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Consumer spending rises 0.2%... but so does inflation

Just call it a status-quo month for U.S. purchasing power.

Personal income, consumer spending and consumer prices all rose 0.2% in April 2008, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Friday -- a report that suggests the economy slowed to a crawl as tax rebate checks started to arrive.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected to 0.2% increases in both consumer spending and personal income in April 2008.

Further, it was the fifth straight month of sluggish consumer spending performance. Also, in real terms, employee compensation declined 0.1%, its first decline in 12 months. Real disposable incomes are up 1.2% in the last 12 months.

Economist Peter Dawson said the April 2008 consumer spending statistic was not a surprise. "Consumers are cutting back, given the large increases in their monthly expenses for food and gasoline, so a 0.2% spending rise is a bit of an achievement," Dawson said. "It could have been much lower, given the lack of improvement in purchasing power."

Continue reading Consumer spending rises 0.2%... but so does inflation

February consumer spending rises a scant 0.1%, pointing to recession

Real consumer spending increased a scant 0.1% in February 2008, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Friday, inline with expectations. It was the third straight month of sub-par consumer demand, suggesting that a major component of U.S. economic growth is faltering, which typically leads to a recession.

Meanwhile, inflation eased in January 2008, with consumer prices increasing 0.1%. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, also increased just 0.1%. For the past 12 months, consumer prices have increased 3.4%, while the core rate has increased 2%, or below the U.S. Federal Reserve's inflation ceiling, i.e. within the Fed's 'comfort zone.'

In addition, personal income increased 0.5% in February 2008, with wages and salaries increasing 0.3%, asset income rising 0.2%, while rental income plunging 5.3%. This increase in income was above expectations of 0.3%.

Economic Analysis: One negative and one positive data point for the U.S. economy in the report. The essentially flat 0.1% increase in consumer spending for the third straight month is indicative of a slowdown in consumer demand, which suggests, at minimum, continued economic sluggishness ahead. A bright point: core inflation, running at 2.0%, remains below what the U.S. Federal Reserve considers to be excessive. If the core rate doesn't increase, that should provide additional leeway for the Fed to further lower short-term interest rates, should it choose to do so.

U.S. personal income rises, but inflation eats away most of the gain

Personal income rose in January 2008, but inflation also rose in January 2008, canceling-out the purchasing power of most of the personal income gains.

Nominal consumer spending increased 0.4% in January 2008 as did personal income, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Friday, in a statement. Each was above what economists surveyed by Bloomberg News have estimated -- a 0.2% increase for each.

However, inflation also rose in January 2008, canceling-out the purchasing power of most of the personal income gains.

Meanwhile, the PCE Deflator, which the U.S. Federal Reserve follows closely as a gauge of inflation, increased 0.4%. During the past 12 months, prices have risen 3.7%, roughly twice the pace of the 1.8% 12-month inflation rate as of August 2007.

Core inflation -- which excludes food and energy prices -- increased 0.3% in January 2008 and is running at a 2.2% rate during the past 12 months. That 2.2% rate is above the U.S. Federal Reserve's 1.5-2% target zone for PCE Deflator core inflation, commonly referred to as the Fed's "comfort zone."

Continue reading U.S. personal income rises, but inflation eats away most of the gain

Would CO2 limits curb global GDP growth?

Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf, an economist, poses the question, "Will CO2 emissions limits lead to a zero-sum global economy?" – an economy characterized by stagnant (or declining) incomes, and armed conflict among nations?

Wolf argues that increased energy consumption per capita, primarily oil from fossil fuel, has been a key causal factor in creating the plus-sum economic world we live in, which he calls the positive-sum economy. Or in other words, rising energy consumption has helped produce rising productivity / real incomes / wealth, and the expanding global economy that we know today.

In addition, Wolf further argues that rising energy consumption transformed politics -- assisting both the birth of democratic politics at home and more-consensual foreign relations among states -- by increasing the size of the economic pie. Elites in a country, Wolf argues, became more willing to tolerate the enfranchisement of the masses because it was in the elites' economic interest to do so: i.e. that energy consumption created a more-productive (and more-valuable) citizenry with higher incomes.

