Analyst upgrades

• Baird upgraded Con-Way (NYSE: CNW) and Old Dominion (NASDAQ: ODFL) to Outperform from Neutral due to the benefits of a likely bankruptcy of YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW). Old Dominion's target was raised to $40 from $26 and Con-Way's was raised to $42 from $22.
• Citigroup upgraded Pride International (NYSE: PDE) to Hold from Sell as it believes higher valuation levels are warranted with the upcoming spin-off of Seahawk Drilling. Citi raised its target on shares to $25 from $18.
• Jesup & Lamont upgraded FedEx (NYSE: FDX) to Buy from Hold with a $63 target as it believes the worst is largely behind the company.
• Hewitt Associates (NYSE: HEW) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan.
• ArvinMeritor (NYSE: ARM) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
• Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at SunTrust.

Among all the negative economic data that came out last week was a positive surprise: retail sales were higher in January. A fluke or a glimmer at the end of the tunnel? That may depend on whether we see any positive surprises arising from items on this week's economic calendar:

• Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference: Monday through Friday
• NY Empire Manufacturing Index (Feb. 2009): Tuesday, 8:30 AM
• NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb. 2009): Tuesday, 1:00 PM
• Fed's Bullard speaks before National Association of Business Economists: Tuesday, 1:00 PM
• Housing starts (Jan. 2009): Wednesday, 8:30 AM
• Fed's Pianalto speaks before Commercial Developers Power Breakfast: Wednesday, 9:00 AM
• Industrial production (Jan. 2009): Wednesday, 9:15 AM
• Fed's Bernanke speaks before National Press Club Luncheon: Wednesday, 12:30 PM

Analyst upgrades:

• Oppenheimer assumed coverage of Sohu (NASDAQ:SOHU) and upgraded shares to Outperform from Perform as they believe the company is better positioned in an uncertain economy. The firm thinks strength in online games could lead to EPS upside and raised their target to $61 from $53.
  
• Allegiant (NASDAQ:ALGT) was upgraded to Buy from hold at Jesup & Lamont on valuation following the recent weakness.
  
• Suntrust upgraded Prosperity Bancshares (NASDAQ:PRSP) to Buy from Neutral based on valuation. The firm maintains a $30 target on shares.
• LaBranche (NYSE:LAB) was upgraded to Buy from Sell at Goldman.
  
• AU Optronics (NYSE:AUO) was raised to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC.
• Core Laboratories (NYSE:CLB) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.

Analyst downgrades:

• Jefferies downgraded shares of BPZ Resources (AMEX:BPZ) to Underperform from Hold as they believe the decline in oil prices and the uncertain credit markets has placed considerable pressure on the company's operations in northwest Peru. The firm maintains a $5 target on the stock.
  
• UBS downgraded StatoilHydro (NYSE:STO) and Repsol SA (NYSE:REP) to Neutral from Buy as they expect 2009 to be a difficult year for European oil and gas companies.
  
• Bernstein downgraded Heinz (NYSE:HNZ) to Market Perform from Outperform and lowered their target to $42 from $62 citing foreign exchange impact and commodity pressures.
• Blackstone Group (NYSE:BX) was downgraded to Underweight from Overweight at Barclays.
  
• Siemens (NYSE:SI) was lowered to Neutral from Buy at Banc of America/Merrill.
  
• Pride International (NYSE:PDE) was cut to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.

Analyst initiations:

• Kaufman Bros. believes GT Solar's (NASDAQ:SOLR) equipment orders are at a bottom and that shares are undervalued. Shares were initiated with a Buy rating and $7 target.
  
• Jefferies assumed L-1 Identity (NYSE:ID) with a Buy rating and $11 target. The firm believes concerns over the company's sensitivity to government budget priorities and elevated levels of debt are overdone.
  
• JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) was started at Keefe Bruyette with a Market Perform rating and $30 target. Keefe Bruyette sees limited catalysts for the stock as they expect credit headwinds and subdued investment banking revenues to persist over the near-term.
• Legg Mason (NYSE:LM) and T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ:TROW) were initiated with an Equal Weight rating at Barclays.
  
• Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:ERTS) was initiated at Janney Mongtomery with a Neutral rating.
  
• Friedman Billings reinitiated U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) with an Underperform rating and $17 target.

Analyst upgrades:

• JP Morgan upgraded shares of Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) to Overweight from Neutral as they believe the company's market share gains in the e-commerce sector will continue and that new product lines are adding diversification of revenue streams.
  
• Wachovia upgraded Leap Wireless (NASDAQ:LEAP) to Outperform from Market Perform citing new market launches that should drive subscriber growth and reduced ARPU deterioration.
  
• Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of Pride International (NYSE:PDE) to Buy from Hold as they believe investors will view the stock as a pure deepwater play beginning in Q2.
• PDL BioPharma (NASDAQ:PDLI) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan.
  
• Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
  
• Altera (NYSE:ALTR) was upgraded at Wachovia to Outperform from Market Perform.

