- Bunge (BG) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
- Textron (TXT) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
- CSX (CSX) to buy from neutral and Pulte Group (PHM) to conviction buy from neutral at Goldman.
- Aol (AOL) to buy from neutral at UBS.
- Kohlberg Capital (KCAP) to outperform from market perform at JMP Securities.
- Owens Corning (OC) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
- Jefferies (JEF) to buy from neutral at Ticonderoga.
- Harris (HRS) to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
- Disney (DIS) to buy from hold at Wunderlich.
- Pike Electric (PIKE) to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
- Kindred Healthcare (KND) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
- UBS (UBS) to hold from sell at Canaccord.
- Avery Dennison (AVY) and Take-Two (TTWO) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
- Mercer (MERC) to outperform from market perform at Raymond James.
- Goldman upgraded Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) to buy from neutral.
- Credit Suisse upgraded Pulte Group (PHM) to neutral from underperform. Note that Citigroup downgraded the stock.
- Ameristar Casinos (ASCA) was upgraded to neutral from sell at Merriman.
- Citigroup upgraded Kimco Realty (KIM) to hold from sell.
- Mistras (MG) was upgraded to buy from hold at KeyBanc.
- Devon Energy (DVN) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie.
- Garmin (GRMN) was upgraded to outperform from sector perform at PacCrest.
- Deutsche Bank upgraded Ford (F) to buy from hold and raised its price target to $19.50 from $14.50, citing positive demand trends, sustainable market share gains and strong cash flow.
- BMO Capital upgraded MGM Resorts (MGM) to outperform from market perform with an $18 target, citing stabilizing metrics in Las Vegas.
- Deutsche Bank upgraded TRW Automotive (TRW) to buy from hold, citing better-than-expected production trends, and raised its price target for shares to $52 from $39.
- Dr. Reddy's Labs (RDY) was upgraded to buy from underperform at BofA/Merrill.
- Pulte Group (PHM) was upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS and $8.50 price target.
- Vodafone (VOD) was upgraded to buy from neutral at Nomura.
- KeyBanc upgraded Las Vegas Sands (LVS) to hold from underweight based on Singapore performance and a potential revaluation of the yuan.
- ThinkEquity upgraded Seattle Genetics (SGEN) to buy from hold based on the positive SGN-35 HL data. The firm raised its price target to $16 from $12.
- Merriman upgraded Applied Signal (APSG) to buy from neutral with a $28 to $31 valuation range, citing greater confidence in earnings estimates and the company's recent contract wins.
- Siliconware Precision (SPIL) was upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie.
- Pulte Group (PHM) was upgraded to neutral from sell at Goldman.
- Greenbrier (GBX) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Morgan Keegan.
When Russell Sage was asked how to to become wealthy, he replied: "Buy straw hats in the winter." Who was Russell Sage? A Congressman from New York who was also a Wall Street financier who died with $70 million ... in 1906. His (sage) advice still works today, especially for stocks.
If you can buy stocks when they're out of season, or more likely, out of favor, you've got a much better chance of making money than when everyone else is jumping on the band wagon. The key item to remember is this: there are four seasons in a year ... every year, and when you buy straw hats in the winter (on sale no doubt), you know summer will be coming and their price will go higher. There are no seasons in the stock market. A stock out of favor now could stay that way for a long, long, long time. Even go bankrupt. So don't believe that a "cheap" stock now will automatically become valuable later.
Goldman Sachs has downgraded the entire Homebuilders industry from Attractive to Neutral, dropped MDC Holdings Inc. (MDC) from its Conviction Buy List and dropped its price targets on 10 stocks in the industry.
And really, who can blame them?
We've seen new home sales plunge from 504K in April -- right before the tax credit expired -- to 300K in May. We've also watched housing starts and applications for new building permits dry up. Plus, it is getting harder and harder for individuals to qualify for a loan.
- SunTrust upgraded Anadarko Petroleum (APC) to buy from neutral. The firm believes weakness related to the oil spill disaster is overdone and is a buying opportunity. The firm set an $82 price target on the stock.
- JPMorgan upgraded NII Holdings (NIHD) to overweight from neutral following the company's Q1 results. The firm has a $55 price target on the stock.