Internationally, a nation's gains from the increased trade that characterizes the high-energy consumption era far exceed its gains from making war with another nation: the plus-sum global economy that trade produces supports today's norm of trade as opposed to the limited-sum world's norm of conflict and war.

Continue reading Would CO2 limits curb global GDP growth?

U.S. productivity surges 6.3% in Q3

U.S. non-farm productivity surged to an annualized rate of 6.3% in Q3, the strongest productivity gain in four years, the U.S. Labor Department announced Wednesday.

The revised statistic is a substantial increase from the preliminary 4.9% Q3 productivity increase announced by the department a month ago.

"All in all, it's a great productivity number for the quarter, which leads to a good annualized rate," economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Wednesday. "This will relieve some inflationary pressure in the economy, and also give the Federal Reserve some leeway regarding interest rates. The Fed can now see that labor is not adding that much to inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy."

Over the past 12 months non-farm business productivity has increased 2.7%, the largest four-quarter gain since late 2004. During Q3, manufacturing productivity increased 5%, while non-financial productivity gained 4.2%.

Economic Analysis: The high Q3 productivity stat is good news for the economy, employers, and employees. With high productivity, the U.S. economy can grow rapidly without inflation, easing pressure to raise prices. This simultaneously means worker productivity per hour is rising, which usually leads to raises, higher real incomes, and higher living standards. After registering productivity giants that averaged 2.5% per year for 1996-2005, productivity had slowed to about 1% in 2006. With the revised Q3 2007 stat, there's now additional evidence that productivity has resumed advancing at an impressive rate.

Slow income and consumption growth in September

The Commerce Department reported today that personal income was up 0.5 percent, slightly higher than August's revised 0.4 percent, but personal consumption slowed to just 0.1 percent in September, less than the revised 0.2 percent for August. These numbers are exactly the opposite what many economist were expecting. Economists expected to see a 0.4 percent increase for personal income and a 0.2 percent increase for consumer spending.

This report reflects the trend we saw in last week's GDP report from the Commerce Department which showed that economic growth was the weakest in three years. It also reinforces the Fed's decision to hold short-term interest rates steady amid signs that the economy is slowing.

Spending on durable goods -- those designed to last three years or longer -- increased by 1.6 percent, which is much better than August's 1.4 percent decline. But spending on non-durable goods declined by 1.2 percent after gaining in August by 0.2 percent.

Personal savings continues to be in the negative with a drop of 0.2 percent. That's now 18 months that savings has been in the red. I suspect personal income growth would need to increase much more dramatically to see the savings rate turnaround.

Before the bell 10-30-06: Economy, Europe, Wal-Mart affecting stock futures

Early morning futures are negative, pointing to a lower start stocks.

The market is possibly reacting to two things, the first being the sell-off that started around noon Friday, and the other is the sell-off in overseas markets. Update: oil prices are lower and futures may be changing the negative trend, although they are still negative at 8:15 a.m..

On Friday, data concerning the health of the economy in the form of Gross Domestic Product was reported, showing a lower growth than anticipated. Despite the concern about the economy'd growth slowing down, the market braved the news until at noon the sell-off began. This could have also been triggered by a Goldman Sachs report about lower demand for PC boards in China in the coming year. This report sparked the sell-off in the tech, and then possibly expanded to the whole market.

Today, major stock markets in Asia closed lower, with Japan's Nikkei 225 down nearly 2% . European markets are also negative with the German DAX 30 declining 0.7%. as is the FTSE 100 in London.

This morning, September personal income and spending will be reported at 8:30 a.m.. Analysts forecast both to grow at 0.3%. A measure of inflation, core PCE price index will also be reported, although may not have the same weight as other inflation measures.

Topping the news this morning are Wal-Mart, Verizon (both are Dow components), American Power Conversion and Yahoo!:

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) reported a pallid 0.5% increase October sales, the smallest gain in six years. Wal-Mart shares were down 1.7% in Frankfurt this morning.

