
What's one reason for not jumping back in the market at this juncture?
Well, one could certainly cite end-of-the-year tax loss selling, which typically weighs on the market. Or
the battle for Dow 8,000 between institutional bulls and bears. Or the fact that the Dow's path of least resistance,
from a technical standpoint, remains down. (That's a major reason why the Dow drops so quickly: all that's required is a hedge fund manager to sneeze and the Dow drops 300 points, or so it seems.)
All of the above are valid reasons to remain on the sidelines.
Is Washington planning big changes?But perhaps the best reason to not deploy new capital is the new era itself. The United States is preparing for a new presidential administration and one gets the sense that there could be a series of seismic shifts up ahead -- shifts that will affect money, markets, investing, and business trends.
It's true that after the U.S. government's allocation, via loans, loan guarantees, or investments, of
about $8.2 trillion for the financial system, it's hard to picture shifts up ahead that could be as landscape-altering as those undertaken in the past year. But that could very well be the case nevertheless.
Those hoping for small change are likely to be disappointed. On January 20, President-elect Obama becomes
President Obama and he is
big change. U.S. Senator and now Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton, D-New York, was
small change, and we saw how the electorate responded to her candidacy. Voters were so adamant for economic change (and other changes) after the United States' decade of descent that they not only blamed the Republican Party, they rejected anyone with even a hint of being a part of the economic policy mistakes, including Clinton.