- Keefe Bruyette upgraded Columbia Banking (COLB) to outperform from market perform following the company's secondary offering due to valuation. The firm has a $30 price target on the stock.
- Clean Harbors (CLH) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
- Pinnacle Entertainment (PNK) was upgraded to buy from neutral at Janney Montgomery.
- Digital River (DRIV) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at First Analysis.
The Federal Reserve's first Beige Book report of the year is due out this week. The report is a compilation of anecdotal information on current economic conditions from each of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank districts. The data comes from interviews with business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources. The previous report, released in December, showed modest improvement in eight of the districts, while the October report confirmed that the economy was stabilizing after earlier declines.
Here are some highlights from last week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:
- CBS Corp. (NYSE: CBS) reported that Q3 revenue was flat while earnings and cash flow declined.
- Clorox Co. (NYSE: CLX) reported better-than-expected Q1 earnings, helped by healthy gross margins.
- Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) posted better-than-expected Q3 earnings with modest revenue growth.
- Dean Foods Co. (NYSE: DF) Q3 revenue missed estimates but earnings came in better than expected.
- Expeditors International of Washington Inc. (NASDAQ: EXPD) traded lower after its Q3 earnings miss.
- Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ: GRMN) beat earnings estimates in the week after the Google Navigation launch.
There was also a mixed picture on ADP and Challenger jobs data ahead of tomorrow's weekly jobless claims and ahead of Friday's key unemployment data. Gold continued its run along with higher oil on weekly inventory data.
Here were the unofficial closing bell levels:
Dow 9,862.44 +90.53 (0.93%)
S&P 500 1,046.50 +1.09 (0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,055.52 -1.80 (-0.09%)
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Skeptical, or impossible? That's how I am posing the dilemma of the "pull through" argument whether it involves Ford (NYSE: F) (Cramer's Take) and "Cash for Clunkers" or Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV) (Cramer's Take), Lennar (NYSE: LEN) (Cramer's Take), Toll (NYSE: TOL) (Cramer's Take), KB Home (NYSE: KBH) and Pulte (NYSE: PHM) (Cramer's Take) and the $8,000 tax credit.
Right now any time there is a stimulus program of any sort, the pundits/media/money managers all decide the most important single issue isn't what it will do to the numbers, or whether it will work at all, but what will it do to the "pull through." How much of future sales will it "steal"?
Most investors got slammed last year, down 50% or more in their investments. Didn't matter if they owned stocks or real estate, they got hammered. Many have to start over. And if they're near retirement, it's scary. Years of patient investing wiped out, gains that were made over a long time disappeared frighteningly fast.
But now it's time to begin fresh, to rebuild. What's the safest way to regain some or all of the losses without suffering another wipeout?
Last week's Fed Beige Book report and GDP numbers suggested that the economy may be stabilizing, and this coming week will bring plenty of economic data to confirm or deny that suggestion. On the schedule are consumer credit, construction spending, factory orders, and pending home sales for June, the employment situation, the Import Price Index, and new motor vehicle sales for July, as well as the ISM Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing Indexes for July.
The week will also bring quarterly reports from home builders Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH), D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI), and Pulte Homes Inc. (NYSE: PHM). Yet again, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect all three to have narrowed their losses in the most recent quarter. However, they've all tended to post deeper-than-expected losses in recent quarters as well. Analysts also expect to see their revenue down 45% or more for the past quarter. They forecast long-term EPS growth of 7% or more, but none of these homebuilders has a First Call consensus buy recommendation, not surprisingly. Short interest is falling off for Beazer and D.R. Horton, and D.R. Horton and Pulte have been reporting positive cash flow from operations, but all three of them said they had more long-term debt than cash in hand last time around. Mortgage insurer PMI Group Inc. (NYSE: PMI) is likewise expected to report that it narrowed its second-quarter loss.
You know what? I am going to wait until I am sure housing has turned before I buy the homebuilders like Lennar (NYSE: LEN) (Cramer's Take) and Pulte (NYSE: PHM) (Cramer's Take). I am going to wait until the foreclosures peak before I buy Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take).
I am going to wait until unemployment goes down before I buy 3M (NYSE: MMM) (Cramer's Take) and Disney (NYSE: DIS) (Cramer's Take) and IBM (NYSE: IBM) (Cramer's Take) and Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) (Cramer's Take).