BloggingStocks http://www.bloggingstocks.com BloggingStocks http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/media/feedlogo.gif BloggingStocks http://www.bloggingstocks.com en-us Copyright 2012 Weblogs, Inc. The contents of this feed are available for non-commercial use only. Blogsmith http://www.blogsmith.com/<![CDATA[Confusing potential with value]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/13/confusing-potential-with-value/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/13/confusing-potential-with-value/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/13/confusing-potential-with-value/#commentsFiled under: , , , ,

One of my colleagues at BloggingStocks is Georges Yared, a great growth stock picker who is well-known throughout the investing world. But from reading Mr. Yared's posts, I've found several issues with his thinking as of late.

While he does show discipline to buying below his price targets, I think that some of his ideas don't make sense for long-term investors and he neglects to explain the risks involved in the potential investments. In a recent post, Yared spoke about two of his favorite ideas: Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX).

Apple is indisputably a great company with incredible product momentum. In a recent post, I discussed why I believed Apple is quite exposed to a correction but I had no disputes with the strength of the underlying company. On the other hand, I think that Apple was, and remains, 'priced to perfection.' This simply implies that any earnings report or guidance figure which Wall Street interprets negatively will kill the stock. Analysts will be forced to cut earnings per share estimates, thus cutting price targets. To compound the problem, the multiple will be forced to contract due to 'less operating visibility' and 'signs of slowing momentum.' While this certainly isn't a definite or easily predicted event, the risk remains very viable.

Crocs is a whole different story. The creator of overpriced and ugly rubber beach shoes has been on fire in the last six months, during which it has doubled. While Crocs is similar to Apple in one regard -- it's lofty expectations from the street which it needs to exceed to justify its current price -- it's also very different. Unlike Apple, whose products will do well in any season, especially during Christmas, Crocs remains a one-hit-wonder for the summer months. Although Crocs bulls such as Mr. Yared will argue that Crocs is "the next Nike" and that the company's new winter shoes will carry the company through Q407 and Q108, I think this is probably wishful thinking.

Similar to every other fad product, proponents argue that this is not a fad and that this product is different. But as Sir John Templeton once said, "This time is different" are among the most costly four words in market history. One needs to look no further than Heelys Inc. (NASDAQ: HLYS) to see a stock that once wore the 'this time is different' fad hat.

Unfortunately for Crocs shareholders, when this company breaks it will sink ever-so-quickly. When Crocs buyers realize that their hideous, overpriced beach shoe is no longer the popular thing they will all neglect their Crocs just like they've recently done to their sneakers with wheels which were mass produced by Heelys. This problem will be compounded by the fact that Crocs has become increasingly reliant on "Jibbitz" -- plug-like themed inserts for Crocs shoes (no, I'm not joking) -- for growth. No one will want new Micky Mouse Crocs plugs when their deformed rubber shoes are collecting dust just as quickly as their fanny packs.

Story stocks and growth stocks are fun to invest in and even more fun to write about. It's nice to know that you are cashing in on the hottest trends in America. But oftentimes there's the unspoken side story to it all -- you're overpaying for this potential and when these companies cough up you stand to suffer immensely.

Confusing potential with value originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 13 Aug 2007 20:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>AAPLAppleCrocsCROXGeorges YaredGeorgesYaredHeelysHLYSpermabullMon, 13 Aug 2007 20:30:00 EST<![CDATA[The Permabull's Guide to Wall Street Lingo (Pocket edition)]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/02/the-permabulls-guide-to-wall-street-lingo-pocket-edition/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/02/the-permabulls-guide-to-wall-street-lingo-pocket-edition/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/02/the-permabulls-guide-to-wall-street-lingo-pocket-edition/#commentsFiled under: , , , ,

In case you weren't sure what certain Street terms mean, here's a short guide - from a Permabull's perspective, of course.


Analysts. Highly paid cheerleaders who figure out ways to make stocks appear cheap

Bad news. Events that cause the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates so that share prices go up

Bears. Sad, lonely people who don't appreciate why equity prices invariably move higher

Brokers. Specially-trained relationship managers who convert mere mortals into super-bulls

Bulls. Well-bred equity investors

Bond market. The place where stock market bears are sent out to pasture for their wayward views

Cash. Realized gains that equity investors spend on fancy vacations and assorted luxury items

Dividends. A positive influence on stock prices

Economy. An irrelevant side show to what happens in the equity market

Fear. An emotion that bulls experience when they are not 100% invested

Federal Reserve Board. A group of public officials who do their best to ensure that bulls are happy

Fundamentals. Anything that can help explain why stock prices rally

Greed. The only emotion that matters when it comes to playing the stock market

Hedge funds. Aggressive investors who use lots of leverage to ensure that stock prices eventually go up

Interest rates. A factor that occasionally serves as an explanation for why stocks rally

Leverage. The fail-safe strategy of using borrowed money to boost returns as share prices rise

Losses. The net result of selling short and listening to bond traders

Mutual funds. Investment vehicles that enable bulls to remain fully invested in the equity market at all times

Short-sellers. Dour individuals who scramble to cover bad bets as stock prices rally

Strategists. Highly paid cheerleaders who figure out ways to make stocks appear cheap

Wall Street. The place where bulls congregate and fawn over one another

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider's Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World.

The Permabull's Guide to Wall Street Lingo (Pocket edition) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 02 Aug 2007 15:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>equitiesfeaturedpermabullsatirestock marketThu, 02 Aug 2007 15:55:00 EST