TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says tons of stocks look like good buys, and they go down all the time.
All weekend I heard it. Stocks have gotten too cheap. Put 'em away cheap. Don't worry about 'em cheap. To which I say, stocks are only cheap if the companies make it. Stocks are only cheap if the bondholders don't claim them.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the scope of this crisis needs to be recognized.
The real deal is upon us. The October session that we always seem to get, the one that looks like we need intraday Fed meetings and lifelines to banks and a flood of liquidity and ... oops, we've already done that!
Yep. So often we have had the real hideous looks, only at the last minute to have the darned defeat we need to start over be defeated by some optimistic yahoos who come out of the woodwork and say, "buy, buy, buy!"
I don't want it to happen this time. We have to have some recognition that Ford (NYSE: F) (Cramer's Take) and GM (NYSE: GM) (Cramer's Take) and Chrysler matter and that they are all teetering, that the Boeing (NYSE: BA) (Cramer's Take) strike is going to soon shut down the part of American manufacturing that is not auto and that housing took a step down last month of unfathomable proportions. If you don't believe me, go read the Ryland (NYSE: RYL) (Cramer's Take) release: cancellations spiked up again! We will not hold those July lows that now make the HGX housing sector index run up look like a total ploy to make us feel better. When are Horton (NYSE: DHI) (Cramer's Take) and Pulte (NYSE: PHM) (Cramer's Take) going to merge anyway!
Wall Street's optimism in last week's preview about the earnings of tech stocks wasn't misplaced, as there were many more positive surprises than negative ones among the stocks we looked at. This week will bring plenty more data for investors in and watchers of the sector to mull over. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), for example, are expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial to post modest earnings gains from a year ago, to $1.11 per share (on $8.1 billion in sales), $0.72 per share (on $31.3 billion in sales), and $0.47 per share (on $14.8 billion in sales) respectively. All three of these companies ended the week closer to their 52-week lows than highs, and analysts on average consider them each a buy.
Here's a look at some of the week's biggest expected earnings gainers and decliners in the sector:
Baidu.com Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU): $1.25 per share (+44.0%) on revenues of $134.7 million (+103.2%)
Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM): $0.44 per share (+38.6%) on revenues of $1.3 billion (+33.8%)
QLogic Corp. (NASDAQ: QLGC): $0.31 per share (+29.0%) on revenues of $170.0 million (+21.2%)
FLIR Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: FLIR): $0.32 per share (+28.1%) on revenues of $275.2 million (+44.0%)
Juniper Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: JNPR): $0.30 per share (+26.7%) on revenues of $927.4 million (+26.2%)
Waters Corp. (NYSE: WAT): $0.75 per share (+17.3%) on revenues of $391.6 million (+11.1%)
UBS believes US airlines estimates are too low and will move higher. The firm upgraded AirTran (NYSE: AAI), AMR Corp (NYSE: AMR), Continental (NYSE: CAL), Delta (NYSE: DAL) and Northwest (NYSE: NWA) to Buy from Neutral and JetBlue (NASDAQ: JBLU) to Neutral from Sell.
JMP Securities upgraded DealerTrack (NASDAQ: TRAK) to OUtperform from Market Perform as they believe 2H08 guidance represents a floor and that 2009 estimates are achievable, among other reasons.
Potash (NYSE: POT) and Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) were raised to Buy from Hold at Soleil.
Argus upgraded Seagate (NYSE: STX) to Buy from Hold on Friday.
Analyst downgrades:
Jefferies downgraded Citrix Systems (NASDAQ: CTXS) to Underperform from Hold as they do not see a catalyst for the company to grow into 2009 consensus estimates. The firm lowered their target price to $25 from $32.
Citigroup said following Lehman's (NYSE: LEH) bankruptcy, they expect a distressed-sale of American International's (NYSE: AIG) MBS portfolio, resulting in the worst quarter yet for the company. Shares were cut to Hold from Buy.
D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) was downgraded to Sell from Hold and Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM) was downgraded to Hold from Sell at Citigroup.
Merrill downgraded Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) to Neutral from Buy and JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) to Underperform from Neutral.
Societe Generale upgraded shares of Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) to Buy from Sell as they believe the company is the European investment bank investors should own as sentiment gradually improves.
