Analyst Upgrades

• BB&T (BBT) was upgraded to buy from neutral at Janney Montgomery.
• Amylin (AMLN) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Leerink.
• Wells Fargo upgraded Morton's Restaurant (MRT) to outperform from market perform.
• Check Point (CHKP) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at HSBC.
• Deutsche Bank upgraded Excel Maritime (EXM) to buy from hold.
• JinkoSolar (JKS) was upgraded to buy from hold at Auriga.
• Piper Jaffray upgraded Compellent (CML) to overweight from neutral.
• BofA/Merrill upgraded Crane (CR) to buy from neutral.
• Goldman upgraded Wisconsin Energy (WEC) to conviction buy from buy and American Electric (AEP) to buy from neutral.
• Motorola (MOT) was upgraded due to increasing carrier support by MKM Partners.
• Under Armour (UA) was upgraded to buy from neutral at Sterne Agee.

"Considering that the 73 utility stocks in the S&P 1500 Index combine to represent just 4% of the index's market value, they certainly occupy a big place in the hearts of investors," notes Richard Moroney.

The editor of Dow Theory Forecasts -- a newsletter that has been published for nearly 60 years -- explains, "Here, we offer a diversified 12-stock utility portfolio, as well as our top utility choice for investors who only wish to buy one stock in the sector.

Analyst Upgrades

• SunTrust upgraded Lennox (LII) to buy from neutral, given signs of improved residential HVAC equipment and service demand and a bottom in commercial lines. The firm has a $55 price target on the stock.
• Cowen upgraded Universal Display (PANL) to outperform from neutral. The firm expects OLED display growth to accelerate driven by increased handset and other mobile device penetration, followed by high-end TV and lighting applications.
• Canaccord upgraded Amylin (AMLN) to hold from sell following Roche's (RHHBY) delay in its Phase 3 study for taspo, a competitor to Amylin's bydureon. The firm has an $18 target on Amylin shares.
• DiamondRock Hospitality (DRH) was upgraded to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Public Service (PEG) was upgraded to conviction buy from buy at Goldman.
• QuinStreet (QNST) was upgraded to overweight on valuation at Thomas Weisel.

Analyst Upgrades

• Deutsche Bank upgraded Barrick Gold (ABX) to buy from hold and reiterates a buy rating on Newmont Mining (NEM) after upping its 2011 gold forecast to $1,450 per ounce and 2012 forecast to $1,600 per ounce. The firm upped its target for Barrick shares to $53 from $45, for Newmont shares to $74 from $72, and on hold-rated Goldcorp (GG) and Kinross Gold (KGC) to $40 and $20, respectively.
• Citigroup upgraded General Dynamics (GD) to hold from sell following the recent pullback in shares. The firm keeps a $67 price target for the stock.
• UBS upgraded Public Service (PEG) to buy from neutral and has a $34 price target on the stock. The firm cites the company's solid balance sheet, earnings profile, and valuation for the upgrade.
• News Corp. (NWS) was upgraded to buy from hold at Soleil.
• AK Steel (AKS) was upgraded to neutral from underperform.
• Progress Energy (PGN) was upgraded to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• PNC Financial (PNC) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Keefe Bruyette.

Analyst Upgrades

• FBR Capital upgraded Digital River (DRIV) to outperform from market perform on expectations the company's business activity is improving. The firm raised its price target for shares to $36 from $25.
• Cowen upgraded Carpenter Technology (CRS) to outperform from neutral, citing expectations for a restocking turnaround for the upgrade.
• Och-Ziff Capital (OZM) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at William Blair.
• Wellpoint (WLP) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at BMO Capital.
• Kohlberg Capital (KCAP) was upgraded to hold from sell at Stifel Nicolaus.

Analyst Upgrades

• JPMorgan upgraded TiVo (TIVO) to overweight from neutral as it believes Thursday's appeal win against DISH Network could lead to revenue upside. The firm raised its target price for shares to $23 from $15.
• Collins Stewart upgraded DISH Network (DISH) to buy from hold on valuation, as it believes much of the impact from the negative appeals ruling is priced into the stock. The firm has a $30 target for shares.
• Cowen upgraded Ciena (CIEN) to outperform from neutral. The firm believes Ciena's acquisition of MEN is transformative and will accelerate top line growth.
• Progress Software (PRGS) was upgraded to buy from hold at Needham.
• Allergan (AGN) was upgraded to buy from hold at Lazard Capital.
• Public Service (PEG) was upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies.

Public Service Enter (NYSE: PEG), a regulated gas & electric utility serving three-quarters of New Jersey's population, closed at $25.96. PEG April option implied volatility of 49 is near its 26-week average of 45, according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price movement.

PG & E (NYSE: PCG) serves 4.9M electricity distribution customers, and approximately 4.1M natural gas customers in California, closed at $37.52. PCG option implied volatility of 39 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Consolidated Edison (NYSE: ED) closed at $39.15. ED April option implied volatility of 32 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded shares of Liberty Property Trust (NYSE:LRY) to Hold from Sell to reflect the company's capital raises and progress on leasing over the past quarter. The firm raised their target price to $21 from $16.
  
• UBS upgraded shares of Lonmin (Other OTC:LNMIY) to Neutral from Sell as they believe Xstrata may make an offer for the company.
  
• Cantor Fitzgerald upgraded RadiSys (NASDAQ:RSYS) to Buy from Hold after the company reported better-than-expected Q4 results and provided Q1 guidance which the firm believes indicates that fiscal 2009 results will be better than expected. The firm set a target of $8.50.
• Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK) and PG & E (NYSE:PCG) were raised to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital.
  
