"Coal miner Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU) looks hot," says Leo Fasciocco, who focuses on stocks that have broken out from technical basing patterns.

In his The Ticker Tape Digest, he explains, "The stock rose above its break points of $81.20, hitting a new high." He adds, "With net set to surge 70% this year, we see an upside target of $105 per share."

"Peabody, based in St. Louis, is a major producer of coal with annual revenues of $4.7 billion. BTU's coal fuels more than 10% of U.S. electricity generation and 2% worldwide.

"The company has mining operations in Appalachia, the Powder River Basin, and the U.S. Southwest and Midwest, as well as Australia and Venezuela. It also markets, brokers, and trades coal, and develops electricity-generation projects.

"Technically, BTU has broken out from a six-week flat base today with expanding volume. It is part of the strong coal group, which has been one of the strongest acting sectors of the market.

With crude oil prices soaring, shares in coal and fertilizer companies have also been climbing for the past year. Barron's offers a survey of the momentum plays, pointing out some opportunities and risks when investing in coal and fertilizer stocks.

Talking about risks, Barron's underlines the fact that it can be difficult for investors to put their hard earned money into a stock that is already trading near its highs. But as they say, the trend is up unless proven otherwise, and we might take this into account when picking our trades. For example, back in April, it looked like Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) was facing technical weakness, but this did not last long and the company was able to rebound.

Now let's take a took at the coal sector. Data shows that the Dow Jones U.S. coal index gas gained more than 50% for the past year. While James River Coal Co. (NASDAQ: JRCC) has quadrupled this year, Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU) has been seeing some weakness, and this might be a sign that the sector could face tough times ahead. The first concern tied to supply and demand appeared for Peabody when we began to notice that volume on rally days slipped, while volume on declining days has increased.

"Oil prices have made the headlines recently," says Martin Hutchinson in The Money Map Reporter. "But the miracle fuel of the 19th Century is coal, the forgotten fossil fuel."

"Coal is located primarily in politically stable, friendly countries - most notably the U.S. market itself. Coal prices have zoomed northward during the past year. The current spot price is around $135 per metric ton, more than double the level of a year ago. Meanwhile, coal production is running way ahead of forecasts.

"In 2005, the World Coal Institute reported production of 4,970 million metric tons, up 78% over 25 years. The main reason for coal's growth is that 80% of China's power needs and 65% of India's come from coal-fired stations.

"Since both India and China are expected to quadruple their power consumption by 2030, most of that increase must come from coal-fired stations. What are the best buys in the sector?

"Despite its dirty image, coal accounts for more than half of US power generation," says Elliott Gue, editor of the industry leading The Energy Strategist.

The advisor explains, "Although crude oil consistently makes the headlines, few realize that US coal prices recently surged to a fresh high." Here, he reviews a new portfolio holding, Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU).

"In addition to rising domestic demand, we are also seeing foreign demand. Indeed, coal accounts for about 50% of Germany's electricity production, 34% in the UK, 17% in Italy and a whopping 93% in Poland.

"Europe doesn't have enough coal production locally to satisfy demand. And now, the problem is that traditional sources of European coal imports aren't readily available.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Goldman downgraded the coal sector to Cautious from Neutral, citing valuations and expectations for lower coal prices. The firm downgraded CONSOL Energy (NYSE: CNX) Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) to Neutral from Buy and Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) to Sell from Neutral.
  
• Lehman downgraded independent refiners, including Alon USA Energy (NYSE: ALJ), to Negative from Neutral and continues to believe that 2H07 marked an inflection point for U.S. refiners, which are transitioning from a multiyear up-cycle into a new downtrend.
  
• Alexion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ALXN) was lowered to Market Perform from Outperform at Wachovia following the company's Q4 results, as they believe management's revenue guidance represents a best-case scenario.

• Lehman lowered Bayer (OTC: BAYRY) to Equal Weight from Overweight and Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) to Underweight from Equal Weight.

The price of coal -- the most plentiful energy resource -- is rising at an alarming rate: Asia prices are up more than 30% this year, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday (subscription required), due mostly to China's net importer status. China had been a net exporter of coal, but in mid-2007 it imported coal for the first time. Coal is trading above $125 per metric ton. In 2003 it traded at about $25 per metric ton. Since January 2007 alone, coal is up more than 140%.

U.S. coal suppliers have benefited from the run-up: Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) is up about 90% since August 2007; ACI was down about $1.50 to $53.32 in Tuesday afternoon trading. Meanwhile, Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) is up about 45% since August 2007; BTU fell 40 cents to $56.12 on Tuesday afternoon.

This would seem to be a hard day to find stocks hitting new highs, but some industries produced winners.

Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE: SLW): It was a good day for metals stocks. This one ran up to $19.16 against a 52-week low of $8.83.

Southwestern Energy Company (NYSE: SWN): It was a good day for energy stocks. SWN moved higher to $58.63 from 52-week low of $31.14.

Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE: BTU): This coal company traded up to $63.97 from 52-week low of $36.20.

Apache Corporation (NYSE: APA): This oil and natural gas operator hit $111.78 compared to 52-week low of $63.01.