Yahoo!, Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral by Merrill Lynch, which calls the present stock price an attractive entry point. Yahoo! shares were up 1.4% in Frankfurt.

Verizon Communications, Inc. (NYSE:VZ) just reported third-quarter financial results. Earnings (non-GAAP) were $2.0 billion, or 68 cents per share, a 7.5% increase over last year's Q3 earnings of $1.8 billion, or 66 cents per share. Analysts were expecting flat earnings.

Finally, French electric equipment maker Schneider Electric SA had agreed to buy American Power Conversion Corp. (NASDAQ:APCC) for $6.1 billion in cash. According to Schneider, the $31 per share offer, which represents a 30% premium over APC's Friday closing price, has been approved by the APC board.

Other stories:

A Goldman Sachs report from Friday suggesting that shipments of the main circuit boards for personal computers will be weaker than expected this year, could be indicating a sector weakness. Already on Friday the report sent computer makers Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE:HPQ) and Dell Inc. (NASDAQ:DELL) stocks down 1.8% and 1.1% respectively. Chip makers, Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE:AMD) stocks dropped around 3%. The report could also impact Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) shares as many awaited its new operating system, Vista.

An article in TheStreet.com examines the recent rallies of Yahoo!, eBay, Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) and Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), suggesting they are riding the positive sentiment from Google, Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG).

In the auto industry, two more foreign automakers would shortly announce their plans to produce cars in Russia. General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM) and Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F) are already producing there, and Toyota Motor Corp. (ADR) (NYSE:TM) will start shortly.

Norway's Statoil and its partners Norsk Hydro and ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) have awarded contracts worth about 700 million Norwegian crowns ($107 million) for gas turbine maintenance to General Electric Co. (NYSE:GE) and a unit of German engine group MTU.

Time Warner, Inc.'s (NYSE:TWX) Warner Bros, Martin Scorsese's mob tale "The Departed" held strongly again, taking in $9.8 million to place second for the third-straight weekend. The Warner Bros. film lifted its total to $91.1 million. In first place was Liongate's "Saw III."

Finally, the Blogging Stocks team reported some interesting stories on Apple Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) over the weekend.

Before the bell: AAPL, GOOG, YHOO, EBAY

Stocks were a bit higher this morning in pre-market trading, but they didn't seem to have much conviction and were drifting lower as the bell approached. On the positive side, overseas markets were higher and news of Boeing's possible $1.7 billion purchase of Aviall was making things more exciting.

Plus, Wal-Mart's 6.8% jump in same-store sales, reported on Saturday, was boosting optimism that the consumer would hang tough as energy prices surge. At 8:30 a.m., the government reported higher personal income and consumer spending in March. Both came in higher than expected and a nice bump from February. This news should give investors added motivation to hang tough today, despite global concerns.

But oil prices were on the upswing this morning, topping $72 a barrel -- again. And confrontation over Iran's nuclear intentions was heating up. Meanwhile businesses were wondering how disruptive plans for an immigrant labor boycott today would be. Spiking gold prices -- now up to $662 -- were a sign that some investors are worrying about a falling dollar and global stability.

Here's a quick look at key Blogging Stocks this morning: Here's a quick look at key Blogging Stocks this morning:  

Apple (AAPL) is up 38 cents to $70.77 as of 8:30 a.m. A pessimistic Dow Jones story, "Apple's Been Bruised, But Will May Bring A Beating?," doesn't seem to be deterring investors who seem set to continue last week's rally in the stock price.

Google (GOOG) is up $1.68 to $419.62 as of 8:37 a.m. It is weighing in on Microsoft's antitrust battle over Internet Explorer.

Yahoo! (YHOO) is up 27 cents to $33.05 as of 8:36 a.m. Check out Yahoo! Tech, it's new site for computer and consumer electronics shoppers.

eBay (EBAY) is up 35 cents to $34.76 as of 8:37 a.m.

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Last updated: November 22, 2008: 02:36 AM

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