There's no question that Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), whose corporate colleagues include Merck (NYSE: MRK), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), is a respected institution on Wall Street. It's a proud member of the Dow, and we all know the company's products: Band-Aid, Listerine, etc. J&J also makes diagnostic equipment and pharmaceuticals. It's truly a respected icon, as Steven Halpern found out.

Investors will be digging through J&J's third-quarter numbers next Tuesday, looking not only for signs about the economy but for signs about J&J itself. After all, everyone wants a defensive stock in their portfolios. A lot of companies aren't looking so defensive these days. Could J&J be the one?

According to Earnings.com, you shouldn't get too excited in terms of growth. The call for the bottom line is $1.11 per share. That would only represent low single-digit percentage growth. Of course, these days, that might be exciting enough. As to whether or not the bottom line will beat the analysts, I suppose the game is completely changed at this point, but I figure J&J will pull through on that count. It all depends on how much we can trust history given the brave new economic world we are suddenly faced with. According to this earnings analysis source at AOL Finance, J&J beat estimates the last four times at bat. Due to this strong recent trend, I'll assume J&J will deliver the goods.

So, let's assume J&J does please the Wall Street analysts. What then? Well, it's really going to be the outlook that's going to tell the ultimate tale. We'll have to see if management is going to give some positive thoughts during the conference call. What does management think about commodity costs and margins? What about the cash flows? Then there's the dividend and the share-repurchase program, two things which investors of J&J count on for long-term value. Management had a few things to say about these issues the last time around (please see the following transcript of the Q2 conference call). I think management is going to be cautious, but I don't feel that there will be any disastrous notes struck during the discussion with analysts.

It was July 1, 2008 when I first posted Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times. The title speaks for itself. This update, after nine weeks and horrible market conditions, is through Friday October 3, 2008.

The index for comparison is the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which closed on June 30, 2008 at 1,280.00. The S&P closed Friday at 1,099.23 , down 14.12%.

Each of my five picks is beating the market and three of the five are actually up despite crushing news in the financial sector, unemployment and housing. Congress did pass a Wall Street backstop/bailout bill that President Bush has signed, but only after adding another 450 pages and $130 billion to the amount. Although the five stocks have averaged a 0.75% loss, as intended, they easily beat the S&P by 13.37%.

Here are the five stocks that I still think are worth considering. For my original rationale see the linked story above.

1) Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) -- when recommended, the stock closed at $64.34 and paid a 2.89% dividend yield. It closed Friday at $66.16 -- up 2.75%. JNJ was featured in Barron's this month as the most respected from the top 100 companies in the world.

2) Teva Pharmaceuticals ADR (NASDAQ: TEVA) -- when recommended, the stock closed at $45.80 and paid a 1% dividend yield. It closed October 3 at $46.08 -- up 0.06% 0.62% Teva (of Isreal) is the largest generic drug company in the world and just got bigger through the acquisition of Barr Pharmaceuticals last month.

A graph from the May 2008 issue of Harvard Business Review tells a story about the dumbing down of the global economy.

From an article, Rebuilding the R&D Engine in Big Pharma [subscription required] the graph shows the total shareholder returns for various industries in two time periods: from 1985 to 2000 and from 2001 to 2007. Here are three of the leading sectors from 1985 to 2000 (average annual shareholder returns are in parentheses):

• Pharmaceuticals (20.0%)
• Financials (18.8%)
• IT (17.4%)

Between 2001 and 2007, three of the leading sectors were:

• Energy (15.2%)
• Materials (14.3%)
• Financials (7.0%)

"Of all the stocks that I follow and recommend, there is one stock above all others that I have favored for years, and still do: Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD)," says biotechnology sector expert Michael Shulman.

In his industry-leading ChangeWave Biotech Investor, he explains, "I have owned it for a very-long time and it is fast-growing and rock solid among all of the market uncertainty. When that uncertainty ends, GILD will still be a fast-grower in a recessionary economy."

"The company is a commanding market leader in HIV treatments, sells and collects royalties on other antivirals for flu and Hepatitis B. Gilead recently announced earnings and it had profits of $402 million or 41 cents a share, topping analyst estimates by a penny. It also saw sales grow 22% to $1.1 billion. Despite several product launches and increased clinical trial expenses, the company's cash position doubled to $2.7 billion.

