Analyst Upgrades

• Intel (INTC), ON Semiconductor (ONNN), Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC), Fairchild Semiconductor (FSC), STMicroelectronics (STM) and Altera (ALTR) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Capital One (COF) to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.
• Dollar Tree (DLTR) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Foot Locker (FL) to buy from neutral at Sterne Agee.
• Progressive (PGR) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Flow International (FLOW) to buy from neutral at Roth Capital.
• Signature Bank (SBNY) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• HiSoft Technology (HSFT) to buy from neutral at UBS.

Analyst Upgrades

• Amgen (AMGN) to overweight from neutral at Piper Jaffray.
• Goodrich Petroleum (GDP) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Tutor Perini (TPC) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Covidien (COV) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Sara Lee (SLE) and Comcast (CMCSA) to outperform from market perform at Bernstein.
• Research In Motion (RIMM) to outperform from sector perform at FBN Securities.

Analyst Upgrades

• Oppenheimer upgraded VeriSign (VRSN) to outperform from perform, citing better-than-expected domain names trends and the potential for a sizeable share buyback. The firm has a $33 price target for shares.
• Oppenheimer also upgraded EMC (EMC) to outperform from perform, citing valuation and expectations for strong Q2 results. The firm set a $22 price target for shares.
• Piper Jaffray upgraded Juniper (JNPR) to overweight from neutral, citing valuation and its longer-term outlook. The firm keeps a $31 price target for shares.
• Kilroy Realty (KRC) was upgraded to neutral from underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• Veolia Environment (VE) was upgraded to buy from add at WestLB.
• QEP Resources (QEP) was upgraded to positive from neutral at Susquehanna.

Analyst Upgrades

• Stephens upgraded Schlumberger (SLB) to overweight from equal weight with an $80 price target, citing valuation and the company's international activity.
• Roth Capital upgraded Synutra International (SYUT) to buy from hold, citing the company's improved outlook, increased market share and valuation. The firm has a $27 target on shares.
• Oppenheimer upgraded Progressive (PGR) to perform from underperform as it believes the company's focus on growth could move shares higher in the near-term.
• Inergy Holdings (NRGP) was upgraded to buy from hold at Wunderlich.
• Best Buy (BBY) was upgraded to hold from sell at Societe Generale.
• Vale SA (VALE) was upgraded to buy from hold at Canaccord.

Voted MLB's best ballpark in 2008, Cleveland's Progressive Field boasts the name of Ohio-based Progressive Corp. (NYSE: PGR).

Drawn down by the financial crisis and credit freeze of 2008, Progressive fell to $10 per share. With it now trading around $16, I consider the stock a bullish candidate given its fundamental strength and the fact that 82% of the analyst community ranks this stock as a "hold." I think the analysts will wake up and start upgrading the stock, driving buyers back into the insurer.

Baseball fans worldwide continue to warm themselves around the glow of the television to watch the Phillies and Yankees battle it out in the World Series.

Well, sports fans, I know you're psyched, but I have something just as exciting for you: six home run trades.

Peter Lynch had his "take a walk down Main Street" style of investing, so let's call this the "take me out to the ball game" approach to trading. I'm going to give you six trades that I think will knock it out of the park.

The second half of the calendar year has begun, and earnings return to the spotlight this week. As usual, Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) is among the first of the S&P 500 to report quarterly results. For the second quarter in which Alcoa agreed to sell its wire harness and electrical distribution business and its fastening systems business expanded into Morocco, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the New York-based aluminum producer to report swinging to a net loss of $0.34 per share from a profit of $0.66 per share in the year-ago period. Second quarter revenue is expected to have fallen 48.3% to $3.9 billion. The full-year forecast is currently for a loss of $1.04 per share and revenue of $16.7 billion (-38.0%). Alcoa has missed expectations in the past three quarters, by as much as 17 cents per share. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 10.0%, which is better than the sector average. Alcoa slashed its dividend earlier this year, and the First Call consensus recommendation remains to hold AA. However, TheStreet.com recommends it as an against-the-grain pick. At $9.86, shares are down 12.4% since the beginning of the year, and recently have been bumping up against the 200-day moving average.

Progressive (NYSE: PGR) an auto insurance company, closed at $14.50. PGR July option implied volatility is at 49, August is at 44; below its 26-week average of 60; according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Willis Group (NYSE: WSH) a brokerage and risk management company, closed at $25.66. WSH July and August option implied volatility of 44 is below its 26-week average of 54, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing movement.

Marsh & McLennan (NYSE: MMC) closed at $20.39. MMC July option implied volatility is at 32, August is at 36; below its 26-week average of 47 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) started off the new earnings season with disappointing results that helped to stifle the recent rally. Was that enough of a sign of what's to come? No, probably not. But the earnings reports start to fly in earnest this week, which should provide a more detailed picture of the state of things.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters anticipate that some of the biggest names will prove to be holding their own. Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is expected to post a profit of $4.91 per share, marginally higher than a year ago, and Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE: JNJ) expected $1.22 per share profit is slightly lower year over year. Even Mattel Inc.'s (NYSE: MAT) estimated loss of $0.13 per share is the same as in the year-ago period.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Bernstein downgraded the Refining Sector to Market Weight from Overweight based on the weakening earnings outlook for the group. The firm downgraded Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) and Tesoro (NYSE: TSO) to Market Perform from Outperform.
  
