Analyst Upgrades

• Goodrich (GR) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Ford (F) to neutral from underperform and CenterPoint Energy (CNP) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Dollar Financial (DLLR) and Edwards Lifesciences (EW) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Alterra Capital (ALTE) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) and P.F. Chang's (PFCB) to buy from neutral, as well as SunTrust (STI) to neutral from sell, at Janney Capital.
• Arch Capital (ACGL), Axis Capital (AXS), PartnerRe (PRE), Everest Re (RE) and Transatlantic (TRH) to buy from hold, as well as W. R. Berkley (WRB) to hold from sell, at Citigroup.
• Optimer Pharm (OPTR) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.

Analyst Upgrades

• Deutsche Bank upgraded Murphy Oil (MUR) to buy from hold following the company's analyst day. In addition, the firm raised its target for shares to $70 from $59.
• SunTrust upgraded Petroleum Development (PETD) to buy from neutral based on higher price realizations. The firm has a $31 target on the stock.
• Sterne Agee upgraded P.F. Chang's (PFCB) to buy from neutral, citing valuation and SSS momentum. The firm has a $54 target on the stock.
• Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) was upgraded to neutral from underperform at Credit Suisse.
• PepsiCo (PEP) was upgraded to conviction buy from buy at Goldman.
• Baytex Energy Trust (BTE) was upgraded to buy from speculative buy at Canaccord.
• Disney (DIS) was upgraded to hold from sell at Citigroup.

Across the U.S., from midtown Manhattan to suburban Des Moines, restaurants are starting -slowly but surely - to see signs of recovery. Market research firm NPD Group, which tracks sales at 47 restaurant chains, indicates that sales at restaurants at least one year old rose 1% in March on a year-over-year basis. It's a modest victory, but a victory nonetheless, as the industry emerges from 10 months of slowing sales.

Are you one of those Americans who likes to wait until the last minute to file your taxes? Do you like to go to the post office at midnight? Would your day be better if you could get a free bite to eat or a free drink? Well, today is your lucky day. Some of you out there would like to know that companies are giving away some free morsels, some of which collected by U.S. News & World Report, to try and make your day a bit less taxing.

Seriously, whose day wouldn't be a bit sweeter if they received a free Cinnabon mini-cupcakes (two per customer from 6 PM to 8 PM)? Once you get your muffins, head on over to Starbucks (SBUX) with a reusable travel mug. Doing so will earn you a free drip coffee, which you can enjoy with said muffins.

Call volume is unusually heavy today on P.F. Chang's China Bistro (PFCB), as the restaurant chain prepares to unleash its fourth-quarter earnings results next Wednesday. So far, more than 2,500 of these bullishly oriented options have crossed the tape, representing roughly seven times PFCB's expected call volume.

The day's most popular strike is the February 45 call, with more than 2,200 contracts changing hands on open interest of 4,177 contracts. Several sizable blocks have changed hands at the ask price, suggesting that traders are buying new calls at this out-of-the-money strike today.

Analyst Upgrades

• Janney Montgomery upgraded Dreamworks (DWA) to buy from neutral on valuation and believes Dragon will be a major hit. The firm has a $45 target on the stock.
• Thomas Weisel upgraded Gildan Activewear (GIL) to market weight from underweight, citing expectations for increased market shares in the U.S. screen print channel. The firm raised its target to $17 from $12.
• P.F. Chang's (PFCB) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.
• PEPCO Holdings (POM) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Arris (ARRS) was upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS.

Analyst upgrades:

• ING upgraded Roche (OTC: RHHBY) to Buy from Hold as it believes Roche will not pay more than $100/share for Genentech (NYSE: DNA) and that the Avastin adjuvant data due April 2009 provides significant upside potential.
  
• Oppenheimer upgraded Motorola (NYSE: MOT) to Outperform from Perform on valuation as it believes sentiment is at an all-time low and the stock has limited downside. The firm set a $5 target on shares.
  
• Morgan Stanley upgraded Comerica (NYSE: CMA) to Equal Weight from Underweight citing valuation that adequately reflects credit deterioration in its commercial-heavy loan portfolio and aggressive government action.
• Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE) and Nucor (NYSE: NUE) were upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
  
• Pinnacle Entertainment (NYSE: PNK) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.

When Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ: BWLD) reported a sharp drop in earnings for the third quarter last November, the stock plummeted to a 52-week low of $14.50 during the succeeding two months.

At the time, I suggested that the fundamentals at the company were so strong that the analysts downplaying the stock and the investors driving the price down were mistaken.

BWLD recovered in early December and held on to those gains for the first part of 2009. With the release of the fourth-quarter earnings report yesterday, the stock has added another 30%-plus to its price.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: P.F. Chang's, ViroPharma and CSX Corp were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded shares of P.F. Chang's (NASDAQ: PFCB) to Buy from Hold to reflect the company's capital preservation focus, which they believe will drive a best-in-class free cash flow yield in 2009. Despite upgrading shares, Jefferies lowered their target price to $28 from $31.
  
• Thomas Weisel raised ViroPharma (NASDAQ: VPHM) to Overweight from Market Weight on valuation as they believe the sell-off on the Lev Pharmaceuticals (LEVP) acquisition is unwarranted. The firm raised their target price to $15 from $10.
  
• Merrill upgraded CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) to Buy from Neutral based on valuation and improved results.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Borg-Warner (NYSE: BWA) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.
  
• Credit Suiise raised Walgreen (NYSE: WAG) to Outperform from Neutral.
  
• SunTrust upgraded Arena Resources (NYSE: ARD), Bill Barrett (NYSE: BBG) and Concho Resources (NYSE: CXO) to Buy from Neutral.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Jabil Circuit, Aircastle, Genesis Lease and P.F. Chang's were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• JP Morgan downgraded shares of Jabil Circuit (NYSE: JBL) to Underweight from Overweight following the lower-than-expected guidance, as they believe the company is seeing end market weakness in most of its markets. Shares were also downgraded at Thomas Weisel to Market Weight from Overweight and at Credit Suisse to Neutral from Outperform following the disappointing guidance.
  
• JP Morgan also downgraded shares of Aircastle (NYSE: AYR) and Genesis Lease (GLS) to Neutral from Overweight to reflect the continued credit and equity market challenges faced by both companies.
  
• Friedman Billings downgraded shares of P.F. Chang's (NASDAQ: PFCB) to Underperform from Market Perform as they believe 2008 will be a challenging year for all casual dining restaurant companies and that the valuation is expensive at current levels.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Goldman added Foundation Coal (NYSE: FCL) to its Conviction Sell List.
  
• Collins Stewart cut SiRF Technology (NASDAQ: SIRF) to Hold from Buy.
  
• Elan Corp (NYSE: ELN) was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Canaccord Adams.

Georges Yared notes in his insightful post about Amazon.com, Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AMZN):

Amazon has been what Wall Streeters call a "stalled-story". That means the company took most of 2004-2006 to build very expensive infrastructure and spent heavily on heavy marketing expenses to acquire customers. This spending spree took the winds out of Amazon's sails for those three years. Earnings growth, visibility and momentum suffered as did the share price.

Throughout the rest of the post, Georges explains the very interesting growth long-term growth story in Amazon, as he responds to my recent post about the short-term price action I expect in Amazon.

I believe this entire situation is a perfect example of two things: 1) How a mindset going into a position can affect what the investor is looking for; and 2) How two different people, with different perspectives, can potentially be right about a stock.

I've noted the different mindsets between going into a trade and going into an investment before on BloggingStocks. Something like Earthlink (NASDAQ: ELNK) would be an investment, while something like PF Chang's (NASDAQ: PFCB) or Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), would be pure trades, meaning there's no intent to hold the stock. PF Chang's trade I've discusses was event-driven with the belief that the company would cut guidance, which it did. Google's was a sentiment play due to the belief that stockholders would get nervous with the company's performance, and so far it seems they have.

It's important that people remember this concept because oftentimes when I have a thought on a trade it could be different from my long-term view of a stock.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Advantest (ATE), RightNow Technologies (RNOW), Mattson Technology (MTSN), Akamai Technologies (AKAM) and P.F. Chang's (PFCB) were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Matrix downgraded Advantest (NYSE: ATE) to Strong Sell from Hold; the firm doesn't expect Advantest's profits to improve in the near-term after chip makers indicated they plan to cut capital spending.