"On a conference call, management said that 2008 would be a very good year, with product sales in the range of $4.7 billion to $4.8 billion. That's more than a 25% increase over 2007 product sales and higher than analyst expectations of $4.6 billion.

"Growth was driven by HIV drug sales, which were up 35% last quarter to $864 million. Management does not guide profit expectations, but the Street has those profits at around $1.88 billion, and Gilead has beaten expectations 14 out of the last 15 quarters.

The choppy/consolidating (or perhaps worse) market conditions sometimes give the impression that growth plays do not exist, but that is not the case, and one growth company worth reviewing is Elan Corp. Note: Elan is appropriate only for investors who can tolerate high-risk.

Elan Corp. (NYSE: ELN) is a neuroscience-based technology company focused on discovering, developing, manufacturing and marketing advanced therapies in neurology, autoimmune diseases and severe pain.

Analysts sees 33-40% revenue growth for Elan in 2008 after likely 30-35% growth in 2007.

Analysts also like Elan's ramping sales for drug Tysabri for multiple sclerosis and Crohn's disease; they are also hopeful about the company's Alzheimer drug, bapineuzmab, currently in trials.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the overreaction to pharma news lets you into the best names on the cheap.

There are so many crazy mistakes being made by this market that you have to keep your eyes open every minute. The biggest-cap stocks are acting like small-cap stocks.

Which brings me to Merck (NYSE: MRK) (Cramer's Take). This morning, Merck traded down to $47 off some deaths from maybe one of the most important inventions of all time, Gardasil, the anti-cancer vaccine.

Three bucks! How can that be! This vaccine's not going off the market. When you put this on top of how Schering-Plough (NYSE: SGP) (Cramer's Take) got cut in half because of fears that a drug will be pulled that represents 50% of its earnings (after the Organon merger, that's my estimate), you can see how extremist the market has become. Both Merck and Schering act like there will be no Vytorin sales at all next year at this time.

Teva Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: TEVA) raised its guidance for '07 after Teva launched a generic version of Wyeth (NYSE: WYE) Protonix over the weekend, to the apparent surprise of Wyeth management. It's clear that Teva must have started shipping the drug, and that's why it is raising guidance. Goldman Sachs analyst Randall Stanicky reaffirmed a "Buy" rating on Teva, saying the launch was unsurprising and the company has likely already shipped a decent amount of the generic drug to pharmacies.

This is just the latest in a long line of setbacks for big pharma, as generics continue to scoop up market share of drugs that come off patent. Teva, as the world's leading generic company, continues to grow and has a great pipeline for '08, and as a result the stock should continue climbing as well.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. Disclosure: Writer has a position in TEVA and is long the stock. Writer has no position in any other stock mentioned as of 12/24/07.

TEVA Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ: TEVA), the world's biggest generic drugmaker, reported that third-quarter net income fell to $525 million, or 64 cents a share, from $606 million, or 74 cents, in the year-earlier period. Sales reached $2.37 billion from $2.29 billion. Consensus estimates of 63 cents of profit on sales of $2.41 billion was expected. While TEVA was a bit light on the revenue line, it beat by a penny on EPS, in large part due to stronger than expected margins.

With a very strong pipeline, and expanding margins, TEVA continues to be the leading large pharma play out there. The stock is trading down today for two reasons. Up more than 50% year to date, the stock was priced for a blowout earnings report, which we didn't get. More importantly, CFO Dan Suesskind announced his retirement. In the company for over 30 years, he is the face of the company to investors, and his departure leaves many nervous. Hi replacement, current Checkpoint (NASDAQ: CHKP) CFO, Eyal Desheh, is no slouch. He knows TEVA well, having worked there for six years and as CFO of a NASDAQ 100 high-tech company, he is well-known on the Street.

For those looking for a long-term pharma play, consider buying TEVA on any weakness.

Disclosure: Author holds both TEVA and CHKP as of 10/30/07.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com.

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage

It peeves me just a little bit that in spite of some significant moves, there seems to be a lack of positive press for Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR). Oh, they received a good bit of spin out of their move to sign on to a series of directives promoting "best practices" for keeping tobacco out of the hands of minors, but those headlines were garnered in the interest of ivory tower politicos fanning their own egos, not in true recognition of Kroger itself.