• Citigroup downgraded shares of International Game Tech (NYSE: IGT) to Hold from Buy following the company's lower than expected guidance and removed the stock from their Top Picks Live List. The firm lowered their target to $25 from $45. Shares were also downgraded at Oppenheimer to Perform from Outperform following the company's lower-than-expected results.
  
• Jefferies cut Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) to Hold from Buy following the company's Q2 results as they see limited upside catalysts and a matured core HIV drug franchise. The firm maintains a $56 target. BMO Capital downgraded GILD to Market Perform from Outperform based on valuation, flattening HIV sales, Letairis growth below expectations, and increased R&D costs.

• Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) was downgraded at RBC Capital to Outperform from Top Pick.
  
• Goldman removed Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) from the Conviction Buy List.
  
• Progressive (NYSE: PGR) was lowered to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Wachovia upgraded Progressive (NYSE: PGR) to Market Perform from Underperform based on modest signs of improvement in underwriting trends.
  
• Lehman upgraded Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) to Overweight from Equal Weight based on strong core trends and a potential announcement of digital service partners into its May 28 investor day.
  
• Credit Suisse upgraded Public Service Enterprise Group (NYSE: PEG) to Outperform from Neutral based on earnings growth through utility investment, valuation, upside from U.S. CO2 policy.

• Precision Drilling (NYSE: PDS) was raised to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital.
  
• Hertz Global (NYSE: HTZ) was upgraded at Soleil to Buy from Hold.
  
• Calyon upgraded Foundation Coal (NYSE: FCL) and Arch Coal (ACI) to Add from Neutral.

AP reports that Liberty Mutual, the nation's largest provider of workers' compensation insurance and its sixth largest property-casualty insurer, is buying Safeco (NYSE: SAF) for $6.1 billion, a 51% premium over Tuesday's close.

Having spent years working for Liberty Mutual in the 1990s -- part of it for Gary Gregg, who heads the Agency Markets unit that will manage Safeco -- I know that this deal may well be the largest in its history. Safeco sells $5.9 billion in insurance policies a year, while Liberty booked annual premiums of $20.2 billion. Safeco has posted poor earnings and its stock has tumbled recently. Bloomberg News reports that Safeco's auto unit posted a loss at the end of 2007 because of rising medical claims and repair costs, leading to a 33% decline in fourth-quarter profit and a 19% decline in its stock in 2008 before this morning's announcement.

It looks like there will be more consolidation in the personal lines property casualty industry. Seventy one percent of analysts tracking insurers of homes, cars and businesses expect a "significant increase" in mergers in 2008, according to an Accenture (NYSE: ACN) report based on 108 stock analysts in December and January. Candidates for acquisition could include Progressive Corp. (NYSE: PGR), Mercury General (NYSE: MCY), The Hanover Insurance Group (NYSE: THG), and The Commerce Group (NYSE: CGI).

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Acuity Brands Inc. (NYSE: AYI) beat second-quarter estimates on increased productivity and new products.
• Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) cut its outlook and announced job cuts.
• Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) missed first-quarter earnings estimates but beat revenue expectations.
• Circuit City Stores Inc. (NYSE: CC) surprised Wall Street by posting a second-quarter profit.
• Dell Inc.'s (NASDAQ: DELL) rosy 2008 forecast is based on cost cuts, overseas growth, share buybacks.
• DuPont & Co. (NYSE: DD) raised its first-quarter outlook on strength in agriculture and emerging markets.
• Eastman Chemical Co. (NYSE: EMN) raised its first-quarter guidance on strong sales and higher prices.
• EXFO Electro-Optical Engineering (NASDAQ: EXFO) beat estimates and announced an acquisition.
• Foundry Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: FDRY) slashed its first-quarter outlook, blaming the weak economy.
• Genentech Inc. (NYSE: DNA) beat first-quarter earnings estimates, but not revenue expectations.
• General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) missed earnings expectations and lowered its guidance.
• Novellus Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: NVLS) trimmed its first-quarter earnings and revenue forecasts.
• Progressive Corp. (NYSE: PGR) beat estimates though first-quarter profits fell due to lower premiums.
• Rite Aid Corp. (NYSE: RAD) swung to a loss in the fourth quarter on acquisition costs and a tax charge.

Progressive Corp. (NYSE: PGR) shares are trading higher after the company announced this morning its first quarter profit dropped 34% to $239.4 million, hurt by lower premiums. However, PGR posted earnings of 35 cents per share, exceeding analysts' estimates for a quarterly profit 29 cents per share. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on PGR.

After hitting a one-year high of $25.16 in June, the stock hit a one-year low of $15.00 in March. PGR opened this morning at $16.70. So far today the stock has hit a low of $16.70 and a high of $17.39. As of 12:25, PGR is trading at $17.25, up $0.65 (3.9%). The chart for PGR looks bearish and steady while S&P gives PGR a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bull-put credit spread below the $15 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 16.3% return in just four months as long as PGR is above $15 at August expiration. Progressive would have to fall by more than 27% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.