This is an update through March 30, 2007 bringing the first quarter to a close. Earnings season is now upon us. It is my third follow-up report. Three months is a short time in the market for long term investors, and an eternity for a day trader. If you want to refer to the original article from December 28, 2006 see: You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!.

Summary of Results:

• James Cramer's average return on his 9 picks was 2% after two months but now stands at: +2.82% an improvement. Adding the dividend portion (.66 x .25) of 0.165 brings Cramer's gain to 2.99%. Last month it was his speculative stocks that supported his gains. This month they pulled back and his gains came from his best pick so far, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)
• The Indexes remained slightly negative, the DJIA leading the way south: -1.2%. Adding it's portion of the dividend yield (1.8 x .25) of .45 brings it up to a gain of 0.85 for the quarter.
• My picks are down for the year, but improved from -1.9% last month, to a negative of -0.61% for the quarter. Adding the dividend portion of (3 x .25) of .75 brings my quarter to a slight gain of 0.14% which is negligible. My picks are the most volatile now with super gains over 25% from Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) and super losses from PetroChina Co. (NYSE:PTR) which was at an all-time high when I mentioned it. Both companies are in the same industry, but PetroChina's profits are more closely regulated.
• Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) provided an +8.1% return in January, slipped to -2.9% in February and YTD has moved up for a smaller loss: -1.0% Although it has been an erratic three months Google has managed to float within a tighter range lately.

Not much change since last month. Since the quarter has concluded I added one quarter of the the dividends to the results. This is one of the criteria I used in my stock picks and will have an impact on the final results. Only 3 of Cramer's picks pay dividends averaging about .66%; the Indexes pay a higher average of 1.8%; my picks average still higher at about 3%; and Google does not pay a dividend. The flatter the market is this year the more the dividends will be a factor.

I still remain very comfortable with my stock picks and believe this year will prove to be a "Tortoise and Hare" story. It is my belief that 'Value' will beat 'Growth' and 'Indexing' over the long run. Google is a wild card! Two of my picks continue to be mentioned as buyout candidates; Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW) and Home Depot (NYSE:HD). Home Depot is receiving the most negative discussion in business circles these days but I see it as becoming a greater value at the lower price.

The following are the closing prices as of December 28, 2006 and three month returns for the seven stocks I recommended plus the addition of Spectra Energy that was spun out of Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK).

This is an update through February 28, 2007 which has come and gone all too quickly. It is my second follow-up report. Two months is a short time in the market for a buy and hold guy like me, and ages for a day trader. If you want to refer to the original article from December 28, 2006 see: You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!.

Summary of Results:.

• James Cramer's average return on his 9 picks was 5.86% last month but now after two months is: +2%. Interestingly it is his speculative stocks that are up the most. Best pick so far Level 3 communications.
• The Indexes all reversed from positive territory to slightly negative, the DJIA leading the way south: -1.2%.
• Liber return is negative at -1.9% held down by my inclusion of PetroChina which is down 22%. I cautioned about buying this stock at close to an all time high. However, for the purposes of this story I used that number as my starting point. Best pick so far Valero Energy.
• Google provided an +8.1% return in January and has since slipped for a YTD loss: -2.9% Among all considerations Google had the poorest showing in the last month going from first to last.

After each quarter I will be adding the dividends to the results. This is one of the criteria I used in my stock picks and will have an impact on the final results. Only 3 of Cramers picks pay dividends averaging about .66%; the Indexes pay a higher average of 1.8%; my picks average still higher at about 3%; and Google does not pay a dividend.

I still remain very comfortable with my stock picks and believe this year will prove to be a "Tortoise and Hare" story. It is my belief that 'Value' will beat 'Growth' and 'Indexing' over the long run. Google is a wild card! Two of my picks continue to be mentioned as buyout candidates; Dow Chemical Company and The Home Depot.

The following are the closing prices as of December 28, 2006 and two month returns for the seven stocks I recommended plus the addition of Spectra Energy that was spun out of Duke:

So January 2007 is already history and this is my first follow-up report. I recognize that from an investment perspective it is almost meaningless to gain any insight into the quality of my stock selections after only one month.

In truth, even a year is an arbitrary length of time to know anything for sure. On one occasion I sold Boeing (NYSE: BA) after holding it about 18 months, shortly before its rise, when its new CEO exercised some ethically and morally 'poor secretarial judgment'. Then I watched the stock double in quick order.

