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Investing Strategy: Find the Growth First, Then Invest

With the New York Times' headlines from Prechter's version of the Elliott Wave calling for a Dow 1000 tsunami to Krugman promoting a Third Depression, and with everyone trumpeting safe havens at any price, I continue to like our contrarian stance suggesting that near-term pessimism has peaked, making growth today's best investment.

The stage for such growth is obviously located where economic activity and job creation are on the rise (without the aid of stimulus plans). Looking at the IMF's recently released and upgraded 2010 global growth forecast, and as set against our more balanced mix, I'll wager growth makes even sound near-term investment sense... and at today's fretful prices, bargains buffer some of such a venture's risk.

Continue reading Investing Strategy: Find the Growth First, Then Invest

Investors flee to money market funds for safety

Money market assets have reached a record $2.65 trillion in the United States according to a recent Bloomberg article. Clearly attributable to remarkably pessimistic sentiment amongst nearly all market participants, investors are looking for shelter and safety in this incredibly volatile market.

The article goes on to cover the higher-risk 'money market' funds of today that are involved in much riskier asset classes such as subprime credit. This is a topic that my colleague Peter Cohan discussed yesterday and its an important concept to remember -- not all money market funds are created equal.

Every day new pieces of news hit the wires to confirm the 'we are scared' thesis. The volatility index (VIX) is at all-time highs, investors are pulling their money from the stock market and moving into money market funds, the markets are giving back much of their early year gains.

Before you take all of your money out of the market make sure you understand why you're panicking. Are you afraid that your holdings have exposure to a weakening credit market and tough borrowing environment? Are your holdings pricing in a rebound in housing to occur shortly? Then it makes sense to sell. But if you own long-term investments in stocks that you consider to be attractively priced don't let the panic overtake you.

Sentiment: Pessimism still reigns

Despite the U.S. stock market's continued rally, investors are becoming increasingly more pessimistic.

The AAII Index registered 33% bulls and 45% bears, less bulls and more bears as the market goes higher and higher.

Barron's was also filled with negative sentiment. Steve Leuthold, of Leuthold Group, had little positive to day about the market. In addition, Barron's back-page editorial wrote of the structure bear market and high inflation of the 1970s. Further, even this week's book reviews spread negative vibes. Bubblicious, a history of bubble mania (which sounds like an excellent read), wrote of wildly over extended markets.

Mike Santoli titled his piece "The Bull Battle Fatigue," evidence of which is hard to find since the bull market is showing little sign of ending its upward ascent.

Despite a very good market for 2007, few want to suggest that this is simply a good and healthy bull market. Every rally leads to more and more pessimism.

Wait for the classic sentiment indicates to show too much optimism before becoming negative on the market.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 11, 2012: 06:46 AM

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