Societe Generale also raised Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) to Hold from Sell as they believe it has managed the credit crisis well and that the government bailout of the GSEs will improve investor sentiment.
Citigroup upgraded shares of Kimberly Clark (NYSE: KMB) to Buy from Hold as they expect the company to benefit from falling materials and energy prices. The firm raised their target to $71 from $60.
UST Inc (NYSE: UST) was lifted at Morgan Stanley to Equal Weight from Underweight.
Corning (NYSE: GLW) was upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight at Thomas Weisel.
Analyst downgrades:
Credit Suisse downgraded the U.S. Homebuilders sector to Market Weight from Overweight to reflect deteriorating traffic trends and higher valuations. In addition, the firm cut Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) and KB Home (NYSE: KBH) to Neutral from Outperform.
U.S. stock futures were higher Tuesday morning, pointing to a continuation of Monday's strong rally, albeit with more moderate gains, as the government takes over mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Investors will eye data on pending home sales and wholesale trade due at 10:00 a.m. today, and will also be interested in the OPEC meeting as oil resumed its decline.
Meanwhile, British natural gas producer BG Group PLC abandoned its hostile takeover bid for Origin Energy Ltd., Australia's second-largest power retailer, on Monday, after Origin announced a $7.9 billion coal seam liquefied natural gas joint venture with ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP).
In what seems to be appropriate on a day housing data is on tap, Credit Suisse downgraded four U.S. homebuilders -- Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) and KB Home (NYSE: KBH) -- to Neutral from Outperform due to lower traffic and valuation. The broker also said home prices need to fall 9% further and credit availability must improve to spur sales and restore affordability.
Staying with analyst calls:
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) was downgraded by Merrill Lynch to Neutral from Outperform, citing valuation.
Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) was upgraded by Bernstein from Market Perform to Outperform.
Kimberly Clark (NYSE: KMB) was upgraded by Citigroup from Hold to Buy. The target prices was upped from $60 to $71.
eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) was initiated by Stanford Research with Hold and $26 target price.
The Wall Street Journalreported that a panel of medical experts think Pfizer (NYSE: PFE)'sproposed osteoporosis drug should be restricted to women at high risk of fractures.
Again this week, in a list of earnings expectations for some prominent companies in a variety of sectors, we see an apparent optimism. That is, analysts are anticipating more earnings growth than earnings declines.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect the following companies to report a rise in earnings when compared to the same period of the previous year.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says our problems are so widespread, he sees lots more IndyMacs before we're out.
You don't need me to tell you it's awful out there. You don't need me to tell you that there's no quick fix for any of these things. But what might help you understand why it feels so bad this time is that I have never, in my career, seen so many companies go off track at the same time. This is one unbelievable moment, and it is made more horrible by the day as companies' stocks just get pummeled, causing people to then question the very viability of the companies involved.
First, obviously, are Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take). We don't know what will happen, but we do know that their futures are much darker than their pasts. Their best hope: a Democrat becomes president and shows the usual love to both. But as investments, they are pretty much perma-losers going forward. The losses are that heavy. Yes, it is true that two years from now they will be better, but will the government let them limp through to that? View them as calls on a Democratic win.
We all know that Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take), Wachovia (NYSE: WB) (Cramer's Take), Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take) and National City (NYSE: NCC) (Cramer's Take) are in trouble. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) says it isn't in trouble, but obviously the market doesn't believe management because the stock failed to rally when it said its dividend was safe. Any short-selling hedge fund could hire 30 actors and have them line up at a Washington Mutual or two and get a bank run going. Then we would have to hear about a "hasty" Treasury department plan to bail out WM. Hasty? How can these guys not see it coming?
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the mortgage problem is in the process of cresting, which is why the stocks have largely bottomed.
We are in the heart of default country, and we knew we would be. This is the toughest moment. You need to go back and look at the calendar to realize the astonishing acceleration in defaults. It's simple: This moment two years ago is when the underwriting standards were the lowest, and this is the moment when the defaults will be the highest because the loans are resetting at high levels and most of the lenders, lenders like Countrywide (NYSE: CFC) (Cramer's Take), are more interested in getting as much out of a borrower as possible before kicking him out than working out the loan.