If you want to refer to the original article from December 28, 2006 see: You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!.

Summary of Results:

• Google provided an 8.1% return heading into reporting season. It has since slipped.
• James Cramer's average return on his 9 picks was 5.86% which was very good. There might be some Cramer bump but if there is it will fade and for now he has done great.
• The Indexes were all in positive territory.
• Liber return was slightly negative for January -0.55% held down by my inclusion of PetroChina. I cautioned about buying this stock at close to an all time high. However, for the purposes of this story I used that number as my starting point and believe it will be up this year.

After each quarter I will be adding the dividend yields to the results. This is one of the criteria I used in my stock picks and will have an impact on the final results.

Here are the closing prices as of December 28, 2006 of the seven stocks I recommended plus the addition of Spectra Energy that was spun out of Duke:

At least in the short run, PetroChina Company Ltd ADR (NYSE:PTR) is down for the year and may affect my stock pick average when I report the first month of results next Monday. When I wrote about PTR: PetroChina: Not a bargain, but one to watch for 2007 and included the stock as one of my seven picks for the year, I actually stated "I love this company," and I cautioned that it was close to an all-time high. After three weeks the shares are down. In the absence of this pick the rest are doing fine; the other six are up so far.

I'm into the stock at $44 and $55 per share in two different portfolios and have made this stock a mainstay that I cannot imagine selling, for reasons that you can read about in any one of my numerous stories on the company over the last eight months. It closed Tuesday at $127.17 per share, up $3.91 but down from $142.12 on December 28, 2006. For the year I still expect PTR to be up, but the slow start is a reminder, and when I look at my watch list there are picks I would have been less emotional about.

I am writing this story not so much about PTR but to call your attention to the hazard of falling in love with a stock. It is an investment, and besides your family, falling in love is a mistake, in particular with an investment because it can cloud your judgment. (This happens with family too, but that's another story.) If you have been involved with the stock market and investing in general, I'm sure you may have heard this before. Success itself can cloud your judgment as well. In the case of PetroChina, the stock has moved progressively higher, even when other Chinese stocks have faltered over the past few years. I am sticking with this pick because of its products and services, business financials and management -- and cautioning all to leave out the emotion when making investments.

Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks here. Be sure to read You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Yesterday I put my reputation on the line by recommending seven stocks that I think will outperform the market in 2007, You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!. In the past few years I have made some great calls and doubled, sometimes even tripled the market averages, helped along by stocks like PetroChina, (NYSE: PTR) acquired for $44 and closing yesterday $142.12; Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG) acquired at $7.70 and closing yesterday at $96.73; Merck (NYSE: MRK) acquired at $32.00 rising to $43.55, and Time Warner Inc. acquired at $12.10 and settling in last night at $22.00. There were many others.

This all followed the same disastrous 2001 collapse that most investors suffered. I wish I would have listened to James Cramer when he told me in a personal email that telecom stocks were going down hard. Like any of us, he is not always right -- but he was way right about that!

It has been said, and is worth repeating,"experience is what you get when you were expecting something else." We all got way too much experience in 2001. Since that time I have recovered all of my losses and then some, but it took a lot of work, a lot of study, and certainly some luck. Let's just say I'm older and wiser.

In making yesterday's recommendations I tried to stay away from get rich quick notions and chose stocks that I believe have strong upside potential with protection against downside risk. All seven of my 2007 picks are well known companies to most stock market investors. They are all companies that I feel are buy and hold propositions.

Here are the closing prices as of December 28, 2006 of the seven stocks I recommended:

1. The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW): $40.02
2. Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK): $33.02
3. The Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD): $39.73
4. Huaneng Power International ADS (NYSE: HNP): $36.00
5. PetroChina ADR (NYSE: PTR): $142.12
6. Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) $22.00
7. Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) $51.61

I will report back each month with the closing stock price as of the 28th of each month. If I am wrong it will be very public. Although I did not recommend jumping in each of these stocks at these prices immediately, I will use them for tracking purposes, come what may.

Disclosure: I own shares of DUK, HNP, PTR, TWX and will likely own DOW, HD, and VLO prior to next months report.

Happy New Year!

Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Lets discuss your picks for 2007

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.