Analyst downgrades:

• Keefe Bruyette downgraded Southside Bancshares (NASDAQ:SBSI), Prosperity Bancshares (NASDAQ:PRSP), Cullen/Frost (NYSE:CFR) and BancFirst (NASDAQ:BANF) to Underperform from Market Perform on valuation and the weakening economic outlook in the Southwest.
  
• Oppenheimer cut Varian Medial (NYSE:VAR) to Perform from Outperform as they believe U.S. hospitals could reduce capital spending budgets by 15%-25% in 2009.
  
• Dress Barn (NASDAQ:DBRN) was lowered to Neutral from Buy at SunTrust based on valuation and lack of near-term catalysts.
• JetBlue (NASDAQ:JBLU) was downgraded at Jesup & Lamont to Hold from Buy.
  
• Credit Suisse cut Novellus (NASDAQ:NVLS) to Underperform from Neutral.
  
• Helen of Troy (NASDAQ:HELE) was downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.

Analyst initiations:

• Merriman initiated Capstone Turbine (NASDAQ:CPST) with a Neutral rating and finds the stock fairly valued at current levels.
  
• Leerink sees a high likelihood that Momenta's (NASDAQ:MNTA) lead product candidates M-Enoxaparin and M-356 clear regulatory and legal hurdles. The firm has an Outperform rating and $16 fair value estimate on shares.
  
• NCI (NASDAQ:NCIT) was initiated with a Market Perform rating at Wachovia based on valuation.
• Teradyne (NYSE:TER) was assumed at Barclays with an Overweight rating and $6 target.

While other earnings may have disappointed last week, the news was good for oil giant ConocoPhilips (NYSE: COP). In what some took as a good sign for big oil, the Houston-based company reported that third quarter net income surged 41% year over year to $3.39 per share, and that revenue also surged 52% to $70 billion. We'll see whether the good news extends to other petroleum giants scheduled to report quarterly results this week.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are looking for BP (NYSE: BP) profits to have grown 43.2% in the most recent quarter to $2.34 per share on revenue of $109.7 billion, and Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) to post earnings up 39.4% to $3.25 per share on revenue of $86.8 billion. Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO), ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) likewise are expected to report higher net income of $2.33 per share (sales of $23.4 billion), $2.40 per share (sales of $131.4 billion), and $2.65 per share, respectively. Even Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) is expected to post earnings slightly higher to $1.46 per share (sales of $36.4 billion), despite the effects of Hurricane Ike. Among these companies, only BP and Valero beat earnings expectations in the previous quarter. Not surprisingly, analysts on average recommend buying all except Valero, and shares of all of these companies have recently hit 52-week lows.

It's time to start drilling for oil and natural gas offshore on the east and west coasts. We are wasting our time and our money, and risking our future by not doing so. The energy needs of the United States have made oil our number one import and the biggest factor in our imbalance of trade.

It is not just that oil holds us hostage to the rest of the world. This imbalance of trade means we cannot support ourselves and must borrow from others to get by, and I, for one, have a very hard time with that notion. I prefer independence -- remember that? I think it was an important concept in our founding, way back when.

The imbalance in trade is a mortgage against the future of our children and it is getting worse year after year. The money often goes to foreign governments whose interests are not aligned with ours and they hold us politically and economically captive. Nothing is more shameful than President Bush pleading with Saudi Monarchs to pump more oil.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: First Solar, Pride International and EnerSys were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Friedman Billings downgraded First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) to Underperform from Market Perform citing margin risk concerns, as the company aggressively pursues utility-scale projects in the US. The firm said risks are not reflected in share valuation near $300 and could be a source of disappointment but could also lead to downside EPS risk.
  
• Wachovia said Pride International (NYSE: PDE) has the least potential EPS upside vs. peers given the company has contracted the highest percentage of its floater days into 2012E. Additionally, the firm views a takeout by Seadrill as unlikely. Shares were cut to Underperform from Market Perform.
  
• Merriman downgraded shares of EnerSys (NYSE: ENS) to Neutral from Buy as they believe the strong Q4 results were driven by a one-time benefit from lead procurement mechanics and that data does not support the company's sustained margin expansion story.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Citigroup lowered Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU) to Hold from Buy.
  
• UBS downgraded Nucor (NYSE: NUE) to Neutral from Buy.
  
• Smart Modular (NASDAQ: SMOD) was downgraded at Oppenheimer to Perform from Outperform.
  
• The Airlines Sector was cut by Soleil to Neutral from Outperform.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: MedicNova, Transocean and Lennox were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Rodman & Renshaw is positive on MedicNova's (NASDAQ:MNOV) two primary products in development: MN-221, for the treatment of severe asthma and MN-166, an oral treatment for multiple sclerosis. The firm is also positive on MNOV's valuation; shares were initiated with an Outperform rating and $9 target.
  
• Transocean (NYSE:RIG) is UBS's Top Pick as they believe it is the primary beneficiary of rising deepwater dayrates. Shares were assumed with a Buy rating and $201 target.
  
• Suntrust initiated Lennox (NYSE:LII) with a Neutral rating and cites near-term visibility.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Dean Foods (NYSE:DF) was initiated with an Outperform rating and $29 target.
  