Think about it.
In the second quarter of 2006, the housing industry was going strong. We were in the 7-million-homes-changing-hands mode, and the vast majority of those homes required little money down, with home equity loans being taken out immediately to pay whatever little interest was being charged. These were the moments of the ultimate no-doc-high-fee loans by New Century Financial, Ameriquest, Resmed (Ditech), American Home Mortgage, Novastar, and of course, Countrywide. This was when the homebuilders' mortgage arms lent the most terribly.
Despite the fact that the challenging housing conditions are still persisting, it looks like that some major housing companies are poised to see the light at the end of tunnel. SmartMoney underlines the fact that there has been some encouraging trend for homebuilders during the past few months.
The National Association points out that, "the housing market has shown no evidence of improvement thus far," and the sentiment index is close to a historical low.
Looking at investing in housing stocks, one analyst at T. Rowe Price, Josh Spencer, makes a two-way analysis. From his point of view, housing stocks have a lot of risk if we are talking about their volatility, but they are not as risky when referring to a long-term time horizon due to their current cheap value.
It has been a tough year for investors. We have been dealing with recession fears, housing market worries, high gasoline prices and a very weak U.S dollar. As much as we would love to say that the worst is behind us, we still could be in for some more rocky times ahead. So its best to try to figure out which stocks would be best to avoid for the time being.
Richard Gibbons wrote up a nice piece over on The Motley Fool that looks at some of the stocks that we would be wise to stay away from at this time. Regardless good or bad times, he is convinced there are always ways to make money, but in order to find the winners, it is also necessary to pull out the losers.
So how can we separate out the winners from the losers?
Gibbons seems to have a simple answer for this. He believes there is really no use in wasting our time trying to separate the winners from the losers as there are so many great cheap stocks that could offer us a chance to make money. Gibbons' advice is to not choose ugly and risky companies that could put our hard earned money at risk. To makes this clear, he uses a baseball analogy, expressing his options for the curve balls instead of the fastballs.
For nervous investors and analysts looking for good news on the earnings front, it's been a week of mixed blessings. However, judging by the expectations for the following ten so-called barometers of the U.S. economy, or important sectors of it, things could be looking up. All these companies are scheduled to report quarterly results next week (April 21 to April 25).
These first six companies are expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial to post growth in profits in the most recent quarter, compared to the same period of last year:
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Yahoo!, Cigna and Aegean Marine were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Citigroup upgraded shares of Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) to Buy from Hold as they believe Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) is unlikely to walk away from Yahoo! and that there is potential Microsoft could bid $34/share.
Credit Suisse upgraded Cigna (NYSE: CI) to Outperform from Neutral citing the company's favorable business mix.
Stephens upgraded shares of Aegean Marine (NYSE: ANW) to Overweight from Equal Weight on valuation as they see an attractive entry point at current levels.
OTHER UPGRADES:
JMP Securities raised D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) to Strong Buy from Outperform and Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM) to Outperform from Market Perform.
Lehman Brothers has initiated the home-building industry with a "positive" rating and put price targets on Pulte (NYSE: PHM) of $15, Lennar (NYSE: LEN) at $20, KB Home (NYSE: KBH) at $24, and Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) at $27, according toBriefing.com.
Several analysts have said that growth targets at SAP (NYSE: SAP) "could be overly ambitious," according toMarketWatch.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says before stimulus plans or anything else, we have to get some homes moving.
Hurry. Hurry with the rate cuts. Hurry with the stimulus package. Hurry with the bond insurer bailout. Hurry with the write-offs. Hurry with the Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) limits. Hurry with something, anything, because things are still going down and they are going down with increasing speed.
That's what the market said yesterday and the market is saying today already with this ridiculously low 10-year treasury that has not produced the break down to the 4.5 level of 30-year fixed that we need so badly to clear out the inventory of unsold homes.
It is all so obvious that everything has to be hurried. It doesn't take Toll (NYSE: TOL) (Cramer's Take) saying there is little light at the end of the tunnel this morning or Whirlpool (NYSE: WHR) (Cramer's Take) saying this is the worst market in two decades, but that's the feedback we are getting.