What really gets me miffed though, is that the introduction of a $4 generic drug program at 76 of Kroger's pharmacies went virtually unnoticed by all except possibly a few hardcore AP writers who, after all, are responsible to report on just about everything.

So in the interest of "broad coverage," I now give you the link to the story at RetailingToday.com (registration required). I think the quip there provides a good, quick revelation regarding Kroger's generic drug efforts and it also makes a nice comparison between where Kroger is headed in the pharmaceutical business and how Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) is faring so far in that regard. We might note at this time that Wal-Mart has initiated a second price tier in its discount drug program.

Of additional interest in the Kroger camp was the recent indication by Jim Cramer that Kroger could be moving as high as $36. I won't disagree with that. Note that KR ended trading on 10-26-07 at $28.68, and was headed downward. Amid an overall positive attitude about the company, I believe that this puppy has room to run!

Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) saw a sharp drop in its third-quarter profit, as the world's largest drugmaker's net income declined 77% for its most recently completed quarter. Two big takeaways here: Pfizer exited the Exubera inhaled-insulin product market (taking a $2.8 billion charge in the process) and the company faced more severe generic product competition as well.

Generic drugs always hamper big pharma firms, and it's not going to get any easier in the next few years. Pfizer even lowered its 2007 net income forecast when it released Q3 results, partly on expanded generic competition. Try this on for size: Pfizer's Q3 profit came in at $761 million, down from $3.36 billion in the year-ago quarter. Sales fell 2% in the quarter to come in at $12 billion.

In what could be considered a lack of due diligence (oddly) or some terrible mis-forecasting, Pfizer's purchase of the worldwide rights to the Exubera product from Europe's Sanofi-Aventis in 2006 was a complete disaster. The $1.4 billion purchase produced Q2 revenue for Pfizer of $4 million. Let's see: even nominal growth rates would have given Pfizer perhaps $20 million in global annual revenue. Yikes -- that's more than a 20-year period for return there. Pfizer called Exubera numbers "disappointing," but I would call them "totally disastrous." Adding to the pain are the exclusivity losses for blockbuster products like Zithromax, Zoloft and Norvasc, but at least Pfizer sees the writing on the wall, what with 10,000 layoffs and everything.

Great news for you and Fido. And just in time for the August road trip season, too.

Withering pharmaceutical giant Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) announced today that Cerenia, the first FDA-approved drug that prevents vomiting in dogs, is now available with your vet's prescription.

According to the Travel Information Association of America, dogs are the most common pet taken on car trips. Some 30 million dog owners have traveled with their pets on a road trip of over 50 miles in the last three years, according to the group (which is cited on Pfizer's Cerenia press release).

This development comes nipping at the heels of Pfizer's weight-loss pill for dogs, Slentrol, which went on sale last month. In January the FDA approved this first ever prescription drug to treat the growing gullets of dogs all across America.

Pfizer reported a dismal second quarter earnings earlier this month, posting a 48% drop in profits due to patent losses on some key drugs and lackluster sales in others. But I think the company, most famous for its breakout erection drug Viagra, is on to something fluffy here. Americans are consuming more prescription drugs than ever before, and they're spending more on their pets, who are just as fat and depressed as their owners. Why shouldn't there there be a healthy, growing market for canine (and feline) pharmaceuticals?

Pfizer doesn't break out individual numbers for its Animal Health unit, and so far, doggie drugs haven't fluffed up the bottom line. According to second quarter numbers, the company sold only $632 million in non-human drugs. But good things come to those who wait, don't they? Also to those who don't puke in cars. Good dog.

Pharmaceutical companies are always risky propositions. So much depends on drugs in the pipeline, FDA approvals, patents in effect, and things going well when the medicines are prescribed to the public at large. But they can also be profitable when you've invested at the right time, right place. I think it is the right time, right place when it comes to Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: JAZZ). Jazz has figured out a model that is a bit less risky. Rather than trying to find the next big drug for something that other drug companies are also seeking cures for (think Alzheimer's or breast cancer), it focuses on those neurological and psychological needs that may be less high profile, yet are unmet by other medicines.