• Techne (NASDAQ:TECH) was upgraded at Baird to Outperform from Neutral.

While other earnings may have disappointed last week, the news was good for oil giant ConocoPhilips (NYSE: COP). In what some took as a good sign for big oil, the Houston-based company reported that third quarter net income surged 41% year over year to $3.39 per share, and that revenue also surged 52% to $70 billion. We'll see whether the good news extends to other petroleum giants scheduled to report quarterly results this week.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are looking for BP (NYSE: BP) profits to have grown 43.2% in the most recent quarter to $2.34 per share on revenue of $109.7 billion, and Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) to post earnings up 39.4% to $3.25 per share on revenue of $86.8 billion. Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO), ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) likewise are expected to report higher net income of $2.33 per share (sales of $23.4 billion), $2.40 per share (sales of $131.4 billion), and $2.65 per share, respectively. Even Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) is expected to post earnings slightly higher to $1.46 per share (sales of $36.4 billion), despite the effects of Hurricane Ike. Among these companies, only BP and Valero beat earnings expectations in the previous quarter. Not surprisingly, analysts on average recommend buying all except Valero, and shares of all of these companies have recently hit 52-week lows.

Analyst upgrades:

• Wachovia upgraded shares of Exelon (NYSE: EXC) to Outperform from Market Perform to reflect the company's attractive nuclear fleets and strong operational track record.
  
• Jesup & Lamont upgraded Ormat Technologies Inc. (NYSE: ORA) to Buy from Hold on valuation and increasing visibility on near-term Products revenue.
  
• RBC Capital upgraded Memc Electronic (NYSE: WFR) to Outperform from Sector Perform on expectations of improved demand growth following the likely eight-year extension of the US solar tax credit program.
• AmBev (NYSE: ABV) was raised to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
  
• AmerisourceBergen (NYSE: ABC) was upgraded at Merrill Lynch to Buy from Neutral.
  
• Piper upgraded Anadys Pharma (NASDAQ: ANDS) to Neutral from Sell.

Analyst downgrades:

Minyanville Professor Adam Michael dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

One of the top stories on Bloomberg today discusses a problem I have highlighted multiple times in the Ville over the past year: the accelerating decline of Mexico's Cantarell oil field. The latest numbers show Cantarell oil production falling to a 12-year low. I expect the decline in production from Cantarell to only accelerate.

If I am correct, crude oil supply for the United States is going to get tighter in the coming months. Today, we found out Pemex was having problems meeting commitments to Texas refineries due to falling production. I expect this problem to get more press in the future as Cantarell production accelerates to the downside and US refiners are forced to look to an already tight oil market for additional supply.

The Commitment of Traders report comes out today due to the holiday last week. The last COT report for crude oil showed commercials net buyers (first time since February 2007) and one has to wonder why...perhaps commercial traders see the coming collapse in Mexico oil production? I have repeatedly said the COT reports are still bullish for crude and am looking forward to seeing this weeks report when it is released later today.

My favorite energy names continue to be BPZ Energy (AMEX:BZP) and Pacific Rubiales (PEG:CA), both of whom have catalysts in the next month that could move the stocks.

On a housekeeping note, the Hindenburg signal and head and shoulders patterns I highlighted in the S&P and Russell 2000 seem to be playing out. My minimum target on the S&P500 is/was about 1225, which also happens to be in the neighborhood of the 2006 lows.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Progressive, Netflix and Public Service Enterprise Group were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Wachovia upgraded Progressive (NYSE: PGR) to Market Perform from Underperform based on modest signs of improvement in underwriting trends.
  
• Lehman upgraded Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) to Overweight from Equal Weight based on strong core trends and a potential announcement of digital service partners into its May 28 investor day.
  
• Credit Suisse upgraded Public Service Enterprise Group (NYSE: PEG) to Outperform from Neutral based on earnings growth through utility investment, valuation, upside from U.S. CO2 policy.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Precision Drilling (NYSE: PDS) was raised to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital.
  
• Hertz Global (NYSE: HTZ) was upgraded at Soleil to Buy from Hold.
  
• Calyon upgraded Foundation Coal (NYSE: FCL) and Arch Coal (ACI) to Add from Neutral.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Kelly Services, Iron Mountain, Covenant Transportation and the biotech sector were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Merrill Lynch upgraded Kelly Services Inc (NASDAQ: KELYA) to Neutral from Sell and Iron Mountain Incorporated (NYSE: IRM) to Buy from Neutral after they adjusted estimates in the group to reflect risks of a recession in the U.S.
  
• AG Edwards upgraded shares of Covenant Transportation Group (NASDAQ: CVTI) to Buy from Hold as they believe the stock is oversold after the company was able to renegotiate its debt covenants without significant cost increases.
• Bernstein upgraded the biotech sector citing valuation and typical seasonality for the group. The firm reiterated shares of Amgen Inc (NASDAQ: AMGN), Genentech Inc (NYSE: DNA), Gilead Sciences Inc (NASDAQ: GILD), Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: VRTX) with Outperform ratings...

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Netflix Inc (NASDAQ: NFLX) was upgraded to Hold from Sell at Wedbush. The firm also upgraded shares of Kenexa Corporation (NASDAQ: KNXA) to Buy from Hold.
  
• Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of United Microelectronics (NYSE: UMC) to Buy from Hold.
  
• UBS upgraded shares of Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) to Buy from Neutral on valuation.
  
• Lehman Brothers upped regulated utilities to Neutral from Negative, and Public Service Enterprise Group (NYSE: PEG) and Wisconsin Energy Corporation (NYSE: WEC) to Overweight from Equal Weight.