TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the presumption remains that we're doing badly. I disagree and will place my bets.

As a bull who feels like he's "won" of late, I am about as sure of myself as a gambler who has just had a couple of blackjacks, meaning that I expect to be given a 16 any week now. That doesn't mean you can't play out of a 16, especially when the dealer's got something similar. It does mean you have to be at the table.

I use the analogy because there's something about the "hotness" of this market after the employment number that flies in the face of what could happen if the big gains in the economy truly are all government and not private sector, especially if you look at the charts, which reveal an overextended and expensive market. The charts say we're about to stall out, and it bothers me because they've said that all the way up. And it bothers me because literally everyone I respect in this business -- except Steve Leuthold -- has emerged with a consensus view that the economy without stimulation would be near collapse, and even with stimulation will collapse anyway because of all the debt taken down to stimulate.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says it's just not an investable way of thinking.

Why is it such a bad idea to buy stocks if the worst is over? Why is it considered so heretical? One reason could be that there's too much moralizing going on among the stock pickers and the pundits these days. Yesterday, for example, I heard so many people blasting the government for coming to the aid of the Hartfords (NYSE: HIG) (Cramer's Take) and Lincolns (NYSE: LNC) (Cramer's Take) and Principals (NYSE: PFG) (Cramer's Take) that you would have thought that people wanted these companies to fail.

Analyst upgrades:

• Philip Morris (NYSE: PM) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Friedman Billings upgraded shares of Principal Financial (NYSE: PFG) to Market Perform from Underperform as they believe the company's capital buffer could keep outrunning credit losses.
  
• Friedman Billings also upgraded Office Max (NYSE: OMX) to Outperform from Market Perform. The firm believes the risk of recourse to Office Max from the Timber Notes formerly backed by Lehman is low and that any litigation by noteholders will have a low level of success.
  
• Citigroup upgraded CF Industries (NYSE: CF) to Buy from Hold on valuation following the recent weakness but lowered their target to $113 from $128.
• Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
  
• Granite Construction (NYSE: GVA) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.
  

Analyst downgrades:

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the safety theme will come back if only because these companies' earnings will be good in six months.

Editor's note: Jim Cramer will present his 2009 stock outlook for the first time at TheStreet.com Investment Conference on Saturday, Oct. 25. Click for details.

Now they come after the Procter & Gambles (NYSE: PG) (Cramer's Take) and the General Mills (NYSE: GIS) (Cramer's Take) and the like, betting that the action will be better in the cyclicals with all of this money being printed worldwide.

Commodities are also coming back because of reflation. And we have to feel that many of the infra and ag names are finally sold out by the hedge fund redemptions.

Here I am speaking of a Freeport McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) (Cramer's Take), with its good yield and a belief that the hedge funds are at last done.

I don't buy it. I like a balanced portfolio, but I want to buy the GIS/PG all the way down because we are going into a recession, not going out of one. These companies pay dividends, raise dividends and have great commodity tailwinds.

Colgate's (NYSE: CL) (Cramer's Take) down a lot too, and I am liking that one.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says he doesn't want to make a move until he sees the action.

We aren't oversold enough anymore, and we are up too much. Meanwhile, the next run is on the insurers, as we can tell from the erratic nature of the way that group is trading.

Oh, and what's the deal with Sallie Mae (NYSE: SLM) (Cramer's Take)?

There's not a lot of respite here in part, again, because of Lehman and the default of so much Washington Mutual paper.

We just aren't ready for what is happening yet, and we keep getting surprised about where the paper is. The rescue bill will help, but the pork attachments are so horrible that I believe, ex-FDIC, they have made it tougher to pass, not easier.

JPMorgan downgraded Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) from "overweight" to "neutral," according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that Merrill Lynch upgraded DirecTV (NYSE: DTV) from "neutral" to "buy."

Citigroup cut Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) from "buy" to "hold" and UBS raised Principal Financial (NYSE: PFG) to "neutral" from "sell," according to 24/7 Wall St.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: MGM Mirage (MGM), USA Truck, Inc (USAK), Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd (VLCCF), Monolithic Power Systems, Inc (MPWR) and Stanley, Inc (SXE) topped out today's noteworthy upgrade list:

• Prudential upgraded shares of MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) to Overweight from Neutral on valuation, as the firm believes the recent weakness presents a buying opportunity.

• USA Truck Inc (NASDAQ: USAK) was raised to Equal Weight from Underweight at Stephens based on valuation.

• Jefferies upgraded shares of Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd (NASDAQ: VLCCF) to Hold from Underperform to reflect the company's five vessels now operating on long-term time charter contracts and its recent entry into the dry bulk shipping sector.

• Monolithic Power (NASDAQ: MPWR) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank following its patent win case against O2Micro International Ltd (OIIM).

• Wachovia upgraded Stanley Inc (NYSE: SXE) to Outperform from Market Perform based on its strong Q4 report and guidance...

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Cognos Inc (NASDAQ: COGN) was upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at Pacific Crest.

• Riverbed Technology, Inc (NASDAQ: RVBD) was raised to Overweight from Market Weight at Thomas Weisel.

• Stifel upgraded Priceline.com Inc (NASDAQ: PCLN) to Buy from Hold.

• Barrington raised X-Rite, Inc (NASDAQ: XRIT) To Outperform from Market Perform.

• Morgan Stanley raised Principal Financial Group Inc (NYSE: PFG) to Equal Weight from Underweight.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).