• Goldman started Parker-Hannifin (NYSE:PH) with a Neutral rating and $92 target.
  
• UBS assumed Hercules Offshore (NASDAQ:HERO) and Pride International (NYSE:PDE) with Neutral ratings and targets of $35 and $49, respectively.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Genitope Corp, Discover Financial and Mine Safety Appliances were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Genitope Corp (NASDAQ: GTOP) was downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital following MyVax's failure to meet its Phase III trial endpoint.
  
• Calyon downgraded shares of Discover Financial (NYSE: DFS) to Neutral from Buy citing the weak macro environment.
  
• Soleil downgraded Mine Safety Appliances (NYSE: MSA) to Hold from Buy at Soleil on valuation..

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Morgan Stanley downgraded Vale do Rio Doce (NYSE: RIO) to Equal Weight from Overweight.
  
• Keefe Bruyette downgraded Popular (NASDAQ: BPOP) to Underperform from Market Perform.
  
• Calyon downgraded Pride International (NYSE: PDE) to Neutral from Add.

Having just shed its land-based oil exploration division, Pride International Inc. (NYSE: PDE) is now focusing only on offshore drilling for oil. According to a recent report from Goldman Sachs, this move puts PDE's stock price in a position to grow significantly even while the report claimed the outlook is down for offshore drilling as a whole.

According to the Goldman report, PDE's assets have been undervalued by the market, and there's a potential for backlogs to grow and increase profitability. This report expects profits, which have been growing steadily along with revenues, to grow even more over the next year as costs come down.

It's not just the Goldman analysts who have been paying attention to this stock. PDE has recently undertaken contracts to build two new drill ships, which will give the company much more range to seek out profitable drilling areas, and the company is widely seen as a potential acquisition target. Meanwhile, getting out of Latin America frees the company from dealing with leaders like Hugo Chavez or Evo Morales.

There is no holiday break for the rumor mill as word of many a company's activity is bantered about.



BUILD-A-BEAR WORKSHOP INC (NYSE: BBW)

As the stock shot up 14% the other day, it was revealed that the warm and fuzzy big bear hired Lehman Brothers to "explore strategic alternatives." Some analysts think an LBO is what will happen, and range the valuation at from $34 to $36. Very recently the company reduced its second quarter per share profit expectations to 7 cents to 10 cents, down from 15 cents to 19 cents, because of slow sales at stores that have been opened for at least a year. Here's a bear to be bullish on.


COUNTRYWIDE FINANCIAL CORPORATION (NYSE: CFC)

It's troubled times for the nation's largest mortgage lender. Earlier in the week the shares began to fall when it was revealed that they may be a part of a government investigation into subprime loans. It certainly doesn't help that three former company executives pleaded guilty to conducting insider trading in shares of Countrywide. The heat is on.


THE STEAK N SHAKE COMPANY (NYSE: SNS)

Two Texas investment groups, HBK Investments and Lone Star Funds, who between them own about 9.5% of the company, are said to be interested in digesting the whole dang thing. The 490 restaurant chain that has operations in 20 states just saw their most recent quarterly profit drop 30% from the previous year, as same store sales fell 4.7%. Gentlemen that they are though, they'll only pursue the sizzle if the board cooks it up with them.



STILL FLYING AROUND


WENDY'S INTERNATIONAL INC (NYSE: WEN)

They say they may want to sell the company, and the latest firm to gobble up shares is Tudor Investment, purchasing a 6.1% stake.


TD AMERITRADE HOLDING CORPORATION (NASDAQ: AMTD)

Jana Partners and S.A.C. Capital Advisors, who have about an 8.4% combined ownership of AMTD, are keeping the pressure on for the firm to partner up with another brokerage firm, and have now formalized their demands.



BUZZ


DJO INCORPORATED (NYSE: DJO): MMI Investments purchased 9.4% of the company's shares. When they buy in, they usually see the company acquired...Pride International Inc (NYSE: PDE): Spin off of foreign assets, or a possible takeover, has attracted interest...Legg Mason Inc (NYSE: LM): Pershing Square Capital, whose activist leader William Ackman has tried to push around McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD) and Wendy's, has taken a 1.5% share of the company.

There was a bit of a surprise in last night's 13 D filing of Carl Icahn: He still owned Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) shares. His holdings had dropped to 12.9+ million shares from more than 20 million shares at the end of Q4 2006. It is quite possible that since this is 45 days old that he has already cleaned out of more, but the prevailing thought back in January and February was that Icahn was out of Time Warner now. Twelve million shares is actually a small drop in the bucket for such a large company and it doesn't even come close to a 1% stake. But just having the name Icahn still on the books can invoke more news stories.

So it looks like Icahn may not be completely gone and forgotten as far as Time Warner is concerned. Rather he's only partly gone. And not forgotten.

The main positions you want to look at is where Icahn has entered new stakes. His new stakes are 3.1+ million shares in Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), 2.675 million shares of CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX), and 4.588 million shares of Pride International (NYSE: PDE). We already knew about his 9.3 million share stake in Motorola (NYSE: MOT) because that was not just a passive stake.

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.