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Suddenly, (nearly) every institutional investor in the world wants dollars

A year ago, few in the currency market would have predicted this stunning reversal in the flow of capital.

Despite being the nation that's likely to bear the largest economic and fiscal costs -- including a huge increase in its budget deficit and national debt -- from the global financial crisis, institutional investors are turning to the U.S. dollar in a flight-to-safety that economists say shows few signs of ending soon.

Investors flee to the dollar

That's right: you read correctly -- investors are turning to the dollar as a safe haven. Despite a decade of budget and trade deficits that drove the dollar to records lows. Despite an uncertain (at best) immediate economic outlook (the U.S. will be oh-so-fortunate to experience only a mild recession). Despite disagreement in the nation over the best way to pay for the many rescues / interventions needed to end the crisis. Despite the uncertainties presented by the upcoming U.S. Presidential / Congressional election. Despite its inadequate infrastructure and underdeveloped industrial base.

Despite all of the above, institutional investors abroad want: dollars. Money is flowing out of emerging markets and into the dollar -- so much that the major central banks may very well have to intervene repeatedly to support emerging market currencies to prevent further global financial system destabilization. Institutional investors are also flocking to Japan's yen, due to that country's relatively lower exposure to toxic assets.

Continue reading Suddenly, (nearly) every institutional investor in the world wants dollars

As dollar falls, foreign automakers plan U.S. factories

Do you like to drive fast Italian cars? If so, you're in luck. In the next few years, you'll probably be able to buy a zippy little Alfa Romeo -- and at a bargain price. Best of all, it will be made right here in the good old USA.

According to The New York Times, Fiat of Italy is considering building a new car factory in the U.S. to produce Alfa Romeo sports cars. Fiat hasn't sold cars here for over a decade, but the falling dollar makes the American market too potentially lucrative to pass up. Fiat believes that locating the factory in the US is the only way it can sell cars here profitably, due to lower labor and transportation costs in North America. The Center for Automotive Research in Michigan recently found that European autoworkers make $10 more an hour than autoworkers in the US.

Continue reading As dollar falls, foreign automakers plan U.S. factories

Canadian dollars and American dollars: A peso for your thoughts.

There is a bit of glee circulating on the frozen tundra amid news that the Canadian dollar has hit the equivalence of 92.34 American cents, its highest point in 30 years. TD Securities Inc. chief currency strategist Shaun Osborne states that it is possible that the Canadian dollar could reach a value of .96 cents by June. Analysts agree that if commodity prices continue to rise, there stands a good chance that the two currencies would equalize. I say if that point is reached the two currencies should be immediately put into lockstep and our fluctuating currency exchange on our northern border should end forever. Could it be done? Yes, it could. Will it ever happen? Probably it won't.

Personally, I think the benefits would far outweigh the temporary disadvantages. Granted, I expect there would be quite a tussle in the commodities exchange for a time but that's a self adjusting system anyway. NAFTA paved the way for the "free flow" of goods and materials across our borders. Currency equalization would take the teeth out of much of the damage that tilted document has inflicted upon the American economy. I suspect that Canadian manufacturers might get just a little testy about the idea, but I believe that in the long run it would level the playing field for them as well as us. I also think it would give North America a lot more leverage in the world markets.

Economic idealists and world view visionaries already have a name for a singular North American currency. Do a web search for the word "Amero" and you'll spend the rest of your week reading about it. You'll receive every point of view you could ever imagine. Some say it would be the next step to the "One World Government," some say it would be a protectionist move. I say it's the most logical step toward stabilizing two very powerful yet unsteady economies. I see it as a grand statement to the rest of the world that there's still a force to be reckoned with over here pinned between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

Then, if we could just annex Mexico...

Ay caramba: Pizza chain makes peso policy permanent

For those still fuming over Pizza Patron's "Pizza for Pesos" program, the fun continues. The Dallas-based chain, which had drawn the ire of an untold number of currency purists, announced that its policy would become permanent.