The FDA is nearing final approval of its lead compound, Luvox CR, which was developed by Jazz to treat obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD) and social anxiety disorder (SAD), two prevalent psychological disorders, and is expected to be released in 2008. In a July 11 research report, Lehman Brothers said, "We view Luvox CR as an attractive commercial opportunity for Jazz owing to the combination of: (1) a large, addressable patient population; (2) compelling clinical data including once-daily dosing; (3) a highly concentrated target physician audience; and (4) an absence of promoted brand products against which it will compete."

The latter point is the biggest one for me: Jazz is treading where other companies have not, and as a result, they will have a lock on a very viable landscape. Lehman Brothers expects Luvox CR sales to hit $170 million in 2011, and $230 million by 2015. If they are on target, and I believe they are, we will see Jazz increase significantly in value in the coming years, this upcoming year in particular, when Luvox CR is expected to hit the marketplace.

Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), a company that makes money by treating depression, raised the spirits of Wall Street today, Eli Lilly exceeded analyst expectations for second quarter earnings and raised its projections for the rest of the year.

After backing out the acquisition cost of Hypnion Inc. and Ivy Animal Health, adjusted earning hit $0.90 per share, compared to expectations in the $0.80-0.82 range. The company also raised its 2007 year-end projection for adjusted earnings to $3.40-3.50, slightly above analyst expectations.

Strong quarterly earnings were attributed in part to the sales of anti-depressant drug Cymbalta, up 67% to over $500 million, Zyprexa, up 9% to $1.2 billion, and Cialis, that is still swelling worldwide. Recently announced results of studies that found little or no relationship between the SSRI class of antidepressants and birth defects have also strengthened the company's outlook.

However, many of the reservations Bloggingstocks' Victoria Erhart expressed a few months ago still remain valid, and the long-term health of the pharmaceutical company may be dependent on restocking a less than burgeoning drug pipeline.

The stock took a jump on news of the earnings report, up over $1, or more than 2%, in midday trading.

Good thing that Zoloft is no longer covered by patent protection. Now it will be a lot cheaper for Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) investors to stock up on the anti-depressant so they can better cope with the drug maker's lousy earnings.

Net income in the second quarter plunged 48% to $1.27 billion, or $0.18 per share, on revenue of $10.11 billion. Excluding unpleasant stuff like restructuring charges, profit was $0.42. On that basis, Wall Street analysts expected profit of $0.50 on revenue of $11.4 billion, according to Thomson Financial.

Investors could take some solace knowing that the company doesn't think things will get much worse. It reaffirmed EPS and revenue guidance for 2007 and 2008. Good thing, too, since the company just cut its 2007 outlook in April.

Still, there wasn't much to cheer about in today's results. Sales of Lipitor, the company's most prescribed product, plunged 13% in the quarter, failing to meet Pfizer's own expectations. Zoloft sales plunged 82% while NORVASC fell 45% and Viagra fell 3%.

Investors expected sales of these drugs to plunge since they lost patent protection. Chief Executive Jeffrey Kindler has cut jobs and closed factories to cut costs. But what the company needs more than anything are new best selling drugs.

Like the minor league system in baseball, drug companies count on their pipelines to replace aging players. Whether investors will give Pfizer enough time to develop its prospects is far from certain.

Possibly more than ever before, smart stock investing requires a clear and wide forward view. If you don't have an undeniable road map for where your chosen companies are headed, you must dig deeper and you need to do it right now. Specifically, if the companies that you have chosen to invest in don't have a declared international focus, you must be certain of why that is and if it's appropriate.

Barring some unforeseen worldwide economic crash, which is in fact extremely possible, the fact sheet on investing these days is headed with the word global. If your portfolio is not thoroughly salted with companies that do business on a worldwide scale, then your portfolio is scheduled to wither and wane over the next three to five years. Global diversity is essential right now, and will continue to be a requirement from here on out.

It's my opinion that one of the most important criteria these days for successful portfolio building is to create a portfolio footprint that covers at least three different countries. If you have the funds to spread out and you're a fan of diversity, just for safety I suggest that you base your portfolio across five to seven countries. I would suggest the following research focuses as a sample to get your global thinking started.

Consider China for heavy manufacturing, machinery, electronics manufacturing, and a range of consumer goods. I'd be shy of putting any money over there at the moment, however, because to me their stock market is currently overinflated in value.