• RightNow Technologies (NASDAQ: RNOW) was cut to Sector Perform from Outperform at Pacific Crest to reflect the company's poor execution.

• Mattson Technology (NASDAQ: MTSN) was downgraded to Sell from Buy at American Technology; The firm said Q2 results were strong but bookings and gross margin outlook were weaker due to memory spending weakness.

• Credit Suisse downgraded P.F. Chang's (NASDAQ: PFCB) to Market Weight from Overweight at Thomas Wiesel to reflect below plan new store performance for the third consecutive year at Pei Wei...

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Citigroup cut Taiwan Semi (NYSE: TSM) to Hold from Buy.

• Merriman downgraded Fuel Tech (NASDAQ: FTEK) to Neutral from Buy.

• Bear Stearns cut Hess Corp (NYSE: HES) to Peer Perform from Outperform.

• Goldman Sachs removed Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) from its Conviction Buy list.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Shares of Panera Bread Company (NASDAQ: PNRA) have pulled back since the company reported earnings in early April. The firm posted first-quarter earnings that were at the low end of its previous target of $0.47 to $0.50 per share -- that represented a slight discount to consensus analyst expectations. This announcement, coupled with a similar warning from PF Chang's China Bistro (NASDAQ: PFCB), sparked fears that a slowdown in consumer spending is starting to hit the fast-casual restaurant chains.

But Panera's problems are at least partly due to geography and weather. Specifically, PNRA is based in St. Louis and has a high concentration of locations in the Midwest. This region of the country has been hit with particularly severe winter weather on several occasions this year, and such storms drastically slow business.

This inclement weather was particularly problematic because of Panera's policy of using fresh dough for its breads and pizzas. Basically, this dough must be made fresh each morning and tossed out at the end of each day. Lighter store traffic leads to lost revenues and higher raw ingredients costs.

However, I believe the worst possible news is already priced into the stock. Even based on lowered estimates, PNRA is trading at roughly 20 times forward earnings, a slight discount to its +24% long-term growth rate. That's cheap for a high-quality growth stock like PNRA.

To see more analysis from Paul Tracy, visit www.streetauthority.com

Other than the occasional (okay, fairly frequent) lunchtime or late-night trek to Taco Bell -- a unit of Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) -- I'm generally not a huge fan of chain restaurants. Most are very good at what they do, but when I'm dining out with friends or family, I typically prefer something off the beaten path.

One exception to this, however, is the upscale Asian dining spot P.F. Chang's China Bistro (NASDAQ: PFCB). If I may suggest, the steamed dumplings and garlic noodles border on culinary perfection.

PFCB shouldn't need much of a PR blitz from me, however; the waits are always long, any day of the week, and the reviews are generally of the rave variety. And yet, March same-store sales dropped 3.0% at the eatery's benchmark China Bistro locations and edged 0.5% higher at its Pei Wei restaurants. For the quarter, China Bistro same-store sales dropped 2.5% while Pei Wei sales rose 0.5%. Total revenue for the quarter ended April 1 rose to $264.4 million, up 15.6% from year-earlier levels but below analysts' expectations of $268.2 million.

On the heels of this news, PFCB shares have dropped more than 5%, dipping back below their 10-day and 20-day moving averages.

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc (ENDP) and Coldwater Creek (CWTR) were today's most notable initiations:

• First Albany initiated Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: ENDP) with a Strong Buy rating and $41.25 target; the firm believes the company's strong balance sheet can be used to strengthen the pipeline through the acquisition of product rights or companies.

• Thomas Weisel started Coldwater Creek Inc (NASDQ: CWTR) with an Underperform rating based on the fourth-quarter miss, and believes appreciation could be limited here.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Yamana Gold Inc (NYSE: AUY) was initiated with a Sector Performer rating and $20 target at CIBC, explaining that Yamana's production profile is expected to expand by 150% in the next two years, making it one of the fastest-growing gold companies in North America.

• Oppenheimer considers PF Chang's China Bistro's (NASDAQ: PFCB) valuation attractive and started the restaurant chain with a Buy rating and $53 target.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).