-term risk for dental consumables than dental equipment.
  
• Virgin Media (NASDAQ:VMED) was cut to Hold from Buy at Jefferies as they believe the company's results could be under pressure given the continued competitive activity and potential weakening of the UK economy.
  
• Piper downgraded shares of MannKind (NASDAQ:MNKD) to Neutral from Buy and lowered their target to $1.50 after Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) discontinued inhaled insulin Exubera due to an increase in lung cancer cases.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Lehman cut Cheniere Energy (LNG) to Equal Weight from Overweight.
  
• Pantry (PTRY) was cut to Market Perform from Outperform at Friedman Billings.
  
• JP Morgan lowered Watsco (WSO) to Neutral from Overweight.

Just because a company is in the health are field, it doesn't mean it's a buy. That's because investors have figured out that future demand for a product does not translate into unexpectedly high profit for the companies that meet the demand.

Obviously demand for medical products and services is going to rise as 77 million baby boomers age. But that demand does not necessarily translate into making money -- either in the product or stock markets. Why not? Because the competition is fierce. Not only are rivals going after each other with aggressive marketing but in many cases the government or pharmacy benefit managers are the buyers. And these buyers cap prices -- often at levels that make it difficult for suppliers to make a decent profit.

Furthermore, companies in this industry must invest considerable amounts in R&D to develop new products since they can't rely on profits from products that lose patent protection due to competition from generics. And the success rates of those R&D efforts seem to be dropping -- leaving many competitors with high costs, declining revenues, and uncertain futures.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Warner Music Group Corp (WMG), Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc (RRGB) and Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK.A) were some of today's notable upgrades:

• Pali Capital upgraded shares of Warner Music Group Corp (NYSE: WMG) on valuation.

• Matrix USA upgraded Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (NASDAQ: RRGB) to Hold from Sell on valuation.

• Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE: BRK.A) was upgraded to In Line from Underperform at Fox-Pitt, Kelton.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• UBS upgraded ARM Holdings plc (NASDAQ: ARMHY) to Buy from Neutral as the firm believes the company will be a significant beneficiary of the acceleration in 3G handset adoption in 2007.

• Wachovia upgraded Pactiv Corp (NYSE: PTV) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation.

• Baird raised Patterson Companies (NASDAQ: PDCO) rating to Outperform from Neutral.

• BMO Capital raised UCBH Holdings, Inc (NASDAQ: UCBH) rating to Outperform from to Market Perform.

• O2Micro International Ltd (NASDAQ: OIIM) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Oppenheimer citing a possible near-term court settlement with Samsung, which provides significant earnings leverage.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).