In early January, Pizza Patron -- with 60 stores spread across Texas, Arizona and Colorado -- began a two-month trial period during which they accepted Mexican currency at 12 per U.S. dollar (the current rate being approximately 11 to 1) to honor their Hispanic patrons, which they claim account for 60% of their business.

What resulted exactly from this progressive and inclusive policy? People pretty much lost their cool.

The restaurant reported a deluge of critical e-mails, including death threats, and inadvertently threw their hat into the hostile immigration debate. "This is the United States of America, not the United States of Mexico," one critical e-mail read. "Quit catering to the damn illegal Mexicans," demanded another.

While most businesses along the Mexican and Canadian borders welcome foreign currencies as a courtesy, Pizza Patron's restaurants stretch as far away as Denver, intensifying the debate. Said Patricia Perez, a partner at L.A. public relations firm Valencia, Perez & Echeveste, "Right now there's a lot of anti-immigrant rhetoric going around that could make them a lightning rod."

From an undisclosed location, Pizza Patron founder and CEO Antonio Swad (who, incidentally, is Italian/Lebanese) said in a statement, "What the pesos for pizza program is intended to do is reinforce our brand promise - as the premier U.S. Latino brand.... We have carved this niche in the pizza industry to compete and serve an underserved market - the Latino customer, not to make any political statement."

B. Brandon Barker is the author of the novel Operation EMU.

Peso-accepting pizza chain receives death threats

What started out as a simple, friendly, multi-cultural marketing ploy has drawn the ire of pizza purists all across the nation, as a medium-sized pie chain has stepped right in the middle of the somewhat hostile immigrant debate.

Dallas-based Pizza Patron, which claims a 60% Hispanic customer base, last week announced that it would begin accepting Mexican pesos at its 59 restaurants. This seems fine enough: Texas-area Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s (NYSE:WMT) and other businesses along the Rio Grande have been accepting the Mexican currency for years, while up north a similar arrangement exists with Canadian dollars. But Pizza Patron claims locations in Colorado, Arizona and Nevada -- which, last checked, is not exactly peso country -- would accept the foreign currency as well.

"This is the United States of America, not the United States of Mexico," one critical e-mail read. "Quit catering to the damn illegal Mexicans," demanded another.

Says Patricia Perez, a partner at Valencia, Perez & Echeveste in Los Angeles, "Right now there's a lot of anti-immigrant rhetoric going around that could make them a lightning rod."

Pizza Patron founder Antonio Swad (who, incidentally, is Italian/Lebanese) says the promotion will run through the end of February and then be re-evaluated. At which point they may, or may not, accept chocolate coins.

B. Brandon Barker is the author of Operation EMU

Pizza chain to accept Mexican pesos

In some pie-crazed parts of the world -- in this case, Dallas -- the competition for business can get so fierce, some chains will do just about anything to get your money. Even if that money is, well, pesos.

On Monday, Pizza Patron (with 59 stores spread across Texas, Arizona, California, Nevada and Colorado) began a two-month trial period in which they will accept Mexican currency at 12 per U.S. dollar (the current rate being approximately 11 to 1) to honor their Hispanic patrons and to make sure that no one -- no matter who they are or what they have in their pockets -- has to go without a large 15" or half 11" pizza (which appears to be the only things they offer on their menu). Hmm.

And while the news orgs will apply such obvious tags as the "growing Hispanic influence" and the "stifling immigration problem" -- because, believe me, all the major networks are covering this -- the real issue, I think, is whether or not a reactionary fallout will occurr. Will McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) start accepting all those impossible-to-exchange Scottish pounds? Will Burger King (NYSE: BKC) take those German marks left over from your backpacking trip through Europe?

The answer is, most likely, "nein."

B. Brandon Barker is the author of Operation EMU

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Last updated: November 22, 2008: 01:23 AM

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