Akeena Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKNS): This company licensed technology to Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd.(ADR) (NYSE: STP). It moved to $11.99 from 52-week low of $2.97.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU) -- volume and volatility increases on renewed buyout chatter. BTU, the world's largest private-sector coal company, with 2006 sales of 248 million tons and $5.3 billion in revenues, is recently up $2.30 to $45.60 on unconfirmed and renewed buyout chatter. BTU's CEO Greg Boyce presented at the Lehman Brothers CEO Energy/Power Conference in New York City today. BTU call option volume of 8,070 contracts compares to put volume of 9,128 contracts. BTU September option implied volatility of 39 is above its 26-week average of 36 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

Massey Energy Corp. (NYSE: MEE) -- implied volatility of 52 is above the 26-week average of 45. MEE, the fourth largest coal company in the U.S. based on produced coal revenue, is recently up $1.44 to $22.24. MEE's Chairman & CEO Don Blankenship will present at the Lehman Brothers CEO Energy/Power Conference in New York City this afternoon.
MEE October option implied volatility of 52 is above its 26-week average of 45 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Consol Energy Inc. (NYSE: CNX) -- volatility Flat as CNX rallies on idling of mine. CNX is recently up $1.31 to $41.24. CNX announced it plans to idle its Mine 84 in Northern Appalachia because of the mine's inability to meet its targeted rate of return. Stifel Nicolaus has a Buy rating and $58 price target on CNX. STFL says, "we continue to favor CNX shares over most of its coal industry peers due to its strong coal reserve base, its favorable market position as the dominant Northern Appalachian coal miner, and its direct exposure to natural gas markets." CNX call option volume of 3,348 contracts compares to put volume of 386 contracts. CNX October option implied volatility of 41 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price risks.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Last December, over 100 stocks were featured in our Top Picks for 2007 report. Now, at mid-year, we turn to the 20 advisors whose picks showed the strongest gains to get an update on their previous picks, as well as a new favorite stock for the second half of the year.

Elliott Gue, editor of The Energy Strategist, chose Energy Metals Corporation (ASE: EMU) as his top pick for 2007. The stock has gained 100%; the company received a takeover bid from SXR Uranium One (OTC: SXRFF) on June 4, 2007.

For his new top pick, the advisor says, "One of my favorite sectors right now is coal. While coal isn't the most environmentally friendly of fuels, it accounts for more than 50% of all energy produced in the U.S. and has an even higher share in developing markets like China.

"I see little chance that coal will lose its pre-eminent status over the next decade. In addition, new uses for coal are emerging. In the U.S., the government is looking to promote the use of coal-derived liquid fuels with a series of subsidies and tax breaks; even the military is exploring the use of coal-derived fuels.

"My top play on the coal sector is Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU), the largest coal miner in the U.S. The company is spinning off its high-cost mining operations in the eastern U.S. into a separate firm.

"Meanwhile, Peabody has the largest position in the prolific and rapidly growing coal-producing basin of the West, the Powder River Basin. Even better, the company recently acquired Australia's Excel Coal -- Excel is a major exporter of Australian coal to China. Chinese coal demand is growing rapidly, and Peabody is well placed to take advantage."

same situation here...too much summary/too little analysis

In his Swing Trader portfolio, Melvin Pasternak looks for technically strong short-term trades. Among his latest "long" ideas is Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU), which explores for and mines coal and develops technologies to convert coal to fuels such as natural gas.

Pasternak bases his recommendations on rather sophisticated technical indicators such as doji candle formations, relative strength, Bollinger bands and MACD.

For those unfamiliar with these terms, one can simply note that he considers the stock both fundamentally favorable, and technically poised to move higher. He explains, "BTU has had a great run, going from near $10 a share in early 2004 to the mid-$70s in 2006. From there, BTU pulled back substantially, reaching a low of $32.81 in September 2006 before rebounding.

For the more technically-inclined, he says, "For the past several months, BTU has consolidated, establishing what appears to be a stage I base. In the last several weeks, the shares have broken out above their 30-week moving average (which is again beginning to slope upward), signaling the possible beginning of a stage II advance.

"Despite forming a doji candle, the candle remained outside the upper Bollinger band, which is a continuation signal. The relative strength line has broken a prolonged downtrend and is back above its own moving average for the first time since the summer of 2006.

"BTU has formed an ascending triangle with resistance at $50. Just above that, there is additional resistance at $52.75. ADX is on a buy signal and MACD is bullishly trading up through the zero line. My target on Peabody is $64.95 with a stop loss at $41.89."

For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free daily website, TheStockAdvisors.com.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Ford (F) and Circuit City (CC) were the most notable companies upgraded today:

• Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Merrill Lynch based on the company's liquidity-raising efforts;
• Circuit City Stores Inc. (NYSE:CC) was upgraded to Accumulate from Neutral at CL King.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• BEA Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:BEAS) was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at JMP Securities based on valuation.
• JP Morgan upgraded Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE:BTU) to Neutral from Underweight as they believe the company is protected against lower prices in 2007, having already sold most of its planned production for next year.
• Credit Suisse upgraded Heinz Company (NYSE:HNZ) to Neutral from Underperform citing improved fundamentals and earnings visibility.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• General Dynamics Corp. (NYSE:GD) was the only noteworthy company initiated today; Caris initiated the military equipment-maker with an Average rating based on valuation.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Merriman initiated Bankrate Inc. (NASDAQ:RATE) with a Buy rating; the firm said Bankrate has a number of attractive assets and competitive strengths that include a high level of direct-to-site traffic, high quality traffic, pricing leverage and strong management.
• Deutsche Bank started Color Kinetics Inc. (NASDAQ:CLRK) with a Buy rating and $23 target, as it believes Color Kinetics is an attractive play on the rapid adoption of LEDs.
• HSBC initiated Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE:BTU) and Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE:ACI) with Overweight ratings.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).